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Midwest/TPG/NWA deal is up in the air

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FlyAirtran

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Oct 4, 2006
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http://www.startribune.com/business/13191901.html?page=2&c=y

NWA-Midwest deal is up in the air

The Department of Justice is scrutinizing the consumer effects of a Northwest-TPG Capital acquisition of Midwest Airlines. A decision is expected by Jan. 31.
By LIZ FEDOR, Star Tribune
Last update: January 6, 2008

Midwest Airlines executives said last summer that they expected to sell their carrier to Northwest Airlines and a private equity partner by the end of 2007, but the closing hasn't occurred because federal regulators are still examining how the deal would affect passengers.
After outbidding AirTran Airways for the Milwaukee-based carrier, Texas-based TPG Capital and Northwest are prepared to pay about $450 million for Midwest. While the parties have stressed that Northwest would be a passive investor with a 47 percent stake, the deal is structured so that Northwest would have the right to buy out TPG's interest. While TPG would turn the publicly traded airline into a private company, Northwest would not get a seat on the new board.
The U.S. Department of Justice asked the companies to provide a second round of data, which is allowing the federal government to do a detailed analysis of the markets served by Northwest and Midwest.
The fact that the Justice Department sought voluminous information on pricing and schedules shows interest in the deal's potential "anticompetitive effects," said Tom Sheran, an attorney with Moss & Barnett, Minneapolis. In many acquisitions, there is no requirement to provide a second set of data, he said.
"DOJ has apparently chosen to review the transaction as if it were a merger," said Ben Hirst, Northwest's senior vice president of corporate affairs and administration.
Hirst emphasized that Northwest has "made no decision as to whether or when to exercise our option" to buy TPG's majority stake.
Sheran, who recently chaired the antitrust section for the Minnesota State Bar Association, said the Justice Department is responsible for looking at "the reduction of competition when [market] concentrations increase."
In Milwaukee, Midwest had a 51 percent share of the market in 2006, while Northwest had the second-largest position with about 18 percent.
Aviation consultant Patrick Murphy said that Justice would be expected to look at overlapping routes where Northwest and Midwest have been competitors. Northwest is one of the big six network carriers in the United States. Midwest, with hubs in Milwaukee and Kansas City, serves more than 50 cities.
Because the deal gives Northwest the prerogative to acquire all of Midwest, Murphy said that regulators can assess the transaction "under the assumption that it could be a merger." Murphy previously dealt with airline competition issues as a U.S. Department of Transportation official.
In a recent interview, Northwest CEO Doug Steenland said, "We continue to believe that the deal will get approved." Steenland and Carol Skornicka, Midwest senior vice president and general counsel, both anticipate that the Justice Department will make a decision on the Midwest transaction by Jan. 31.
Northwest and TPG decided to submit a joint bid for Midwest after the carrier rebuffed several offers from AirTran, a growing low-fare carrier with a major hub in Atlanta. AirTran raised competition issues in the final days before Midwest's board selected TPG-Northwest as the winning bidder.
AirTran's CEO Bob Fornaro said back in August that Northwest bid for Midwest because Northwest "did not want a strong, low-cost carrier in their back yard."
He added, "If two carriers get together with a combined market share of 70 percent in Milwaukee, their track record says they'll raise prices."
In a white paper released in December, the American Antitrust Institute urged federal regulators to "fully consider" the effects of Northwest's buyout option "on restraining competition and potentially closing the door to entry in markets in which Northwest and Midwest could wield market power."
If Midwest is jointly owned by TPG and Northwest, Midwest's Skornicka said that Northwest and Midwest would remain competitors. It would be illegal for the two airlines to conspire to set prices, she said.
If Northwest bought TPG's share of Midwest, Skornicka said it "would hardly move the needle" on Northwest's market power. She described Midwest as a "very small airline" that has one-half of 1 percent of domestic airline capacity.
"There is plenty of opportunity for competition to come into Milwaukee," she said, noting that some expansions have occurred since the TPG-Northwest deal was announced.
Barry Bateman, airport director at General Mitchell International Airport in Milwaukee, said that AirTran increased its gates from two to four in late 2007 and expanded its daily flights from nine to 12. Last month Skybus Airlines, a low-fare carrier, started offering daily service between Milwaukee and Columbus, Ohio.
For the first 11 months of 2007, AirTran had a 6.1 percent market share in Milwaukee while Northwest's share was 13.2 percent.
During 2007, the Milwaukee airport increased the number of gates by a half dozen -- to 48 gates. Midwest now uses 23 of those gates, while Northwest flies out of six gates.
Northwest and Midwest were planning a code-share agreement before the Midwest board began weighing bids for Midwest. Northwest has code-share arrangements with Delta, Continental and others, which allow the carriers to jointly market certain flights and extend their route networks.
Historically, Northwest has had a major presence in Milwaukee. In 2003, Northwest reported that Milwaukee travelers had generated nearly $100 million in domestic revenue for it during 2002.
Northwest chose to become a passive investor with TPG because "we wanted to secure the code-share arrangement with Midwest, which would have clearly been lost if Midwest had been acquired by AirTran," Hirst said.
Northwest had done business before with TPG, formerly known as Texas Pacific Group, and managing partner David Bonderman.
In January 1998, Northwest struck a deal to buy Texas Pacific Group's shares in Continental Airlines and form a long-term alliance with Continental. The Texas-based airline chose that option over a potential merger with Delta.
The Justice Department gave its blessing to the Northwest-Continental alliance, but challenged the stock transaction. "They sued us and we had a court case, but we went ahead and bought the shares anyway," Steenland recalled. Ultimately, Northwest sold its shares back to Continental.
 
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That would explain why you can buy MEH stock at about $14.20 today even though TPG is offering $17 bucks a share. I guess there is more than a few people out there that think this deal might not go through.
 
perhaps the rumors of our respective MEC's already having an integration in place already in addition to a 10% pay raise on current NWA rates are true......

who knows. when do the air tran 717 leases expire? perhaps those are the NWA DC-9 replacements.......
 
That would explain why you can buy MEH stock at about $14.20 today even though TPG is offering $17 bucks a share. I guess there is more than a few people out there that think this deal might not go through.

an air tran pilot shouldn't be blasting someone else's stock price. how's theirs doing? hint: 52wk low for the last couple of weeks. their market cap was $1 billion during the takeover bid, now it's $600 million.
 
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an air tran pilot shouldn't be blasting someone else's stock price. how's theirs doing? hint: 52wk low for the last couple of weeks. their market cap was $1 billion during the takeover bid, now it's $600 million.

Very true, it should be a very interesting year for smaller airlines.
 
Every airline stock is in the dumper, why would TPG/NWA pay for what is now a severely overpriced stock (even to keep FL out of their backyard)? TPG will most likely loose $$ on the deal in today's environment, and NWA would be stuck paying more than necessary to keep the sandbox all to themselves. But if that's what they consider good business, then let 'em have it.
 
Every airline stock is in the dumper, why would TPG/NWA pay for what is now a severely overpriced stock (even to keep FL out of their backyard)? TPG will most likely loose $$ on the deal in today's environment, and NWA would be stuck paying more than necessary to keep the sandbox all to themselves. But if that's what they consider good business, then let 'em have it.

Who knows. This is why we simply fly the planes.
 
the price being paid for midwest stock is waaaaaaaaaaayyyyy over valued. The price for the stock should be 3-4 bucks a share. I think that the parties will/should renig on this deal because of the rediculus premium being paid for this dog. talk about a waste of dollars. If lufthanza bought 20% of Jetblue for 300 million. How could this group justify close to 700 million for a tiny co. like midwest? which owns very little assets and very few resources? it looks like its mostly set up to get the management and bankers rich. but whats new anyway.
 
an air tran pilot shouldn't be blasting someone else's stock price. how's theirs doing? hint: 52wk low for the last couple of weeks. their market cap was $1 billion during the takeover bid, now it's $600 million.
With the stock this low, AirTran too could be acquired by another carrier. 2008 will see some interesting times for the airline industry. No one is immuned. With oil hitting $100 dollars a barrel, consolidation is probable right around the corner. Just a matter of who kicks it off first. Personally, I don't think it will be legacy picking off legacy. I believe we will see legacies beginning to pickup low cost carriers. JL annouced he will be leaving AirTran's board this May in the AJC. He also states that consolidation will happen, just doesn't know the partners yet.
 
the price being paid for midwest stock is waaaaaaaaaaayyyyy over valued. The price for the stock should be 3-4 bucks a share. I think that the parties will/should renig on this deal because of the rediculus premium being paid for this dog. talk about a waste of dollars. If lufthanza bought 20% of Jetblue for 300 million. How could this group justify close to 700 million for a tiny co. like midwest? which owns very little assets and very few resources? it looks like its mostly set up to get the management and bankers rich. but whats new anyway.

where are you getting $700 million?!?! you're about $250 million off.
 
If they won't let this go through then a NWA/DAL merger is even less likely.
I do think large mergers between legacies will have a hard time with the DOJ, but they can be done. The DOJ usually has guidelines by which the parties involved must meet to get their blessing. All this chatter could be a screen for what is really going on, mergers on a smaller scale. Example: Delta and Alaska, United and Jetblue, Continental and AirTran, Spirit and Frontier. Many scenarios could play out. I think next year this time we all will be shaking our heads one way or the other saying, "damn, where did that come from"!
 
There will be no mergers, too many hurtles. There will continue to be people discussing mergers, however.
The airline industry will go down the same road as the banking industry, the phone industry, oil companies, and soon to be auto industry. In a global economy it is only a matter of time. Over the last seven years the legacy carriers have spent time trying to get their books in order. Now that they are profitable they need to figure out how to stay profitable. Consolidation makes sense for one reason alone, being able to control pricing power. With energy prices as high as they are and the stock of many of the low cost carriers taking a beating, the time could be right for the legacies to step in and grab a good deal. If you folks have a chance, go to the book store and pickup the latest Airways magazine. There is a very good article on the path of low cost carriers vs legacy carriers. If you go on the internet today and look up fares for flights between the established low cost carriers (Southwest, AirTran, Jetblue, Frontier) you will find that their pricing is not to far from the legacies on many routes. The difference between today and years past, the legacies were loosing money and the low cost carriers were making money on competitive routes. This is not the case today. The low cost advantage is no more, which will eventually drive these forseeable mergers.
 
Heres my thoughts.. If the TPG/NWA deal doesn't go through, then MEH stock is going to plummet to around $4 or $5 a share. If that happens I can almost guarantee AAI will come back with an offer of about $8-$10 a share. Now that shareholders have seen that MEH's stand alone plan is not going to work, I would bet that inverstors would gladly sell to AAI for much less than originaly offered. Currently, with $100 a barel oil, the airline industry is a whole different animal than it was 6 months ago, when profits were skyrocketing. This could be a great deal for AAI.. But then again, what the he11 do I know. It isn't too far fetched though..
 
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sum of parts greater than the whole

I think that the deal would be for 455 mil. Buying part of an airline like lufthansa is doing is a lot different than the whole thing. Landing slots at DCA, LGA, gates at airports, trained "professionals", pilot training, cheap leases on the a/c, the "brand" fwiw, they all add up to something, and let's not forget 50 odd mil is going to golden parachutes with vesting, payouts and all the other crap that goes along with them. I agree, they could've gotten MW on the cheap if IF IF negotiations were going on now, but then again I could've sold my house for a lot more two years ago than what it's worth now... When you make the deal has a lot to do with it and TPG would have a lot of egg on thier face to back out, just because times are different. Do you think that thier people would be happy to walk away throwing 15 mil or whatever thier fee is down the crapper if they know that NWA is going to buy them off anyway. Remember the JD is already looking at this as if it is a merger and if you look at NWAs latest inflight magazine it already has all of our MCI and MKE routes on thier route map. What's next, I am sure of one thing, we will only find out after it has already happened. Good luck to all and I hope and pray the industry can recover for everyone's sake. More importantly I hope we all have jobs until we want to end our careers on our terms. I didn't want age 65, but it's here and I hope that it doesn't negatively impact everyone tooooooo much. God bless and happy new year to all
 
Heres my thoughts.. If the TPG/NWA deal doesn't go through, then MEH stock is going to plummet to around $4 or $5 a share. If that happens I can almost guarantee AAI will come back with an offer of about $8-$10 a share. Now that shareholders have seen that MEH's stand alone plan is not going to work, I would bet that inverstors would gladly sell to AAI for much less than originaly offered. Currently, with $100 a barel oil, the airline industry is a whole different animal than it was 6 months ago, when profits were skyrocketing. This could be a great deal for AAI.. But then again, what the he11 do I know. It isn't too far fetched though..[/quote/]

I heard that AT would offer about 150-200 mil less
 
Heres my thoughts.. If the TPG/NWA deal doesn't go through, then MEH stock is going to plummet to around $4 or $5 a share. If that happens I can almost guarantee AAI will come back with an offer of about $8-$10 a share. Now that shareholders have seen that MEH's stand alone plan is not going to work, I would bet that inverstors would gladly sell to AAI for much less than originaly offered. Currently, with $100 a barel oil, the airline industry is a whole different animal than it was 6 months ago, when profits were skyrocketing. This could be a great deal for AAI.. But then again, what the he11 do I know. It isn't too far fetched though..

let's be honest here at least. the stand alone plan has yet to be fully implemented. our 717 cabins have yet to be reconfigured and won't be until this summer. you're assuming a stand alone plan will fail. the shareholders spoke and voted overwhelmingly to approve the TPG deal.

air tran, loaded with debt, needs to keep growing to maintain that debt. if anything, that debt is at least their shield from an undue takeover. but i doubt this deal will be rejected by the doj so i do not think there will be a chance for a counteroffer. if delta's leadership truly wants to merge with NWA then the full weight of delta's political pull will be on the doj to approve this tiny airline buyout with tpg. i think the reason this is taking a long time is the government is viewing this as a NWA buyout.
 
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I heard that AT would offer about 150-200 mil less

think about what you are saying. a company with 38 airplanes you are going to pay $250 million dollars for. your company with 130 airplanes is only worth $600 million today. does that make sense?
 
think about what you are saying. a company with 38 airplanes you are going to pay $250 million dollars for. your company with 130 airplanes is only worth $600 million today. does that make sense?

600 Million is a good deal for Value Jet.. The name of the airline says it all!
 
This deal will get approved and life will go on. Just your typical government red tape/dragging their feet scenario. Just about every Midwest pilot feels that they will be working for Northwest in about 5 years though. Would be alot better than being a AirTran pilot in 5 years in my opinion.
 
....Remember the JD is already looking at this as if it is a merger and if you look at NWAs latest inflight magazine it already has all of our MCI and MKE routes on thier route map.....

Try not to get too "black helicopter"-ish yet. The routes are on there because of the new code share we have with them.

For example AA has all of the cities in Europe, Africa, and Asia in their route map but they are cities where the one world partners fly to and as such are labeled that way. Are the routes in NWA inflight magazine labeled differently (colors, cities are dots not squares, etc.)?
 
Citation... I hate to tell you this but what MEH is doing isn't going to help their profits. If the buyout goes through, you guys should be ok. But if it doesn't, you are in big trouble unless AAI steps in. Those RJ's that Tim is expanding with are going to drain MEH with oil at $100 a barrel. Expanding with RJ's is no way to make money. Just ask AAI, they couldn't make it work at oil prices that were over halt as much as they are now. MEH isn't expanding on the main line side, and thats where it needs to be done. The only way MEH will make it on its own is with a new A/C order, get rid of the pay for departure from Skywest (I believe its pay for departure), oil to drop below about $70 a barrel, and have AAI back off the MKE routes they are going to start going head to head on. I don't care if you like it or not, MEH is a sinking ship at $100 a barrel without help from someone. Just adding seats to the 717's aint going to cut it. Everything Tim told the employees and investors was so completely b.s. its not even funny. He hasn't even come close to the profits he was promising when he was trying to keep MEH from a takeover. I hope for your sake the deal goes through, that way your guys won't get furloughed like has been rumored..
 
Citation... I hate to tell you this but what MEH is doing isn't going to help their profits. If the buyout goes through, you guys should be ok. But if it doesn't, you are in big trouble unless AAI steps in. Those RJ's that Tim is expanding with are going to drain MEH with oil at $100 a barrel. Expanding with RJ's is no way to make money. Just ask AAI, they couldn't make it work at oil prices that were over halt as much as they are now. MEH isn't expanding on the main line side, and thats where it needs to be done. The only way MEH will make it on its own is with a new A/C order, get rid of the pay for departure from Skywest (I believe its pay for departure), oil to drop below about $70 a barrel, and have AAI back off the MKE routes they are going to start going head to head on. I don't care if you like it or not, MEH is a sinking ship at $100 a barrel without help from someone. Just adding seats to the 717's aint going to cut it. Everything Tim told the employees and investors was so completely b.s. its not even funny. He hasn't even come close to the profits he was promising when he was trying to keep MEH from a takeover. I hope for your sake the deal goes through, that way your guys won't get furloughed like has been rumored..

I, as almost every pilot here, agree with you and do not like seeing the CRJ's (let alone another company other than our wholly owned as Skyway represents the largest group from which our pilot group came from) in MKE and MCI. We were 90% hedged in fuel for 2007 and I think we are fully hedged again in 2008 so we are somewhat limiting our fuel exposure. What worries me more is the nonstop fare sales we seem to have via our website.....No wonder our yields have gone down.....$100 oil affects ALL (air tran included), not just us.

Fwiw, scope was my #1 issue for our online contract survey.
 
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Anybody think the MEH/TPG/NWA deal is a fishing expedition for a NWA/DAL merger? Kinda testing the DOJ waters?

CL, the share holders (incl TH) voted for TPG because they got $.50/share more and all cash. The funds that hold the stock don't care about the employees or the airline -- they get their pay out.

Just my humble opinion.
 

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