Airtran Pilots looking at ALK and SW Rates

[maxblast72]

Hopefully this guy knows what he is talking about. I have heard the future earnings reports being outstanding before and then company went bankrupt later.

I would hope our CFO could make pretty good predictions about Q2 when over 75% of Q2 is behind us. The range given was $1.70-$1.75/gallon for jet A and RASM down 5.5%-7%.

The only downside to the new projections is that just 6 weeks ago (during the Q1 earning conference call), the company was projecting total RASM to be down only 2 or 3 perecent for Q2. That means the revenue environment for Airtran has weakened significantly in May and early June.

And for as bad as the revenue enviroment is for Airtran, it is even worse for the big guys who depend more on First Class and international for strong RASM performance. I believe most of the big guys are saying RASM has been down around 20% YOY even with the capacity reductions. USAir's CFO even said that RASM performance is worse now than after 9/11.

 

[maxblast72]

In a securities filing on Friday, the airline also reiterated its expectation to remain profitable for 2009, but said it would dramatically reduce fleet plans.

I saw that statement too. I wonder if it means another lowering of projected ASMs for the second half of the year and 2010 or if management is going to try to sell more airplanes. With the tight credit markets right now, you would think we might have difficulty find a buyer with available financing for more 737 sales. The 737 market isn't as strong as it was last year.

 

[Colonel Savage]

Sounds like things have continued to deteriorate; do the capacity reductions mean furloughs again?

 

[Browntothebone]

NEW YORK, June 12 (Reuters) - AirTran Holdings Inc (AAI.N) said it expects unit revenue to fall as much as 7 percent in the second quarter and plans to cut capacity, following a trend seen among most other carriers in the industry.


In a securities filing on Friday, the airline also reiterated its expectation to remain profitable for 2009, but said it would dramatically reduce fleet plans.


AirTran said it expects second-quarter unit revenue, or revenue per available seat mile, to decline between 5.5 percent and 7 percent.
AirTran also said it would cut second-quarter capacity between 7.5 percent and 8 percent.


Airlines have been cutting capacity and trimming costs in an effort to offset weak consumer spending and rising fuel costs.


AirTran said fuel expenses constituted about 27 percent of first-quarter operating costs, but said it had improved its 2009 fuel hedge portfolio.
Shares closed down 1.46 percent, or 8 cents, to $5.40 on the New York Stock Exchange

Bad time to be expecting a big pay raise.

 

[dh82dvr]

Bad time to be expecting a big pay raise.

The current economy might indicate that, however AAI had record 1st Q profit and predict records continuing. That seems to be the time to look for a raise. If there is enough for high executive pay and bonuses, the there is enough to around.

 

[PCL_128]

Sounds like things have continued to deteriorate; do the capacity reductions mean furloughs again?

Deteriorate? Our CFO just publicly stated a few days ago that we are expecting our best year ever. I think things are going just fine, thanks.

 

[scarlet]

If economy was so bad, how can ALK afford to pay these rates. 5 year FO=72.00/hr=SAD

Every Airtran pilot should figure out how much they are losing for not having AK payrates, every month. Then everyone would start to take things into the pilots hands.

I agree everything to be flown by Airtran pilots!!! ,,if we open MCO and BWI bases then they would save alot of cash on hotels, to off set our raises, and we would not have to do a 4-day trips and no choice of day lines or 2 days...etc. 50-75,000/each a month in hotels in MCO and BWI.

We better demand Alaska pay rates and ALPA better produce !! Although we had Andrew Brenner at ASA for our attorney and we got a contract in 6 years, so not impressed with him either. Finally the pilots just HAD ENOUGH !!!!

 

[AKMD80GUY]

Don't get all hung up on the dollar figure. Our pay rates are fine but we gave the company alot of flexability to the tune of 80 additional furloughs in the fall. Don't sell your junior guys out for a few extra bills like we did. BTW I did vote no for ours.

 

[PCL_128]

We better demand Alaska pay rates and ALPA better produce !! Although we had Andrew Brenner at ASA for our attorney and we got a contract in 6 years, so not impressed with him either. Finally the pilots just HAD ENOUGH !!!!

Andrew is top notch. We're lucky to have him. If you want to know why you didn't get a contract for over 5 years, don't look at Andrew, look at your own pilot group and the guy that was in the White House.

 

[BoilerUP]

Andrew is top notch. We're lucky to have him. If you want to know why you didn't get a contract for over 5 years, don't look at Andrew, look at your own pilot group and the guy that was in the White House.

But ASA got their contract while Bush was still President, right?

After Skywest bought them from Delta, right?

 

[Lear70]

Brown, you're a great mentor for Instructor Dude,,, He hasn't quite mastered your ability to flame while also coming across like you're dead serious.

Scarlet, glad to see you finally coming around to what I was saying way back during T.A.'s 1 & 2. Welcome to the party. Hated to see you guys laid off, but happy to see people finally willing to step up and fight the fight!

There's money in the pot. Reduced fleet (expansion) plans will, as some have said, simply result in either fewer (or no) deliveries in 2011 or reduced ASM's in non-profitable markets for the Fall, when there historically is ALWAYS ASM/block hour reductions (which should actually increase profits and are too short-lived to furlough anyone) or, at worst, result in a few more 737 sales, although in this environment, I haven't heard of a single airline BUYING and TAKING DELIVERY of new airframes, so I discount this one considerably. You'd have to fire sale the planes and with the influx of cash from "the most profitable year in AirTran history", it doesn't make much sense to sell planes you can never get back at anywhere NEAR the same money.

Smoke and mirrors. Watch what they DO, not what they "hint at".

 

[Afterprop]

Actually guys/gals . . . we should be negotiating what we should be paid FIVE years from now, since we really should be negotiating our SECOND contract since the 2001 was signed. A 25%-35% pay raise WILL NOT be enough for this FO who is tired of being f*cked over. Throw in contract re-interpretations ranging from quality of life concerns, hotel issues, reserve events; and the on-going loss of income for all of us -- it is past time guys.

There is plenty of money in the pot . . . recently instituted bag charges alone would easily provide a $40/hour pay raise. And if they fail to negotiate in good faith, let's do what has to be done, let the chips far where they may, and let BF explain what happened to their goose.

 

[Colonel Savage]

Deteriorate? Our CFO just publicly stated a few days ago that we are expecting our best year ever...

I was commenting on the economy in general, not AAI. And the question regarding furloughs was in response to capacity reductions mentioned by one of your company officers in a public statement.

 

[PCL_128]

But ASA got their contract while Bush was still President, right?

After Skywest bought them from Delta, right?

They never received the help that they needed and should have gotten from the NMB 2-3 years earlier. Up until the very end the NMB was still stone-walling. It took other factors to finally settle that contract.

 

[maxblast72]

I was commenting on the economy in general, not AAI. And the question regarding furloughs was in response to capacity reductions mentioned by one of your company officers in a public statement.

According to slide #8 from our CFO's presentation last week, Airtran is still projecting 2009 ASMs down 3-4%, 2010 ASMs flat, and 2011 and 2012 up single digits. These projections haven't changed much over the last 6 months.

Of course, if the revenue environment deteriorates further, you could see the projections change. But until you see a publicly announced reduced ASM projection for 2010, pilot staffing levels should stay the same.