The market HATES this DAL deal

[~~~^~~~]

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=v1&s=dal+nwa+aa+uaua+lcc+cal+aai

Candidly, I am surprised.

Reasons cited:

• No cuts in flights
• No reductions in staff
• No hub reductions
• "Rich Delta Pilot Pay" (doesn't exceed inflation rate in reality)
• NWA pilots & rampers against the deal

Seems like the market just is not happy unless there is blood on the floor. But the truth is, after bankruptcy there is not much bloodletting to be had. Both companies are lean.

The credit markets are similarly unimpressed. One actually lowered the combined airline to B, despite all the cash and improving cash position.

 

[Occam's Razor]

Who cares?

Blue Horseshoe LOVES Endicott Steel.

 

[Geronimo4497]

There is no deal, as of yet. Just intent.

 

[The_Russian]

Because businessmen have no idea how airplanes or airports work.

This is why we are where we are.

 

[~~~^~~~]

Top Ten List;


1. An Atlanta-Shreveport flight suddenly shows up on Northwest's summer schedule.
2. The press release announcing Northwest's April 23 first-quarter earnings call is redistributed, with Atlanta replacing Eagan, Minn., in the dateline.
3. The Aircraft Mechanics Fraternal Association issues a press release declaring itself "the most competent mechanics' union on the property."
4. Delta CEO Richard Anderson tells a close friend that while Atlanta is his winter home, he sees value in spending summers in the Twin Cities.
5. The carriers issue a press release proclaiming they were neutral during the 1991 World Series.
6. "Midnight Train to Georgia" is heard playing in the Northwest employee cafeteria.
7. A fleet of UPS(UPS - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) trucks shows up at Northwest's Memphis hub and begins carting everything and everybody off to Atlanta.
8. The carriers withdraw their application for Transportation Department approval of the six-way antitrust immunity for SkyTeam, saying approval is no longer need because now just one U.S. carrier is involved.
9. Northwest demands immediate construction of a sixth runway at Minneapolis-St. Paul, saying it cannot operate with fewer. 10. And the best way to tell that Northwest is merging with Delta: The directors at the closed-door board meeting send out for Cokes.

 

[~~~^~~~]

Sexy Merger Table Talk:

http://www.thestreet.com/video/10412079/they-just-dont-get-sexy-mergers.html#10412079

 

[maxblast72]

Reasons cited:

• No cuts in flights
• No reductions in staff
• No hub reductions
• "Rich Delta Pilot Pay" (doesn't exceed inflation rate in reality)
• NWA pilots & rampers against the deal

Seems like the market just is not happy unless there is blood on the floor. But the truth is, after bankruptcy there is not much bloodletting to be had. Both companies are lean.

A hub in ATL, CVG, DTW, MEM, and MSP is just too many domestic hubs eastern half of the United States to compete with the LCC's. I think most analysts were hoping for the traditional merger where unprofitable hubs and flights get chopped.

I have to imagine the international routes are minting money while a good portion of the domestic routes are money losers. I would also bet the analysts were hoping for a higher percentage of ASMs to be in the international markets going forward (ie some closing of the domestic hubs that have little international emphasis). Anderson has not stated this is going to happen yet.

 

[IronCityBlue]

Its incredibly shortsighted to bet the entire farm, long term, on only international. There is nothing magical about flying across a border other than the VERY temporary lack of competition right now. Tht will change, and sooner than most realize. Airlines must be able to compete in all markets to be viable long term.

 

[KCPilot]

Who cares?

Blue Horseshoe LOVES Endicott Steel.

LOL, but it does seem that way!

 

[Bavarian Chef]

A hub in ATL, CVG, DTW, MEM, and MSP is just too many domestic hubs eastern half of the United States to compete with the LCC's. I think most analysts were hoping for the traditional merger where unprofitable hubs and flights get chopped.

I have to imagine the international routes are minting money while a good portion of the domestic routes are money losers. I would also bet the analysts were hoping for a higher percentage of ASMs to be in the international markets going forward (ie some closing of the domestic hubs that have little international emphasis). Anderson has not stated this is going to happen yet.

Because they have to say that no hubs will close, nor furloughs initiated in order to hoodwink the DOJ / Congress / public opinion.

Then once it approves, the other shoe comes and kicks you right in the a$$.

 

[tomgoodman]

Synergies must wait

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=v1&s=dal+nwa+aa+uaua+lcc+cal+aai

Candidly, I am surprised.

Reasons cited:

• No cuts in flights
• No reductions in staff
• No hub reductions
• "Rich Delta Pilot Pay" (doesn't exceed inflation rate in reality)
• NWA pilots & rampers against the deal

Regulators and politicians have to be mollified first, by promising full service everywhere. Once the deal is approved, a convenient economic excuse will allow hub and staff reductions, soothing investors and markets.

 

[BrazPilot]

Blue Horseshoe LOVES Endicott Steel.

Good one! :laugh:

 

[Guitar Guy]

Regulators and politicians have to be mollified first, by promising full service everywhere. Once the deal is approved, a convenient economic excuse will allow hub and staff reductions, soothing investors and markets.

No, they couldn't possibly do that. Why, that would be dishonest.

Oh wait, we are talking about business executives...

Unfortunately, I do believe that you are spot-on, Tom.

 

[General Lee]

A hub in ATL, CVG, DTW, MEM, and MSP is just too many domestic hubs eastern half of the United States to compete with the LCC's. I think most analysts were hoping for the traditional merger where unprofitable hubs and flights get chopped.

I have to imagine the international routes are minting money while a good portion of the domestic routes are money losers. I would also bet the analysts were hoping for a higher percentage of ASMs to be in the international markets going forward (ie some closing of the domestic hubs that have little international emphasis). Anderson has not stated this is going to happen yet.

To appease the local governments, Anderson made some promises not to CLOSE bases. He never said he wouldn't downsize them. I see CVG and MEM getting a lot fewer flights coming up here. There will still be a presence, but not domination.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[pilotyip]

One of our pilots saw this coming and turned down a job at NWA, now sees USA Jet as a career location now. Making near 100K at USA Jet early 40's. He said it would 17 years before his income equaled by going to NWA. That considers NWA F/O pay difference versus what time it would take to make Captain at NWA.

 

[IronCityBlue]

To appease the local governments, Anderson made some promises not to CLOSE bases. He never said he wouldn't downsize them. I see CVG and MEM getting a lot fewer flights coming up here. There will still be a presence, but not domination.


Bye Bye--General Lee

Of course. USAir didn't really "close" PIT. They are still the largest carrier there by a large margin. But they did drastically downsize it. And as far as "hub" is concerned, I don't think regulators will care about pilot or FA domicile. And the only "hubs" even being considered by most to be "closed" would be MEM and CVG. The new Delta (or is it the new new Delta?) will be the largest carrier out of MEM and CVG for a very long time in either case.

 

[WSurf]

To appease the local governments, Anderson made some promises not to CLOSE bases. He never said he wouldn't downsize them. I see CVG and MEM getting a lot fewer flights coming up here. There will still be a presence, but not domination.


Bye Bye--General Lee

GL, And with this merger I can see the government allowing other airlines to bid on some of the international routes the Delta and NWA currently run.

Hell, this might be good for US Airways. Maybe those Airbus 350's might come in good use in the future.

 

[NuGuy]

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=v1&s=dal+nwa+aa+uaua+lcc+cal+aai

Candidly, I am surprised.

Reasons cited:

• No cuts in flights
• No reductions in staff
• No hub reductions
• "Rich Delta Pilot Pay" (doesn't exceed inflation rate in reality)
• NWA pilots & rampers against the deal

Heyas Fins,

You are on the mark.

They see yet another AWA/AAA deal coming on, with years of discontent on both sides. Makes for slow going and high fuel burns.

Both share prices tanked at the bell...DALs was down 12%.

They could have done better by getting both groups on board and just annoucing that MEM and CVG are going to be pulled, which we all know is going to happen anyway.

So, instead of doing it the easy way, it's going to be the hard way, just like every other time. What's the definition of "insanity"?

Nu

 

[Max Powers]

Because they have to say that no hubs will close, nor furloughs initiated in order to hoodwink the DOJ / Congress / public opinion.

Then once it approves, the other shoe comes and kicks you right in the a$$.

BINGO WE HAVE A WINNER!!!!!!!!!

The cuts will be HUGE!!!!

 

[woody]

One of our pilots saw this coming and turned down a job at NWA, now sees USA Jet as a career location now. Making near 100K at USA Jet early 40's. He said it would 17 years before his income equaled by going to NWA. That considers NWA F/O pay difference versus what time it would take to make Captain at NWA.

I cant imagine anyone living life on that pager for a career! Nothing personal but if this guy has options like NWA to go to then he obviously has enough going for him to carve out a better existance elsewhere!

 

[lowecur]

There is no appeasement of the NWA unions. They have proven in the past, that they need to have their feet stuck in the fire before they will agree to anything (BK).

By the time this thing is approved by the DOJ (which may go into the next administration), the economy and both airlines will be spiralling towards the junk heap.

Mr. Anderson and his human resource advisor Lawyer (Mike Campbell) will offer them one last chance to get on board before jettisoning and furloughing as many malcontents from NWA as they can. Consolidation of capacity will be the term used, but NWA's will be taken apart like a cheap rummage sale, with only the domestic parts remaining that DL feels they can make a buck on. Oh, well!

imp:​

 

[General Lee]

GL, And with this merger I can see the government allowing other airlines to bid on some of the international routes the Delta and NWA currently run.

Hell, this might be good for US Airways. Maybe those Airbus 350's might come in good use in the future.

Doubtful that the Gov't would allow any airline to bid on slots or rights to Asia---they are "rights" given a certain airline. (if absorbed, it goes to the new owner) United and CAL would have to do the same thing. And, with openskies to Europe, any airline over here can bid for slots or flights to anywhere in Europe, as long as they can get the slots or gates. Also, Delta currently only has one flight a day to NRT, from a place (ATL) that NWA does not fly to from NRT. All of our current Asia flights start from ATL.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Redmeat]

One of our pilots saw this coming and turned down a job at NWA, now sees USA Jet as a career location now. Making near 100K at USA Jet early 40's.

With that lifestyle he better enjoy that 100K...he'll probably be dead (or look like he is) by 50.

No possible way, I would give up flying before that.

Plus with oil prices and a changing economy I find it hard to believe that a small operation like USA jet will be immune to all of this.

 

[WSurf]

Doubtful that the Gov't would allow any airline to bid on slots or rights to Asia---they are "rights" given a certain airline. (if absorbed, it goes to the new owner) United and CAL would have to do the same thing. And, with openskies to Europe, any airline over here can bid for slots or flights to anywhere in Europe, as long as they can get the slots or gates. Also, Delta currently only has one flight a day to NRT, from a place (ATL) that NWA does not fly to from NRT. All of our current Asia flights start from ATL.


Bye Bye--General Lee

Yes, however to keep the new Delta from monoplizing the International flying I see the government cutting some of that up and giving it to come competitors.

Just my thought.

 

[Dizel8]

One of our pilots saw this coming and turned down a job at NWA, now sees USA Jet as a career location now. Making near 100K at USA Jet early 40's.

Hey man, you know I like you, did the whole on demand in Lears and DC-8's, but living on a pager, flogging around a 9 gets old.

Different courses for different horse and all., I would be the first to look for a job with you and I would work my butt off, however, I would be looking for a way out ASAP.

 

[Colonel Savage]

...this might be good for US Airways.

First I've seen "good" and USAirways in the same sentence in a long time.

 

[GogglesPisano]

This is a good clip. Bethune and Ron Allen on CNBC this morning. Not the usual mindless "analysts" you see on CNN and FOX.

Right around the 50% point they spend some time talking about the Delta of the late 90's.

Bethune also talks about his initial push for a DL-UAL deal.

The CNBC types are also dubious of the "no layoff," "no job losses," talk.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=712826540&play=1

 

[UALX727]

Goggles,

Great link, everyone should watch that.

 

[Truckdriver]

There is no appeasement of the NWA unions. They have proven in the past, that they need to have their feet stuck in the fire before they will agree to anything (BK).

By the time this thing is approved by the DOJ (which may go into the next administration), the economy and both airlines will be spiralling towards the junk heap.

Mr. Anderson and his human resource advisor Lawyer (Mike Campbell) will offer them one last chance to get on board before jettisoning and furloughing as many malcontents from NWA as they can. Consolidation of capacity will be the term used, but NWA's will be taken apart like a cheap rummage sale, with only the domestic parts remaining that DL feels they can make a buck on. Oh, well!

imp:​

I think you are heading down the right road here. In about 18 months when both airlines are losing money and still fighting over integration issues, what will stop Delta from parking the 9's and selling the 319/320 fleet?

 

[zonker]

All 7 hubs will remain open. :laugh:

Yea sure.

I like how they trot out noted airline EXPERT Ron :laugh: Allen.

Hey, why don't we bring in "successful businessman" Jeff Skilling for a quip?