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Andy said:
Holding your own against Southwest? Maybe. But your May 2008 passenger yield only increased 1.2% year over year. And that's with a 3.3% load factor increase.
The planes are more full, but F9's still selling their tickets in the lower fare buckets. That's the Southwest effect.
Click to expand...

That's essentially what I posted earlier. SWA's hedging is the problem when it comes to our competing with them. Our load factors are up but we are losing money...not good.
 
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"spineless and uniformed."


The problem is, with no spine it's very hard to stand up straight and look good in my Uniform.

Glad I hung it up for good...But I am still working on fashioning a spine from some wolmanized lumber I have in the garage.

Seriously, I bought a R/T Ticket on F9 a few years back. EXCELLENT Airline, with great employees, service, aircraft etc.

Good Luck to all of you out there in this Industry, just don't get caught like a "deer in the headlights".

Denial and wishful thinking can be a powerful thing...But doing nothing and hoping for something really isn't a Plan.

YKMKR
 
I'll throw in my .02. First, I love F9, it's a first rate airline with great service. The problem, however, isn't JUST oil... it's finding financing going forward. With the news that SWA is bolstering DEN service, it gets harder and harder to find an investor willing to lend in that arena. (Try to borrow to start a hamburger joint next door to Micky D's).... then factor in oil and you've got the ballpark where F9 is playing.
Best of luck to all, but the be prepared advice is worth listening to.
 
Jmoney said:
I do think what SWA is doing is wrong. They should have stayed the size they were 5 yrs ago and profited greatly off the cost effectiveness they had.

Their growth will just lead them down the same path all the legacies went down. Getting too large just leads to bankruptcy.... Especially for a domestic business like SWA. They have lost their "economy of scale" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_scale (in other words-as they become larger, thier profit margin will shrink) and they are now just being predatory.

It is a shame SWA has to screw with places that don't matter to them. They used to do a smart thing by avoiding major hubs-now they have just started to go after other airlines because they can.

I feel bad for Frontier people-you all have built a good airline. Just be assured that SWA will pay for what they are doing-the economics will catch up to them one day as well.

-Good Luck!
Click to expand...

This post is unreal !!!! Now you are saying Southwest should not have grown over the last 5 years. What about Spirt, Airtran, Allegiant, FRONTIER? Should these airlines not have grown either?
And what does "SWA has to screw with places that don't matter to them" ? How do you know how SWA "feels" about Denver?
Stupid,liberal post !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
fool737700 said:
This post is unreal !!!! Now you are saying Southwest should not have grown over the last 5 years. What about Spirt, Airtran, Allegiant, FRONTIER? Should these airlines not have grown either?
And what does "SWA has to screw with places that don't matter to them" ? How do you know how SWA "feels" about Denver?
Stupid,liberal post !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Click to expand...

How is that "LIBERAL".....I agreed with you up until that point. Actually not growing and not changing is very conservative.
 
Andy said:
Reverse, where'd you get that data from? Curious; I haven't seen anything indicating cash burn.
I also haven't seen squat on DIP financing, but have heard that they're being offered loan shark rates. Friday's move in oil won't help.
Click to expand...

Looks like you found it in the 5/28 8K:

Operating loss for 4/11 to 4/30 (20 days): $12.3 million. $600,000/day.

I didn't use the phrase "cash burn" but I suppose that's what a company in bankruptcy has to do, for obvious reasons.

I really do hope somebody at F9 can stomp on a rudder pretty soon and get back to straight and level. Good luck F9ers.
 
Cash Burn

is a bit high due to 1 time charges due to BK proceedings. Still losing but not at that rate, BK is a racket for sure. F9 has boiled the number of potential DIP providers to about 12 or so. They are now looking for the best deal, NO shortage of people willing roll the dice, its getting the best deal possible. UA downsizing announcement actually helps the case.... Fat lady has yet to sig, but can be heard clearing her throat....Stay tuned for a DIP announcement in a few weeks, that will tell the tale....
 
YGTBSM! C'mon, how can that happen? Must have had a riot at the gate. Are you sure?

Yes Mr Savage that did happen. I flew in that evening as all the 75's were coming in. After they unloaded them a few crews flew them back out empty to where the leasing companies wanted them. The next A.M. there were a few left. On the 11:00 news that night they interviewed the stranded Pax. That is when the first class upgrade stories came out. It was $400.00 one couple was out.
 
stratus72 said:
That's essentially what I posted earlier. SWA's hedging is the problem when it comes to our competing with them. Our load factors are up but we are losing money...not good.
Click to expand...
Why is it always SW and our hedging. I do not have the time to look it up myself at the moment but I am sure somebody WILL correct me if I am not correct (I am not). Frontiers NON fuel costs are significantly higher than ours. SO even with a level playing field on fuel, we still would have a big cost advantage. Everybody thinks when our hedges run out....... Guess what we are still will be either making money or loosing a hell of a lot less money than nearly everybody else. Its a race to see who runs out of cash first. Guess where my vote will go???
 
ChinaClipper said:
Cash burn is a bit high due to 1 time charges due to BK proceedings. Still losing but not at that rate, BK is a racket for sure.
Click to expand...

The number I posted ($600,000 per day) was OPERATING loss and did not include one-time charges due to bankruptcy proceedings.

That number (net loss) was $823,000 per day.

F9's operating loss might be less now due to the pay concessions that went into effect and maybe some fare increases, but the price of jet-A has continued to rise since April, so higher fuel expenses probably offset lower labor costs and higher revenues.

Not trying to pile on, just trying to keep the thread accurate. Sorry.
 
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Max Powers said:
How is that "LIBERAL".....I agreed with you up until that point. Actually not growing and not changing is very conservative.
Click to expand...

Maybe cause liberals like to blame their problems on big business. Most conservatives believe that the free market will determine the winners and losers. Liberals think the big government is great and should determine the winners and losers based on how they feel instead of using actual performance.

Instead of blaming another well run airline for their problems, Frontier management should be trying to figure out how they got in this situation in the first place (they entered Bankruptcy well before the biggest part of the fuel spike and credit card company changed their holdback policy due to Frontier's performance over the last few years, not over a couple of days).
 
maxblast72 said:
Maybe cause liberals like to blame their problems on big business. Most conservatives believe that the free market will determine the winners and losers. Liberals think the big government is great and should determine the winners and losers based on how they feel instead of using actual performance.
Click to expand...

Nonsense. You have no more of an idea what a liberal is than you do of what a conservative is. But what you are saying is stylishly in vogue these days.

What you are parroting is what the radio talk show hosts, email forwarders, and fake news broadcasters toss around 24/7. Just because they say it doesn't make it so.
 
ChinaClipper said:
is a bit high due to 1 time charges due to BK proceedings. Still losing but not at that rate, BK is a racket for sure. F9 has boiled the number of potential DIP providers to about 12 or so. They are now looking for the best deal, NO shortage of people willing roll the dice, its getting the best deal possible. UA downsizing announcement actually helps the case.... Fat lady has yet to sig, but can be heard clearing her throat....Stay tuned for a DIP announcement in a few weeks, that will tell the tale....
Click to expand...

Isn't loaning an airline money kinda like lending cash to a meth addict and expecting to get it back? If a lender is looking for a for a write off, then why not make a big donation to a charity or something instead of loaning it to an airline that has less than a 50/50 chance of being around by the end of the year?
 
Jmoney said:
I do think what SWA is doing is wrong. They should have stayed the size they were 5 yrs ago and profited greatly off the cost effectiveness they had.

Their growth will just lead them down the same path all the legacies went down. Getting too large just leads to bankruptcy.... Especially for a domestic business like SWA. They have lost their "economy of scale" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_scale (in other words-as they become larger, thier profit margin will shrink) and they are now just being predatory.

It is a shame SWA has to screw with places that don't matter to them. They used to do a smart thing by avoiding major hubs-now they have just started to go after other airlines because they can.

I feel bad for Frontier people-you all have built a good airline. Just be assured that SWA will pay for what they are doing-the economics will catch up to them one day as well.

-Good Luck!
Click to expand...



It's all Southwest fault; if thats what you think, I should be able to sell you some property in the tropics for little or nothing.
The airline industry in the U.S. have been trying to get their financial houses in order for years. We are still waiting with the idea that time definitely waits for no one.
Just look at the U.S. auto industry, they have all the time in the world.
 
ChinaClipper said:
is a bit high due to 1 time charges due to BK proceedings. Still losing but not at that rate, BK is a racket for sure. F9 has boiled the number of potential DIP providers to about 12 or so. They are now looking for the best deal, NO shortage of people willing roll the dice, its getting the best deal possible. UA downsizing announcement actually helps the case.... Fat lady has yet to sig, but can be heard clearing her throat....Stay tuned for a DIP announcement in a few weeks, that will tell the tale....
Click to expand...

First off, BK is a huge drain of assets. I know that many on this board seem to think that BK's a magic bullet that allows the company in BK to have an unfair advantage. No. BK forces airlines to go for short term cash flows - which comes at a very high price. That's why more companies die in BK than survive. F9, with its size, is right on the cusp of whether or not it will survive. It's very dicey; I don't give them very good odds. Sorry if this ticks some off; I'm just being honest.

As for DIP financing, there's not a snowball's chance in hades that 12 investment banks are lining up with DIP financing. The only way that the number would be that high is if (vulture) hedge funds are also making DIP offers. I can tell you that the investment banks - C, MER, LEH, GS, JPM, BCS, DB, USB - have their own difficulties and from what I've read, C is completely out of the IB game for now. LEH may make an offer, but word is that they've been pulling their IB offers; quite frankly, they've got their own liquidity crisis. JPM's got its hands full with the BSC acquisition. BCS is talking to sovereign wealth funds because they're short on capital. DB's rumored to be next to be looking for additional capital. I don't know about USB; haven't been following them. GS is bulletproof.
In all, this is an extremely difficult time to try to raise DIP financing and any offers that F9 receives will not be at very good rates.

For everyone at F9, good luck. Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.
 
Tiger Woods gonna front da DIP....I guarantee and DEN F9 gonna be just fine, did dat rhyme? It sound divine!
 
yeah, you're defensive. Relax. By the way, your numbers are wrong. Look it up before you talk next time. YOu know what, if it makes you feel better, I agree, SW is in a great position and smart business choices put them there. I'm in no way ragging on SW.
 
stratus72 said:
yeah, you're defensive. Relax. By the way, your numbers are wrong. Look it up before you talk next time. YOu know what, if it makes you feel better, I agree, SW is in a great position and smart business choices put them there. I'm in no way ragging on SW.
Click to expand...

I don't know who this was directed at, by my numbers are right out of F9's 8K. If they're wrong, the SEC might be interested.
 
So you're saying that SWA should have remained dormant while newer airlines like JetBlue, AirTrain, Virgin, Skybus, etc. are gobbling up market share? I don't think that's sound business sense. As far as them screwing with other airlines that don't matter to them, I think they're just going to where the paying passengers are.

Maybe I'm wrong, but are you implying that Frontier's problems are SWA's fault?


As for your statement that "Just be assured that SWA will pay for what they are doing-the economics will catch up to them one day as well." I'm sure that none of the employees at Southwest are hoping for some karmic retribution to any other airlines.

Personally, I think Southwest is the most above-board, and straight-dealing airline in business today.



Jmoney said:
I do think what SWA is doing is wrong. They should have stayed the size they were 5 yrs ago and profited greatly off the cost effectiveness they had.

Their growth will just lead them down the same path all the legacies went down. Getting too large just leads to bankruptcy.... Especially for a domestic business like SWA. They have lost their "economy of scale" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_scale (in other words-as they become larger, thier profit margin will shrink) and they are now just being predatory.

It is a shame SWA has to screw with places that don't matter to them. They used to do a smart thing by avoiding major hubs-now they have just started to go after other airlines because they can.

I feel bad for Frontier people-you all have built a good airline. Just be assured that SWA will pay for what they are doing-the economics will catch up to them one day as well.

-Good Luck!
Click to expand...
 
"Personally, I think Southwest is the most above-board, and straight-dealing airline in business today.[/quote]"

That's funny. I recall a little story in the news about mx issues, the luv fest with faa inspectors, etc. I do however agree with you that SWA has every right to grow and F9 is in BK primarily due to bad management decisions in the past...oil isn't helping either.
 
FYI, the "whistleblower" was a guy who applied for a job at Southwest and got passed over for another FAA employee.

The whole mx deal was a fiasco. Southwest self-reported, and everything they did was approved by Boeing. Total bs basically from Oberstar in an election year.
 
OH Yeah, BK is fair,

So tell me, how is it that UAL goatfu**ed the rest of the players for four freakin' years while they undercut other airlines fares and shafted those they owed money to? How do you not pay your bills and charge 79 bucks for a transcon?

Yeah, that's fair. At least the BK rules have changed since then. Hell, for all I know my company will be longing for the day when you could hide AND cut the competitions throat.
 
We're suppossed to receive an update as early as today regarding our BK/DIP situation. I'll post it if it's actual news.
 
"Maybe I'm wrong, but are you implying that Frontier's problems are SWA's fault?"

Using this logic then UAL's problems in DEN are because of Frontier right?
 
What is LUV's CASM excluding fuel?

Skybus said:
I do not have the time to look it up myself at the moment but I am sure somebody WILL correct me if I am not correct (I am not). Frontiers NON fuel costs are significantly higher than ours.
Click to expand...

What is LUV's Cost per ASM excluding fuel? Frontier's was reported at 6.29 cents for 2007. My understanding is that it is approaching the 6.00 cent barrier this quarter. It's got to be pretty close to LUVs.
 

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