Expected MESA shutdown?

[jeroom]

I see this discussion over and over again and I always wonder why people think Mesa would just shut down and liquidate without first going into bankruptcy. Isn't it more likely that Mesa would go into bankruptcy, restructure, and then continue as a somewhat smaller company?

I see greed at an employee level in those discussions if you ask me... (like: Am I going to benefit from the MESA demise??)

 

[CX880]

Mesa will be gone before spring. I'm saying this because JO is not doing anything about the fact that they keep losing money, nevermind their lawsuits and cash problems. Hopeing to limp by with Delta money is not a strategy. I'm thinking March of 09, you heard it here first! Bankruptcy is not an option because most likely it will lead to liquidation.

 

[rickair7777]

It sounds like you know what you are talking about but does that necessarily mean Mesa's customers would automatically dump them if they are still the cheapest out there?

Under normal circumstances the codeshares would not necessarily fire mesa just because they went into Ch.11.

But under the current circumstances, everyone is trying to dump capacity...a mesa BK would simply create an opportunity to do so painlessly via the BK clause.

I'm certain DAL would dump them (duh), I'm pretty sure airways would, and UAL might also. It would only take one of the three to put an end to this saga.

Airways might want to keep the 900's...so they might fire them and then re-negotiate some deal to keep the 900s only. Maybe.

 

[Broke in CVG]

I see greed at an employee level in those discussions if you ask me... (like: Am I going to benefit from the MESA demise??)

Under the current conditions, no one will really benefit short term with Mesa being liquidated as all UAL, DL & USAir are looking to reduce capacity. Most of Mesa's flying would probably not be replaced.

However, it might mean that other Regionals wouldn't have to bear the brunt of further capacity cuts.

 

[Metro752]

Airways might want to keep the 900's...so they might fire them and then re-negotiate some deal to keep the 900s only. Maybe.

Get rid of all the 900s!

 

[Mach]

Mesa will never die. It sold its soul to the devil.

 

[CX880]

Mesa will never die. It sold its soul to the devil.

That means they have 3 wishes, they've already used some for aloha, de-listing and the bonds. Delta is to go.

 

[laserman2431]

Let's hope it works out for all. MESA bashing aside, there are livelihoods at stake.

This is true. I have never felt animosity toward the Mesa pilots. They are just trying to eke out a living in this mess like the rest of us. However, I will not pity them if they do find themselves out of a job. They know the deal.

Also, I could possibly benefit from Mesa biting the dust. I do not feel bad about hoping for that outcome. I admit right here that I check their stock price every day and I actively wish the company will go out of business. Its nothing personal against their pilots. I hope the company dies and I will personally benefit from it.

 

[ePilot22]

Under the current conditions, no one will really benefit short term with Mesa being liquidated as all UAL, DL & USAir are looking to reduce capacity. Most of Mesa's flying would probably not be replaced.

However, it might mean that other Regionals wouldn't have to bear the brunt of further capacity cuts.

I think Great Lakes would benefit. They have more routes to fly than aircraft to fly them. When MESA goes to liquidate Lakes can pick those 1900s up for cheap. They'll continue to grow flying the EAS routes. And I don't see USAir or UAL reducing all the flying that MESA does, so some regionals would get additional flying.






eP.

 

[lowlycfi]

I think Great Lakes would benefit. They have more routes to fly than aircraft to fly them. When MESA goes to liquidate Lakes can pick those 1900s up for cheap. They'll continue to grow flying the EAS routes. And I don't see USAir or UAL reducing all the flying that MESA does, so some regionals would get additional flying.






eP.

You do know that Air Midwest is no longer around, right?

 

[flyboyike]

I see this discussion over and over again and I always wonder why people think Mesa would just shut down and liquidate without first going into bankruptcy. Isn't it more likely that Mesa would go into bankruptcy, restructure, and then continue as a somewhat smaller company?

They'd have a hard time securing restructuring financing in this economy.

 

[JumpersAway]

If Mesa dies off, there won't be much, if any, benefit to reap. The airlines are cutting capacity, and looking to "ax" 50 seat flying. The airlines that use the MAG services would simply shed the flying into oblivion. There would be nothing to pick up. However, there could be one small benefit- Airlines that would otherwise lose 50 seat flying may not be as impacted with cut backs, as MAG would have taken the brunt of it.

Sorry to bust anyones bubble, but looks like we are, in the best case scenario, stuck where we are for a long, long, long, long time. Quick upgrades, and a move to another airline are rapidly slipping away, or gone completely, with the exception of a lucky few. In essence, we are now the same as a mainline carrier- no growth, just stagnation and furloughes with no quick change in sight.

 

[ePilot22]

You do know that Air Midwest is no longer around, right?

Sure do. Why buy the 1900s when you can wait for MESA to go BK and pick them up cheap in a liquidation sale? When Big Sky stop operations, Lakes wanted those 1900s which were leased from MESA, but MESA would only sell them, not lease. Lakes said ok, we'll wait. Lakes will also pick up our (SkyWest's) Brasilias when they start to come off line in the fall.





eP.

 

[Minimaniac]

IF Mesa were to go into BK...

Delta would take advantage of their ability to void the contract.

Without the income afforded by the DL contract, Mesa will not be able to secure exit financing.

Mesa aircraft will be sold to raise capital to cover debts.

The CRJ 900 aircraft will be sold, as they have the highest value in the current market.

Look for the Freedom CRJ 900 aircraft to end up at Mesaba or Pinnacle.

Look for the US Airways CRJ 900's to end up over with mother Delta too. This, however, might be a more complicated transaction.

The US Airways CRJ 900 flying will be replaced by another carrier, and not become a capacity reduction. Republic and Skywest will be the two final suitors. Perhaps Republic will try to accquire the Compass 175's, in exchange for the Mesa CRJ 900's in Airways paint. This would give Airways more Embraers and more commonality in product, and it would give Delta a similar benefit, as they favor the CRJ 900.

United will jump on the bandwagon and end at least part of its Mesa contract. Look for Skywest to gain the CRj 700 flying and aircraft. Mesa will continue to operate some of its CRj 200 aircraft for United under a modified contract.

Comair or ASA will end up with the leftover CRJ 200's from United's Mesa flying. These aircraft will be flown for Delta in place of the missing 50 seat Embraer capacity, though probably at a ratio of 1 "new" CRJ for every 2 145's removed from the DCI fleet.

The biggest question is what comes of the Mesa Dash 8's... They serve a necessary role overall, so somewone will pick them up. Perhaps Great Lakes will pick up a new fleet type, or Commutair will get a whole new arena to play in. Unfortunately, i think Piedmont will balk at the opportunity (foolishly).

Mesa will exit bankruptcy at about 1/4 to 1/3 of its original size, with a fleet of CRJ 200's being flown for United under a relatively stable contract.

In 4 years, all of the above mentioned mainline partners will completely forget about what happened, and award new aircraft and flying to Mesa, thus beginning the cycle anew.

 

[CX880]

IF Mesa were to go into BK...

Delta would take advantage of their ability to void the contract.

Without the income afforded by the DL contract, Mesa will not be able to secure exit financing.

Mesa aircraft will be sold to raise capital to cover debts.

The CRJ 900 aircraft will be sold, as they have the highest value in the current market.

Look for the Freedom CRJ 900 aircraft to end up at Mesaba or Pinnacle.

Look for the US Airways CRJ 900's to end up over with mother Delta too. This, however, might be a more complicated transaction.

The US Airways CRJ 900 flying will be replaced by another carrier, and not become a capacity reduction. Republic and Skywest will be the two final suitors. Perhaps Republic will try to accquire the Compass 175's, in exchange for the Mesa CRJ 900's in Airways paint. This would give Airways more Embraers and more commonality in product, and it would give Delta a similar benefit, as they favor the CRJ 900.

United will jump on the bandwagon and end at least part of its Mesa contract. Look for Skywest to gain the CRj 700 flying and aircraft. Mesa will continue to operate some of its CRj 200 aircraft for United under a modified contract.

Comair or ASA will end up with the leftover CRJ 200's from United's Mesa flying. These aircraft will be flown for Delta in place of the missing 50 seat Embraer capacity, though probably at a ratio of 1 "new" CRJ for every 2 145's removed from the DCI fleet.

The biggest question is what comes of the Mesa Dash 8's... They serve a necessary role overall, so somewone will pick them up. Perhaps Great Lakes will pick up a new fleet type, or Commutair will get a whole new arena to play in. Unfortunately, i think Piedmont will balk at the opportunity (foolishly).

Mesa will exit bankruptcy at about 1/4 to 1/3 of its original size, with a fleet of CRJ 200's being flown for United under a relatively stable contract.

In 4 years, all of the above mentioned mainline partners will completely forget about what happened, and award new aircraft and flying to Mesa, thus beginning the cycle anew.

There is just one problem, why would UA want Mesa to operate CRJ 200s? Because Mesa would do it for free? They've been trying to get rid of Mesa for a long time now.