CAL/UAL merger statistics

[Andy]

The reality will probably be that the career expecations at both carriers will be similar by the time a merger is announced.
There are always a few that want a windfall from whatever SLI methodology they champion(especially the DOH guys), but for the most part, everyone I speak to would be content with something similar to relative seniority. I know that's too simplistic and not exactlty how it works but in the end that's probably the closest approximation of "fairness".

Anyone who expects something other than relative seniority with slight tweaks is setting up for a big disappointment.
DOH is a nonstarter.

 

[Andy]

Get real dude. CAL has over 100 a/c deliveries scheduled for the next three years. UAL does not have a SINGLE new a/c on order. CAL just ordered an additional 8 777's. UAL lost over a half a billion dollars in a single quarter. New hires at CAL on the 73 are line holders after 4 weeks. The 756 is also avial to new hires. Career expectations could not be further apart.

UAL was once a fantastic and powerful airline. It is no longer. Which airline needs this merger more? If you think its CAL you are simply ignoring the numbers. With any luck there will be no CAL/UAL merger and none of this will matter.

You seem unable to grasp the impact CAL of being frozen out of SkyTeam. Ask your senior management how it will impact future growth. CAL may have 6 options, but only 2 are workable. Join One World or join Star Alliance.
The cost of entry to both alliances will be for CAL to merge.

New hires at CAL being line holders on the 73 in 4 weeks? Great, but you need newhires for that to mean anything. CAL's stopped hiring.
As for aircraft, future orders have a funny way of turning into options during economic downturns. And being the redheaded stepchild in a global alliance doesn't help.

 

[ATRCA]

..................ok.....................

 

[Furloughed80]

Join One World or join Star Alliance.
The cost of entry to both alliances will be for CAL to merge.

Really? The only possible way to join another alliance is to merge?

 

[Andy]

Really? The only possible way to join another alliance is to merge?

No, certainly not. But what's AMR's incentive to let CAL into One World? What's UAL's incentive to CAL into Star Alliance?
CAL creates overlap in both alliances. Who do you think would get frozen out of Star Alliance if UAL and CAL merged?
DAL/NWA's merger has a huge impact on the alliances.

 

[Flopgut]

Quasi-legitimate Gordon Bethune stated CAL/UAL was a "checkmate". I'm inclined to believe him on that. I'm afraid that re-regulation and the currently permissive political climate are pressuring our greed wracked leaders into whatever deal they can make to get themselves paid. (of course oil as well) Hence UAL/LCC. If we want govt to step in [re-reg] we need our union leader to start moving that direction. Prater needs to start talking fuel price rationing for airlines and to also point out that the FAA can't oversee airlines the size they are now, and that they are less equal to the task when airlines are larger. (I personally don't believe that, but it's a good talking point) Here's what I think is going to happen after the May ALPA Exec Board meeting: Prater changes his tune or he's out. JMHO.

 

[Furloughed80]

The Star Alliance has been looking for a carrier with a significant hub in NYC for years. CAL might be their best bet.

 

[Andy]

The Star Alliance has been looking for a carrier with a significant hub in NYC for years. CAL might be their best bet.

UAL's been taking apart the NYC hub over the last year. It makes a UAL/CAL merger a lot easier to get regulatory approval.
Other than ORD/CLE, there's no hub issues.

With a UAL/LCC merger, the overlap at IAD/DCA/BWI would be a problem.

If you look at the hubs of a combined CAL/UAL, it's a very nice fit. GUA, LAX, SFO, DEN, IAH, ORD, EWR, IAD. The only hole is in the southeast. It'd be nice to see a hub built in FLL or some other large airport in the area.

 

[MINIME]

JPMorgan and Wall Street like UAL/LCC better cause it would create more synergies. Wall Street doesn't appear to like anything that does not trim fat. Thus the reason why they don't seem to really like the DAL/NWA deal. They expected more fat to be trimmed. As of right now it doesn't appear that that's going to happen.

On another note, I'd bet that they would just love an AA/CAL deal. Lots and lots of synergies there. I think the whole state of Texas would be turned upside down if that mess comes to pass. Again, I'm wrong at least twice a day, this is probably no exception. Andy, what do you think?

 

[Andy]

Minime, I was surprised by the sharp selloff of DAL and NWA stock. Of course, it seems like the bottom's fallen out of all airline stocks.
JPMorgan probably doesn't care who merges; they'll generate fees off of it no matter which carriers merge. I'm not sure if it's a smokescreen; there probably are some talks between UAL and LCC. It's a question on which merger - UAL with LCC or CAL - is going to be able to get more capital from Wall Street. Let's face it - Tilton's bent on merging and it feels like it'll happen very soon.
The Airways guys on USAviation think it's going to be LCC/UAL. Chip Munn is saying that it'll be announced today, Friday. That almost guarantees that UAL will not be merging with LCC.

I suppose that if UAL merged with LCC, you'd probably see AMR and CAL merge.

 

[AWACoff]

You seem unable to grasp the impact CAL of being frozen out of SkyTeam. Ask your senior management how it will impact future growth. CAL may have 6 options, but only 2 are workable. Join One World or join Star Alliance.
The cost of entry to both alliances will be for CAL to merge.
quote]

Obviously the point of sharing flights between airlines is to spread their reach. A merger is not required. If there is enough money to be made, CAL will be allowed into the venture.

As far as hubs are concerned, GUA is not a hub or base for CAL or United.

NWA and Delta have not merged. It is a proposed merger and nothing more at this point.

 

[Andy]

As far as hubs are concerned, GUA is not a hub or base for CAL or United.

NWA and Delta have not merged. It is a proposed merger and nothing more at this point.

My bad - GUM. I had also originally put down HOU, but that's Hobby, not Intercontinental (IAH).

You think that NWA and Delta won't be approved? Why?

 

[Jonny Sacko]

Ok, were's splitting hairs, I get it. GUA GUM. Cause I was pretty sure you were based out there. I'm pickin up what chu throwin down!

 

[AWACoff]

Got Pugua?

 

[Andy]

Ok, were's splitting hairs, I get it. GUA GUM. Cause I was pretty sure you were based out there. I'm pickin up what chu throwin down!

That was ignorance on my part; my apologies for using the wrong identifier.

 

[Andy]

I'd just like to add that there's some serious bad juju happening in the long bond market right now. If the yields keep climbing like they have recently, we may very well be done with mergers in this cycle - that's because investment capital is going to become nonexistant. So all of this may be moot if airlines can't find any additional capital for mergers.

The upshot of this for the consumer is that 30 year fixed rates for mortgages are going to continue to rise. And that's not going to be good for the airline industry.

 

[Sonny Crockett]

CAL Continental Air profiled in Inside Wall Street section of Business Week (17.68 )

Business Week reports now that Northwest and Delta airlines have agreed to merge, expect more deals to take off. "In 30 days it is likely Continental Airlines (CAL) will either acquire or merge with UAL (UAUA)," says Vincent Carrino, president of sBrookhaven Capital Management, which has accumulated shares of both. The surging price of oil has wreaked havoc on the airlines' earnings and sunk their stock. Carrino says the big impetus for consolidation is to let the airlines slash capacity (number of flights and seats) by 10% and boost fares to cope with the rising price of oil, which hit $119 a barrel on Apr. 22. Carrino predicts UAL will be the surviving company, with Continental's management taking charge. Both airlines have a solid foothold overseas, especially in Asia,