Corporate long haul demand concerning
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UPDATE: Bankers Flying Economy? Credit Crunch To Hit Aviation Too
December 06, 2007: 09:26 AM EST
LONDON (Dow Jones) -- Bankers had better get accustomed to flying coach.
As financial firms tighten their corporate travel budgets, oil prices continue to hover near record highs and the risk of a U.S. recession looms, the civil aerospace sector looks set for a challenging 2008, with airlines and aircraft makers vulnerable to fallout from the global credit crisis.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) recently cut its forecast for global airline profitability next year to $7.8 billion from $9.6 billion, with a revised oil assumption of $67 barrel from $63.
In a speech last month in Washington, IATA Chief Executive Giovanni Bisignani warned of potential turbulence ahead for the industry.
"The credit crunch throws a shadow over the economic expansion that underlies our good performance. Airlines are $200 billion in debt and we could be heading for a downturn with little cash in the bank to cushion the fall," he said.
Fuel costs are continuing to climb, with a total bill for the industry of $132 billion this year, more than four times what it was in 2002, according to IATA.
Sometimes high oil prices can be a good thing.
Below a certain level, they provide an impetus for airlines to replace older aircraft with more fuel-efficient jets, and thus help pad the order books of Boeing Co (BA) and European rival Airbus, an EADS company, said Robert Cullemore, a senior associate at U.K. aerospace consultancy Aviation Economics.
But Credit Suisse analysts warned earlier this week that the oil price has now gone beyond the tipping point "where it could become such a large drag on airline cash flows that financing new aircraft becomes very challenging."
As a consequence, the broker now believes 2007 represents the peak of the cycle for commercial aircraft orders.
To make things worse, Airbus, an EADS company, is being hammered by the weakness of the dollar because a large chunk of its production and component work takes place in Europe, but its contracts are in dollars. Airbus Chief Executive Tom Enders said last month that the slide of the greenback now threatens the very survival of the company.
"The dollar's rapid decline is life-threatening for Airbus," Enders said. "The dollar exchange rate has gone beyond the pain barrier."
Airbus says each 10 cent decline in the dollar against the euro costs it 1 billion euros in profit.
Slowing economic growth yet to bite
Other factors, such as slowing economic growth and the looming risk of a recession in the U.S., are also darkening the picture. Historically, air traffic growth has indeed been highly correlated to economic growth.
Credit Suisse noted that while the euro zone and the U.S. have recently revised down their gross domestic product (GDP) forecasts for 2008, the downgrades have yet to feed through to airline outlooks.
A weakening of corporate travel demand is also a concern for 2008 as financial institutions, which are prime customers of airlines' business programs, tighten their budgets in the wake of heavy credit-related losses.
"I would expect corporate travel to be negatively impacted by the global credit crisis insofar as the crisis leads to job losses and reduced activity in the financial sector," said Aviation Economics' Cullemore.
He said there may be a "lag effect" because many of the transactions that banks, consultancies and law firms are engaged in were mandated prior to the credit crunch.
"So there may not be any negative effects until spring/summer 2008," he said.
Some airlines, however, are already seeing some signs of a slowdown.
British Airways Plc , Europe's third-largest airline, on Wednesday said that while premium long-haul traffic held up in November, it saw some weakness in premium short-haul traffic as corporate customers adjust their travel policy on short routes.
Some analysts also cautioned that long-haul may not hold up in the longer term.
While ticket prices have remained "remarkably" solid so far, Credit Suisse expressed concern of a slump "particularly on long-haul business routes given the profit declines being reported across financial services."
Morgan Stanley also recently examined the outlook for corporate travel in 2008 and found that budgets are better positioned to weather high oil prices than a slowdown in the U.S. economy.
Respondents to a survey it conducted said persistent high fuel costs, economic troubles and potential allegiance shifts, as a result of the "open-skies" agreement, could be "very rapidly reflected in travel budgets in 2008."
Over 50% of respondents said they believe a U.S. recession would impact budgets within one quarter; and nearly 70% of respondents expect negative developments in budgets as a result of persistent high oil prices.
Taking stock of all these negative factors, Goldman Sachs earlier this week cut its earning estimates for the majority of the flag carriers.
Goldman said while the airlines it speaks to indicate no demand weakness yet, bookings don't really take off until after the Christmas break.
"We also believe that capital-market sensitive demand is softening," Goldman said.
At Deutsche Bank, Chris Reid on Nov. 27 cut its rating on Air France-KLM (AKH) , Europe's largest airline, to hold from buy, citing the risk of a global recession in 2008.
U.S. carriers take action
In the U.S., the darkening outlook has prompted several airlines to take preventive measures.
Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV), Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL) and Continental Airlines Inc. (CAL) said earlier this week they're scaling back plans to add more flights and seats next year.
"We are concerned about growing evidence of slowing economic growth that would inevitably affect passenger demand, coupled with a surge in energy prices," Southwest Chief Executive Gary Kelly said in a statement.
But it's not all gloom and doom just yet, particularly for the aircraft manufacturers.
Credit Suisse noted that lease rates remain strong, suggesting airlines see short-term capacity requirements. Over the past year, leasing rates for 737 aircraft have increased the most, by about 10%, followed by 767s, at around 8%, according to the broker.
"If this trend is sustained into early 2008, we would see this as a positive for the cycle outlook," Credit Suisse said.
But the broker still warned investors not to be fooled by aircraft makers' bulging order books.
During downturns the backlog often proves to be a highly unreliable guide to deliveries --when the plane makers actually get paid -- since they're often willing to accommodate delays if additional capacity is no longer needed, the broker said.
At the end of 2000, Airbus had almost 450 aircraft on order for delivery in 2002. However, it delivered only 303 because of a slowdown that began in May 2001, and accelerated after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, SARS and the prospect of war in Afghanistan, Credit Suisse said.
