CAL Future?

[waterskier]

With all the classes being canceled and the hireing slowing, does anyone have any projections on what is going on at CAL?

Just now getting in a position where I am competitive for CAL, and trying to decide if it is a good time to leave my RJ job.... or did I already miss the boat?

 

[ATRCA]

Hhhmmmm.........

The boat comes and goes these days. CAL historically does not hire during the summer months. This summer will be no different however I suspect the double whammy of high fuel costs and age 65 will cause greater slowing than what was previously predicted.

That being said CAL has 112 aircraft SCHEDULED for delivery in the next few years with another 102 options. 8 additional 777's were just ordered so there is some growth planned at the moment.

It's a dice roll my friend. I left my regional where I was number 500 of 3000. Had good pay, good schedule and QOL. It continues to be a risky thing but you have to decide what you're looking for out of your career. I always wanted to fly Int'l long haul. I also felt it was VERY important to get a number on the list should mergers etc. happen.

Its a tough call, I don't regret my decision one bit. Good luck. PM if you need further.

 

[Superpilot92]

Hhhmmmm.........

The boat comes and goes these days. CAL historically does not hire during the summer months. This summer will be no different however I suspect the double whammy of high fuel costs and age 65 will cause greater slowing than what was previously predicted.

That being said CAL has 112 aircraft SCHEDULED for delivery in the next few years with another 102 options. 8 additional 777's were just ordered so there is some growth planned at the moment.

It's a dice roll my friend. I left my regional where I was number 500 of 3000. Had good pay, good schedule and QOL. It continues to be a risky thing but you have to decide what you're looking for out of your career. I always wanted to fly Int'l long haul. I also felt it was VERY important to get a number on the list should mergers etc. happen.

Its a tough call, I don't regret my decision one bit. Good luck. PM if you need further.

I agree completely.

 

[whatitdoing?]

Like the above posts said, it's a gamble. I left ASA around 300 something and I don't regret it at all. Am I nervous with all this crap going on? Sure, but what can I do about it. There's no golden egg. I'd consider CAL because of all the a/c orders coming. We have an awful contract right now, but it's amendable in DEC with a "stronger" unified pilot group than in the past. Things are going to really change. I had an instructor in the back the other day and he said that all the options will be taken and that the EFB's are coming on the 757's. Most will say bs, but we just go a memo out that said the first 757 got the EFB with the rest to follow. CAL's future looks really bright, so take a hard look. Also, about the hiring, summer slowdown then it should pick back up. To what extent, who knows.......

 

[SMOE]

With all the classes being canceled and the hireing slowing, does anyone have any projections on what is going on at CAL?

Just now getting in a position where I am competitive for CAL, and trying to decide if it is a good time to leave my RJ job.... or did I already miss the boat?

Um, your source?

A new class started last week and as of Friday, all is quiet in the trng dept. Two classes in Apr and two or possibly three in May. No classes in the summer is the norm and then ramps up again in Sep.

Without sounding like I've swallowed too much Koolaide, CAL hasn't bit on the DAL/UAL shrink to profitability myth. Having the youngest, most economical fleet, if they furlough or park jets, I seriously doubt it will be before the end of the summer travel season.

Just my $0.02

 

[canadflyau]

With all the classes being canceled

False

 

[NEDude]

Um, your source?

False

I think he meant with all of the classes being cancelled and hiring slowing at other airlines, does anyone have any projections on what is going on at CAL?

At least that is how I read the question.

 

[Andy]

Continental's a great company, but their future plans are subject to change, as with all airlines.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/5621590.html

March 14, 2008, 10:50PM
Continental warns of 'tough decisions'
As fares rise again, CEO says other steps may be required

By BILL HENSEL JR.
Copyright 2008 Houston Chronicle

Continental Airlines CEO Larry Kellner strongly hinted Friday that some big changes in the way the airline is operating may have to be made soon if high oil prices persist.
Airlines for months have been raising fares to try to offset the high prices. Another increase of as much as $50 on round-trip tickets was put in place by United Airlines and matched Friday by Continental.
But more may have to be done, the chairman and chief executive of Houston-based Continental said Friday.
Kellner told employees in a taped message that at today's fuel prices, the carrier will pay about $1.5 billion more for fuel in 2008 than it did last year.
"We can absorb these extraordinary high fuel prices for a little while," maybe a few months, Kellner said. "But if these prices continue, we will have to make some tough decisions to make sure the size of our network is right for a world with fuel at such astronomical rates."
At least one other airline signaled Friday that changes may be on the way because of high oil prices. At Atlanta-based Delta Airlines, Chief Executive Richard Anderson told employees it will be rolling out a comprehensive plan next week.
That carrier already has made some cuts domestically, he noted.
"Do everything you can to preserve fuel," Anderson told the Delta workers in his own taped message.
Kellner told employees the carrier would not ask for more cuts and concessions, as it did a few years ago.
However, "we'll all have to work together to increase revenues and decrease costs," if oil remains high.
Whatever steps may be taken, Continental pilots, who rallied this week in New York City to draw attention to their contract negotiations with management, will make sure their interests are protected, spokesman Mark Adams said Friday.
"This was the theme of our rally," Adams said. "Fuel costs what fuel costs and pilots cost what pilots cost and sometime you have to raise the fare for both."
Friday's fare increase by United and matched by Continental had not been matched by other big carriers, but Rick Seaney of FareCompare.com said he didn't find that surprising.
"Airlines along with consumers are probably absorbing the impact of this jolt and it may take them a few days to decide on proper levels of matching," Seaney said in a report. "Most likely they will match."
The $50 hike was only for the longest flights, with the increases for shorter trips starting at $4 a round-trip, he said.
To stay in place, fare increases need all major airlines to participate. If only one chooses not to raise prices, the attempt usually collapses.
Airlines have raised fares at least six times in the past three months as oil and fuel prices have continued to rise. The price for a barrel of West Texas crude closed at more than $110 a barrel Friday.

 

[whatitdoing?]

Andy, you're absolutely correct, but CAL seems for now to be in a great position. Who knows next month though, right?

As far as classes go, nothing has been cancelled with no plans to cancel. The summer slowdown is normal.

As far as the "tough decisions" in the future, it seems to be timed after our Wall Street march and our Section 6 negotiations that are upcoming. I'm not worried......

 

[canadflyau]

"We can absorb these extraordinary high fuel prices for a little while,"

This is the standard rhetoric to try and evoke Gov subsidation, and to prepare labor to get ready to "survive."

LABOR is not asking the airlines to absorb the rising fuel costs... have the oil companies absorbed the costs of the rising cost of oil? OUR AIRLINE MANAGERS have conditioned the traveling public that they should pay $49 to fly across the country and not see ticket prices increase... it is a right to fly below cost.

CAL has raised r/t tickets by $50... finally. But even the legacy carriers are hedged enough to not be paying the going rate at the pump. I think CAL is hedged 20%, and gas is about 2.40/gal even 1 year out.. plenty of time to make adjustments as necessary to compensate for the rising cost of FUEL.

Remember, it takes approx 13.5 gals of gas to move each seat on the jet 1000 miles. That math DOES NOT CHANGE.

The problem is two-fold and has nothing to do with labor. This is just business as usual.


But as for pilot hiring, there have been no changes. Because CAL aggressively sought to have the most fuel efficient fleet to be positioned for the rising cost of fuel. Plenty of a/c orders to continue expanding while others may be forced to park less efficient a/c. CAL pilot biggest threat may be from the unrestricted 70 seat turboprops.

 

[bizicmo]

I would rather have the unrestricted 70 seat turboprops then any other airline's scope.

 

[Superpilot92]

I would rather have the unrestricted 70 seat turboprops then any other airline's scope.

How is that? The q400 does everything a 70 seat jet does for the most part. how is q400 any better as far as scope is concerned than a 70 seat jet? hopefully there is or will be a CAP on the total number of those things.

 

[BSkin]

How is that? The q400 does everything a 70 seat jet does for the most part. how is q400 any better as far as scope is concerned than a 70 seat jet? hopefully there is or will be a CAP on the total number of those things.

Don't know about the scope aspect, however I'd bet the cost advantage to Continental is huge with those Colgan Q400s. I don't have a clue what's going to happen if oil stays where it is or, god forbid, keeps rising, but all I know is domestically we may see more and more of those things!

 

[canadflyau]

CAL's 8-K 3/12/08

For the full year 2008, Continental currently expects to grow its mainline capacity (ASMs) by approximately 2% - 3% year-over-year (yoy) with mainline domestic capacity expected to be down slightly yoy.

While I just fly da plane, I was very surprised by this note. I would have thought that rising fuel prices are usually com-batted by larger equipment with less frequency. Thus an ASM increase domestically for mainline.

I wonder what they are alluding to doing with the domestic system.. more RJ's or more Dash-8's while less 737 flying domestically. It is the latter (Dash-8's I am most concerned about.)

I spend a lot of time DCO, and I read Larry's article about the new turboprop in town. In the article he really tries to dumb-down what has really happened. He simply puts that the Dash's are flying in the same arena, 500 miles as many of the RJ's, and will be taking over many of those routes as it does it in the same speed, with greater comfort, for less gas. (That is Larry's words not mine.)

So I notice that he forgets that mainline used to fly these routes, then turned to RJ. So I would submit that we are now seeing 70 seat planes flown by non-union pilots on our routes. I have seen the Dash's in CLT, CMH, PIT, DCA, just to name a few. I think we all thought that eventually many of these routes would come back to our larger equipment. I think we may be seeing the equipment of choice, and it is not a 737.

CAL may be opting for frequency, 2 Dash-400 for every 737 parked. IMHO

 

[Furloughed80]

How is that? The q400 does everything a 70 seat jet does for the most part. how is q400 any better as far as scope is concerned than a 70 seat jet? hopefully there is or will be a CAP on the total number of those things.

The Q-400 is a capable aircraft, but it does not have the range and speed of an E-175. The E-175 can basically do everything a classic 737 can with 78-88 seats. The Q-400 is relegated to short hops out of hub airports. This fact will seriously limit its growth within a fleet. There is a huge difference between giving up scope to 70 seats on a turboprop vs. on a jet.

 

[Superpilot92]

The Q-400 is a capable aircraft, but it does not have the range and speed of an E-175. The E-175 can basically do everything a classic 737 can with 78-88 seats. The Q-400 is relegated to short hops out of hub airports. This fact will seriously limit its growth within a fleet. There is a huge difference between giving up scope to 70 seats on a turboprop vs. on a jet.

CAL doesnt use the ERJs and 737's only on long routes though. So where as you are right it doesnt have the range a 175 does but it doesnt need to for the route structure at cal. I am just saying hopefully they cap those things.

 

[zonker]

Fleet plan calls for 15 Q400's.

All subject to change of course.

 

[Thebadcat1313]

15 firm orders with options for some 40ish more....

 

[RJAA]

Block time increase within 500NM on Q400 is negligible, it almost climbs and cruises like jet, and it has much lower operating cost per seat. I fully expect Continental to order some more, cutting down the number of RJs in EWR and also in why not in IAH as well. However, considering the current fuel economics, what's concerning is the number of accelerated B735s retirement and the chances of their short routes being replaced by the Q400s.

 

[EWR_FO]

Continental's a great company, but their future plans are subject to change, as with all airlines.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/5621590.html

March 14, 2008, 10:50PM
Continental warns of 'tough decisions'
As fares rise again, CEO says other steps may be required

By BILL HENSEL JR.
Copyright 2008 Houston Chronicle

Continental Airlines CEO Larry Kellner strongly hinted Friday that some big changes in the way the airline is operating may have to be made soon if high oil prices persist.
Airlines for months have been raising fares to try to offset the high prices. Another increase of as much as $50 on round-trip tickets was put in place by United Airlines and matched Friday by Continental.
But more may have to be done, the chairman and chief executive of Houston-based Continental said Friday.
Kellner told employees in a taped message that at today's fuel prices, the carrier will pay about $1.5 billion more for fuel in 2008 than it did last year.
"We can absorb these extraordinary high fuel prices for a little while," maybe a few months, Kellner said. "But if these prices continue, we will have to make some tough decisions to make sure the size of our network is right for a world with fuel at such astronomical rates."
At least one other airline signaled Friday that changes may be on the way because of high oil prices. At Atlanta-based Delta Airlines, Chief Executive Richard Anderson told employees it will be rolling out a comprehensive plan next week.
That carrier already has made some cuts domestically, he noted.
"Do everything you can to preserve fuel," Anderson told the Delta workers in his own taped message.
Kellner told employees the carrier would not ask for more cuts and concessions, as it did a few years ago.
However, "we'll all have to work together to increase revenues and decrease costs," if oil remains high.
Whatever steps may be taken, Continental pilots, who rallied this week in New York City to draw attention to their contract negotiations with management, will make sure their interests are protected, spokesman Mark Adams said Friday.
"This was the theme of our rally," Adams said. "Fuel costs what fuel costs and pilots cost what pilots cost and sometime you have to raise the fare for both."
Friday's fare increase by United and matched by Continental had not been matched by other big carriers, but Rick Seaney of FareCompare.com said he didn't find that surprising.
"Airlines along with consumers are probably absorbing the impact of this jolt and it may take them a few days to decide on proper levels of matching," Seaney said in a report. "Most likely they will match."
The $50 hike was only for the longest flights, with the increases for shorter trips starting at $4 a round-trip, he said.
To stay in place, fare increases need all major airlines to participate. If only one chooses not to raise prices, the attempt usually collapses.
Airlines have raised fares at least six times in the past three months as oil and fuel prices have continued to rise. The price for a barrel of West Texas crude closed at more than $110 a barrel Friday.

I'm sure it's purely coincidence that Kellner decided to sit down with the Houston Chronicle the day after the Wall Street Rally. Their industrial psychology game plan has not changed.

 

[flygirlqt]

Their industrial psychology game plan has not changed.

I hope he has figured out that ours has!

 

[waterskier]

Yes I was talking about the situation at other majors... and trying to figure out what was going on at CAL. Thanks for the input guys.

 

[Mr Hat]

Why is it when people bring up 70 seat jets the major airline being talked about needs to give up scope? Is there a rule that all Embraer equipment is banned from flying at the majors?
I hope that if this does come up at CAL in the future, those airplanes are put on the CAL list and flown by CAL pilots only.
I still believe that all jets should have been put at the major level regardless of how many seats they have.

 

[pkober]

I hope that if this does come up at CAL in the future, those airplanes are put on the CAL list and flown by CAL pilots only.

Right on. All flying with CAL colors done by CAL pilots. It's simple. I don't care if its a turboprop or a jet. Any airplane flying CAL routes without a CAL pilot at the controls is bad news.

Never give up scope. We need to tighten ours even further so that all CAL flying will eventually be done by CAL pilots only.

 

[Blucher]

Waterskier,

Surely you're smart enough to know that none of us on FI have an accurate crystal ball. Just hope for the best and get your number at CAL as soon as you can. Yes, hiring ALWAYS stops during the summer at CAL and everyone gets more flying than they would like (instructors must come out of the school house to cover some line flying). If you can get in for one of the last few classes before the hiring stops, great, but you'll be reserve all summer (not in IAH: wife and son will not be happy with you). If you can get in one of the first few classes in the fall, all the better, in that you will most likely hold a line very quickly (in EWR or reserve in IAH) and you'll be amazed how quickly the numbers below you start adding up. Good luck, we look forward to having you here.

-Blucher

 

[COpilot]

On the bright side "Not", we have 14 over 60 guys from the training dept. returning to the line to fly pax. So 14 less CA slots to move up into.

I guess ALPA lawyers are saying they are just like the FedEx F/E's.

 

[PCL_128]

On the bright side "Not", we have 14 over 60 guys from the training dept. returning to the line to fly pax. So 14 less CA slots to move up into.

I guess ALPA lawyers are saying they are just like the FedEx F/E's.

I highly doubt the accuracy of this. That would be a blatant violation of the law.

 

[EWR_FO]

I highly doubt the accuracy of this. That would be a blatant violation of the law.

It is 100% accurate, it is based on an interpretation from the FAA. They have classified the over sixty training pilots as "required crewmembers" apparently because they have been giving checkrides. The EWR CP has given exactly ONE checkride since he turned sixty, to the Director of Flight Operations, and he just flew a revenue flight.

 

[Flopgut]

It is unfortunately true. Another win for Prater. One step closer to all those under age 65 coming back with seniority.

 

[COpilot]

I highly doubt the accuracy of this. That would be a blatant violation of the law.

Your right, I'm just "bull$hiting" you because I want to start something. "Duh"!

Look, they are reporting that these over 60 CA's did not take lump sum retirement in hopes that someday the law would change. Our company, and union allowed them to keep their seniority numbers. So go ahead and keep your head buried in the sand, and go about your happy little life.

If this is turns out not to be true as reported on our bulletin board, I'll be glad to recant. Other wise if you have knowledge of what is happening on our list please keep us updated.