Midwest ungetting new aircrafts

[deadstick]

heard from a buddy who works there that it is all just bluff. There is replacement coming in 2009, signed already, airbus are coming. training dept said it will cost them so much money to retrain everybody that that alone will take them out.....If United has to train 100 guys no big deal, but an airline with about 360 active pilots, good luck. And the restucturing firm I guess said that 25 aircraft is not enough to survive.But that's just what i heard

One theory base on the DAL/NWA deal...
Taking into account these pieces:
-The rumor of a replacement coming in 2009
-DAL/NWA will come together in 2008/9.
-NWA just announced they are parking DC9's.
-NWA cannot assimilate MidEx and take the MKE gates until after the merger (to help DOJ feel good about signing off on the deal).
-Parking the 80's by Sept is after the heavy summer travel season.

---Conclusion: This is a move to put MidEx in a hold until NWA takes over. Parking the 80's is to stop/slow the bleeding. Besides, NWA doesn't want them. I imagine it will be hard to operate economically with only 25 planes, but if they can take Midwest into Ch11, break the Skywest, as well as other contracts, then NWA can walk in. The 2009 replacement rumor is just to pascify the public/employees until it's announced "NWA has purchased the TPG share of Midwest and all the airplanes are going to get a new paint job tonight. Tomorrow, NWA is Milwaukee's 'Hometown Airline'."

Time will tell.

 

[fam62c]

I still don't get the strategy, though. There's no way that NWA will get most of the gates. Their entire strategy was to keep competition out of MKE. If they bankrupt MEH, then competition will flood MKE. The DOT/DOJ will never let them have a monopoly on the gates/slots after a bankruptcy.

Their strategy was to keep competition out of MKE before fuel prices went up 100%; I think they have much bigger problems now, survival being the big one. Also, I don't think there would be a big rush of competitors flooding MKE in this environment; airlines are shrinking not growing. NWA/Airlink and AAI will skim off the cream and , frankly, in this environment there's lots of markets that just won't work out of MKE anymore. Unlike the good old days when fuel was cheap you just won't be able to find enough customers willing to pay the high prices to make many of the routes profitable. Until fuel prices recede there will have to be a big increase in ticket prices and this will cause the demand for air travel to crash in the short term. Capacity will need to come way down to meet the new (lowered) demand. Cities like MKE are going to lose a lot of direct service if these fuel prices continue. MKE passengers will need to get used to having a connecting flight or driving to Chicago to get to some of the cities that have direct flights to now. It will be interesting to see what the Midwest route system will look like with 25 planes. In the end, I just don't see Midwest as being a viable, stand alone carrier. The economy of scale was bad enough with 37 planes and with 25 planes it's even worse. You need to achieve "critical mass" or your fixed costs kill you. After the layoffs Midwest will have a high concentration of expensive, senior employees and that's not good.

 

[GOULET!]

The Midwest route structure will consist of only non-stops from Milwaukee to the East Coast and possibly Florida. All the West Coast traffic will stop in KC....if they keep the West Coast destinations. Midwest can not shrink and be profitable.

 

[carl p]

Shrinking to profitability is nearly impossible.

 

[Propsync]

All the West Coast traffic will stop in KC....if they keep the West Coast destinations. Midwest can not shrink and be profitable.

I'm with you there. The 'PR' person said they'll stop in KC to pick up more passengers. Right.

Can't help but apply logic here. Say you have two round trips on a 150 seat airplane that goes to, uh, let's say LAX. They're full. You decide to replace those with two round trips with 88 seat airplanes. Oh, and add a fuel stop. So you cut capacity almost in half and added two stages. What has been gained? Half-full aircraft to KC to pick up the rest that beat MKE origin PAX to the tickets to get to LAX. Brilliant, just brilliant.

I put another vote on the West coast getting cancelled, too. Once again, fleet decisions are killing Midwest.

 

[CaptSeth]

The problem is that MKE and MCI are both secondary markets. If the airplane was starting off in an ORD, LGA, or DCA, I'd say they had a pretty good shot with a stop in MCI, but there is insufficient O & D between MKE and MCI to get the segment yields to a reasonable level.

The other problem is obviously the fleet. 88 seats won't produce the revenue base they need. I lived through the opposite scenario, where the fleet type was too large for the markets, and the outcome was not pleasant.

Vanguard made a pretty good show at the end there, if they had focused on that city from the start they might still be here today. I hope Midex has enough cash to weather the storm and come out the other side.

 

[ilinipilot]

Its pretty obvious what is going to happen just like STL. Skywest will stay in MKE and feed limited routes and offer point to point for thr business travelers. DL and NW will pick up the pieces they want and Midwest will be a thing of the past.

D

 

[carl p]

They could always throw some more seats in those 71's. I'm not sure of the cost to do so, but we maintain business class and still get 117 out of them.

 

[10nCLR]

The Midwest route structure will consist of only non-stops from Milwaukee to the East Coast and possibly Florida. All the West Coast traffic will stop in KC....if they keep the West Coast destinations. Midwest can not shrink and be profitable.

Don't forget about the MKE-LAS flts. They are always full.

 

[CitationLover]

Don't forget about the MKE-LAS flts. They are always full.

and the yield sucks..........

us airways is also full w/ a crappy yield.
air tran is also full w/ a crappy yield.

 

[Max Powers]

Shrinking to profitability is nearly impossible.

Well where going to try it in Sept. so I hope your wrong.

 

[CitationLover]

Well where going to try it in Sept. so I hope your wrong.

he's not, it will fail at AAI too.

make them fire those old, crusty bastards in the training department. if they fire the probies, that will be a disgrace.

 

[Colonel Savage]

he's not, it will fail at AAI too.

make them fire those old, crusty bastards in the training department. if they fire the probies, that will be a disgrace.

Just a technical question...If they fire the crusties, who will train all the displacements?

And I agree firing the probies is way wrong...

 

[PCL_128]

Just a technical question...If they fire the crusties, who will train all the displacements?

Line pilots that get awarded training dept positions. You know, the guys that should have been doing it all along so we don't have to hear constantly "back in 1975 on the -9......"

 

[PCL_128]

he's not, it will fail at AAI too.

We aren't really shrinking here. At least not yet. No loss of airframes has been announced, and we're only reducing ASMs by 5% compared to last September. We're holding steady rather than shrinking at this point.

if they fire the probies, that will be a disgrace.

Based on what I'm hearing from guys on the line, every remaining pilot would burn the place to the ground if the probies are fired. They won't go through with it. They know that they can't win that battle.