Forecasted First Quarter Results

[Cobraair75drvr]

It is very telling who IS making money. It is the airlines that are not throwing money supporting money losing RJ operations. It is what we have been trying to explain to our enlightened mgmt for years. RJs are money burners period. If the mainline has to buy the a/c, guarantee fuel price and guarntee a return of 10%, do all the advertising, etc. There is absolutly no reason some cities can support 10 50 seat flights per day to competing hubs. These cities should have 4-5 flights per day, with at least 3 in the 100-125 seat range and MAYBE and rj or 2 to fill in the off peak times. There seems to be a trend of getting out of contracts, and upgauging a/c, so hopefully in a few years you won't see any, or very few 50 seat money pits. The key will be not to allow too many 70 seaters outside of mainline.

-Gotta be encouraging for DAL and all their "inspired" moey-making INTL routes.....

-More importantly-look who DID make money. Either of those two could be knocking on DAL's door in ATL before long....

-Hmmm..... "inspired" indeed-Steenland and Andersen rock!

-Got that fry hat ready, Gen? I'll show you how to get them nice and golden-brown!

 

[crj567]

It is very telling who IS making money. It is the airlines that are not throwing money supporting money losing RJ operations. It is what we have been trying to explain to our enlightened mgmt for years. RJs are money burners period. If the mainline has to buy the a/c, guarantee fuel price and guarntee a return of 10%, do all the advertising, etc. There is absolutly no reason some cities can support 10 50 seat flights per day to competing hubs. These cities should have 4-5 flights per day, with at least 3 in the 100-125 seat range and MAYBE and rj or 2 to fill in the off peak times. There seems to be a trend of getting out of contracts, and upgauging a/c, so hopefully in a few years you won't see any, or very few 50 seat money pits. The key will be not to allow too many 70 seaters outside of mainline.

One quarter of losses related to failing INTL routes would account for all the money you claim rjs burn up over a decade.....

-Which do you really think loses more money? An rj to DHN with 23 people, or a 767 tooling across the planet with 70 people?

-It is truly amazing how many of you can't see the obvious truth-maybe I wouldn't want to see it either.

 

[Max Powers]

One quarter of losses related to failing INTL routes would account for all the money you claim rjs burn up over a decade.....

-Which do you really think loses more money? An rj to DHN with 23 people, or a 767 tooling across the planet with 70 people?

-It is truly amazing how many of you can't see the obvious truth-maybe I wouldn't want to see it either.

A wise man once said you can never convince a man of the truth if his job depends on a lie.

You both are losing money! RJs and Wide bodies and pretty soon Narrow bodies. Delta and the legacies alike can not fight market realities. These market realities will slowly kill and shrink these companies over the next two decades.

 

[bizicmo]

I know these are forecasted numbers, but how can United more then double the loss of the next closest airline. That seems a little outrageous to me?

 

[contrail67]

A wise man once said you can never convince a man of the truth if his job depends on a lie.

You both are losing money! RJs and Wide bodies and pretty soon Narrow bodies. Delta and the legacies alike can not fight market realities. These market realities will slowly kill and shrink these companies over the next two decades.

So you know what is going to happen the next 20 years?

 

[IXLR8]

So pea-tard....

How ARE those INTL routes doing?

-Smart, really smart.....

What is your source for assuming the INTL routes for Delta are doing so bad?...is CAL doing that much better?..UAL?...AA?....USair? you never mention those other airlines and there load factors...

 

[maxblast72]

I know these are forecasted numbers, but how can United more then double the loss of the next closest airline. That seems a little outrageous to me?

United's per share loss may be the largest, but you also must use the number of outstanding shares to get the true size of the loss. Here are the loss projections with number of shares outstanding included:

1. Delta - $700 million net loss ($1/share - 700 million outstanding shares)
2. United - $610 million net loss ($4.27 share - 143 million outstanding shares)
3. AMR - $425 million net loss ($1.52/share - 280 million outstanding shares)
4. LCC - $240 million net loss ($2/share - 120 million outstanding shares)
5. CAL - $140 million net loss ($1.10/share - 124 million outstanding shares)
6. LUV - $22 million net profit ($0.03/share - 740 million outstanding shares)

 

[Max Powers]

So you know what is going to happen the next 20 years?

Yep the same thing that has happened the past 20 years. Those who are not willing to learn from the mistakes made in the past will be condemned to repeat them.

The last 20 years or so the legacies have been losing market share. And they will continue to lose market share with those numbers. It is inevitable.

 

[maxblast72]

-Who would you rather compete against-if you were running DAL? AirTran-which has practically new planes and pays pretty well, or ALGT which flies 40+yr old burners and pays less than some RJ jobs?

For low aircraft utilization networks like Allegiant's system into leisure destinations like Vegas and Orlando, the 150 seat older airplane (first MD-80 was delivered in the early 1980s) is a good fit. For a high aircraft utilization, higher frequency 7 day a week operation like Airtran's ATL hub, the smaller more efficient platforms (717/737) are better suited to the mission.

Two totally different business models. Airtran hub was built right underneath the Delta umbrella while Allegiant is chasing small-midsize city leisure travelers who want a direct flight. Airtran has proven they can handle competition where Allegiant has not proven that yet.

It took Airtran 10 years to build the largest LCC hub in the world, do you really think Allegiant could just jump in and build a hub quickly if Airtran disappeared?

 

[tzskipper]

I know these are forecasted numbers, but how can United more then double the loss of the next closest airline. That seems a little outrageous to me?

I believe that it is due to the number of outstanding shares of stock that each company has issued. It can really skew any per-share comparison being made.

For example, UAL has about 144m shares outstanding, while DAL has about 698m shares outstanding.

Skipper

 

[Scope out RJ's]

So pea-tard....

How ARE those INTL routes doing?

-Smart, really smart.....

P.S.-I love how you DAL guys assume everyone- everywhere wants to work at your company... I have never applied, been interviewed, or been shown the door as many of you seem so keen to claim...

-Your dump ain't on my list-especially after the merger...

Why should it be? You seem to be doing just fine as the main wal mart greeter during the day, and "head" fry man at Mc Donald's at night. Hey kid, make mine a large!
At least it paid for your subscription to FI!:laugh:

 

[contrail67]

I believe that it is due to the number of outstanding shares of stock that each company has issued. It can really skew any per-share comparison being made.

For example, UAL has about 144m shares outstanding, while DAL has about 698m shares outstanding.

Skipper

Thank you for showing intelligence on this site..I cannot believe some of the questions and comments on here by some....ie: the one you referenced. It is always good to know that there is someone here that has a brain.

 

[Cobraair75drvr]

Geez, you are a genius! I sure wish our mgmt would consult you and pull out of intl. I mean, what a money loser. I think all the airlines shoud pull out of intl. and just fly domestic rjs with 15 flts per day to dhn and the like. Nobody wants to go intl. and no one in this big world of ours wants to come to the US. I agree with you, we are just another Pan Am and there will be nothing left except Allegiant, Airtran and of course the great SW. Thanks Nostrodumbass.

One quarter of losses related to failing INTL routes would account for all the money you claim rjs burn up over a decade.....

-Which do you really think loses more money? An rj to DHN with 23 people, or a 767 tooling across the planet with 70 people?

-It is truly amazing how many of you can't see the obvious truth-maybe I wouldn't want to see it either.

 

[maxblast72]

I don't think anyone said their isn't an international market. It is just not going to be as big as people were predicting just a few years ago. Thus, announcements like the one Delta made a few weeks ago (about post-Labor day ASM cuts) are just beginning. Either every carrier needs to quickly reduce their international ASMs or one big player needs to leave the market completely. Too many seats chasing too little money in today's economic realities.

 

[bizicmo]

Thank you for showing intelligence on this site..I cannot believe some of the questions and comments on here by some....ie: the one you referenced. It is always good to know that there is someone here that has a brain.

What was wrong with that question? I didn't understand why the loss per share was so large. I just assumed they all had about the same shares out there and I was wrong. I guess next time I don't understand something I will just stay in the dark.