Midwest/TPG/NWA deal is up in the air

[flying zephyr]

sum of parts greater than the whole

I think that the deal would be for 455 mil. Buying part of an airline like lufthansa is doing is a lot different than the whole thing. Landing slots at DCA, LGA, gates at airports, trained "professionals", pilot training, cheap leases on the a/c, the "brand" fwiw, they all add up to something, and let's not forget 50 odd mil is going to golden parachutes with vesting, payouts and all the other crap that goes along with them. I agree, they could've gotten MW on the cheap if IF IF negotiations were going on now, but then again I could've sold my house for a lot more two years ago than what it's worth now... When you make the deal has a lot to do with it and TPG would have a lot of egg on thier face to back out, just because times are different. Do you think that thier people would be happy to walk away throwing 15 mil or whatever thier fee is down the crapper if they know that NWA is going to buy them off anyway. Remember the JD is already looking at this as if it is a merger and if you look at NWAs latest inflight magazine it already has all of our MCI and MKE routes on thier route map. What's next, I am sure of one thing, we will only find out after it has already happened. Good luck to all and I hope and pray the industry can recover for everyone's sake. More importantly I hope we all have jobs until we want to end our careers on our terms. I didn't want age 65, but it's here and I hope that it doesn't negatively impact everyone tooooooo much. God bless and happy new year to all

 

[RIDETHELIGHTING]

Heres my thoughts.. If the TPG/NWA deal doesn't go through, then MEH stock is going to plummet to around $4 or $5 a share. If that happens I can almost guarantee AAI will come back with an offer of about $8-$10 a share. Now that shareholders have seen that MEH's stand alone plan is not going to work, I would bet that inverstors would gladly sell to AAI for much less than originaly offered. Currently, with $100 a barel oil, the airline industry is a whole different animal than it was 6 months ago, when profits were skyrocketing. This could be a great deal for AAI.. But then again, what the he11 do I know. It isn't too far fetched though..[/quote/]

I heard that AT would offer about 150-200 mil less

 

[CitationLover]

Heres my thoughts.. If the TPG/NWA deal doesn't go through, then MEH stock is going to plummet to around $4 or $5 a share. If that happens I can almost guarantee AAI will come back with an offer of about $8-$10 a share. Now that shareholders have seen that MEH's stand alone plan is not going to work, I would bet that inverstors would gladly sell to AAI for much less than originaly offered. Currently, with $100 a barel oil, the airline industry is a whole different animal than it was 6 months ago, when profits were skyrocketing. This could be a great deal for AAI.. But then again, what the he11 do I know. It isn't too far fetched though..

let's be honest here at least. the stand alone plan has yet to be fully implemented. our 717 cabins have yet to be reconfigured and won't be until this summer. you're assuming a stand alone plan will fail. the shareholders spoke and voted overwhelmingly to approve the TPG deal.

air tran, loaded with debt, needs to keep growing to maintain that debt. if anything, that debt is at least their shield from an undue takeover. but i doubt this deal will be rejected by the doj so i do not think there will be a chance for a counteroffer. if delta's leadership truly wants to merge with NWA then the full weight of delta's political pull will be on the doj to approve this tiny airline buyout with tpg. i think the reason this is taking a long time is the government is viewing this as a NWA buyout.

 

[CitationLover]

I heard that AT would offer about 150-200 mil less

think about what you are saying. a company with 38 airplanes you are going to pay $250 million dollars for. your company with 130 airplanes is only worth $600 million today. does that make sense?

 

[russtgol]

think about what you are saying. a company with 38 airplanes you are going to pay $250 million dollars for. your company with 130 airplanes is only worth $600 million today. does that make sense?

600 Million is a good deal for Value Jet.. The name of the airline says it all!

 

[GOULET!]

This deal will get approved and life will go on. Just your typical government red tape/dragging their feet scenario. Just about every Midwest pilot feels that they will be working for Northwest in about 5 years though. Would be alot better than being a AirTran pilot in 5 years in my opinion.

 

[CitationLover]

....Remember the JD is already looking at this as if it is a merger and if you look at NWAs latest inflight magazine it already has all of our MCI and MKE routes on thier route map.....

Try not to get too "black helicopter"-ish yet. The routes are on there because of the new code share we have with them.

For example AA has all of the cities in Europe, Africa, and Asia in their route map but they are cities where the one world partners fly to and as such are labeled that way. Are the routes in NWA inflight magazine labeled differently (colors, cities are dots not squares, etc.)?

 

[gt1900]

Citation... I hate to tell you this but what MEH is doing isn't going to help their profits. If the buyout goes through, you guys should be ok. But if it doesn't, you are in big trouble unless AAI steps in. Those RJ's that Tim is expanding with are going to drain MEH with oil at $100 a barrel. Expanding with RJ's is no way to make money. Just ask AAI, they couldn't make it work at oil prices that were over halt as much as they are now. MEH isn't expanding on the main line side, and thats where it needs to be done. The only way MEH will make it on its own is with a new A/C order, get rid of the pay for departure from Skywest (I believe its pay for departure), oil to drop below about $70 a barrel, and have AAI back off the MKE routes they are going to start going head to head on. I don't care if you like it or not, MEH is a sinking ship at $100 a barrel without help from someone. Just adding seats to the 717's aint going to cut it. Everything Tim told the employees and investors was so completely b.s. its not even funny. He hasn't even come close to the profits he was promising when he was trying to keep MEH from a takeover. I hope for your sake the deal goes through, that way your guys won't get furloughed like has been rumored..

 

[CitationLover]

Citation... I hate to tell you this but what MEH is doing isn't going to help their profits. If the buyout goes through, you guys should be ok. But if it doesn't, you are in big trouble unless AAI steps in. Those RJ's that Tim is expanding with are going to drain MEH with oil at $100 a barrel. Expanding with RJ's is no way to make money. Just ask AAI, they couldn't make it work at oil prices that were over halt as much as they are now. MEH isn't expanding on the main line side, and thats where it needs to be done. The only way MEH will make it on its own is with a new A/C order, get rid of the pay for departure from Skywest (I believe its pay for departure), oil to drop below about $70 a barrel, and have AAI back off the MKE routes they are going to start going head to head on. I don't care if you like it or not, MEH is a sinking ship at $100 a barrel without help from someone. Just adding seats to the 717's aint going to cut it. Everything Tim told the employees and investors was so completely b.s. its not even funny. He hasn't even come close to the profits he was promising when he was trying to keep MEH from a takeover. I hope for your sake the deal goes through, that way your guys won't get furloughed like has been rumored..

I, as almost every pilot here, agree with you and do not like seeing the CRJ's (let alone another company other than our wholly owned as Skyway represents the largest group from which our pilot group came from) in MKE and MCI. We were 90% hedged in fuel for 2007 and I think we are fully hedged again in 2008 so we are somewhat limiting our fuel exposure. What worries me more is the nonstop fare sales we seem to have via our website.....No wonder our yields have gone down.....$100 oil affects ALL (air tran included), not just us.

Fwiw, scope was my #1 issue for our online contract survey.

 

[deadstick]

Anybody think the MEH/TPG/NWA deal is a fishing expedition for a NWA/DAL merger? Kinda testing the DOJ waters?

CL, the share holders (incl TH) voted for TPG because they got $.50/share more and all cash. The funds that hold the stock don't care about the employees or the airline -- they get their pay out.

Just my humble opinion.