All Knowing Michael Boyd on possible Mergers

[dashocho]

Blue horseshoe loves Blue Star Airlines.

"Gekko!"

Haha!

 

[ironspud]

Sure, he's pompous and arrogant, but I find it refreshing to read his stuff, because he calls it like it is....and that is almost impossible to find in traditional media circles. I can't think of any airline analyst whose opinion I would consistently value above Boyd's.

Who is that other guy from UAL?

 

[Noserider76]

Consolidation means you will put more of those critical city-pairs under control of fewer Marketing Departments. You will also "gut hook" more Frequent Flyers (who see their road-weary souls for a nice seat) under fewer program managers.

The result will drive up revenue.

But for how long and at what cost? There has been considerable consolidation in the industry up to this point and someone always comes and fills in where the merged carriers cut. In the mean time the merger eliminates jobs and reeks havoc on the individual labor groups.

I see consolidation as just a way to shrink the legacy carriers and let the LCCs come in and fill the gap. There will be a temporary revenue bump but the lack of competition will be filled and in the end it will just transfer our jobs over to another company, I'm afraid.

I hope Boyd is right on this one. It will be much less painful for the large companies to aquire smaller ones than for two goliaths to be put in the same cage.

 

[Occam's Razor]

I hope he's right too.

But I don't think he is.

I think the days of chutzpah-infected CEO's ignoring incursions into their turf ("hubs") are over.

DAL didn't take ValueJet seriously. Ditto UAL with Frontier.

Lesson learned.

AirTran ("Son-of-Critter") tries to think outside the bun...NWA steps in and yoinks Midwest.

The industry runs on testosterone. That will fuel consolidation after the hedge Fund weenies light the fire.

 

[igneousy2]

I disagree that there will not be a domino effect once one major deal goes through. Airlines like most businesses are monkey-see monkey-do. Once someone disrupts the status quo then you will see the other players act. If something like a UAL-DAL does happen do you really think that AA will allow themselves to become the #2 airline just because it is hard to do? AA is not afraid of acquisitiions, Air California, Reno Air, TWA. I don't believe that AA will allow themselves to be #2 for long.

 

[igneousy2]

Another interesting point I read/heard somewhere was that there is a little bit of time pressure to get a deal done sooner than later. If a deal is done now it will probably receive little scruitny to the business friendly Republican justice department. If you wait until 2009 and the Republicans don't win the whitehouse - it will bcome more difficult to get one of these deals through with a labor-friendly White House.

 

[SNOWBUM]

In order to prevent LCC's from filling the gap left by possible legacy mergers and to remove low price competitors, my prediction is that we will see legacies buying LCC's before they merge among themselves.

no frontier,spirit ,jb or alaska in 3 years.they will be absorbed by trunk carriers before the end on 2010.

I'm taking bets.

 

[The Prussian]

Yeah,...but it takes just one euphoric moment to make a bad decision that sticks with you for a lifetime (AMR buying TWA, or AWA taking on USAIR). I don't thimk it will be that quick or easy for a CEO to jump and make a decision as you suggest, regarding LCC's, either... Recent history has not been kind to these types of moves.

 

[AlbieF15]

Don't listen to Occam...he's a fag. :nuts:

Seriously...quit polluting these discussions with insight and wit. Dammit...this is Flight INFO!

 

[Rez O. Lewshun]

No where did Boyd say that Air Line Pilots had a right to a career.... so get that entitlement and expecatation out of your head!!

:beer: Albie.... more of your homophobe? Occam flew F-4's...not those pansy F-15's:beer:

 

[AlbieF15]

Well...if I don't stir the pot here and there I'm afraid he'll slither back under his rock. He and few others usually have some pretty insightful comments.

You, on the other hand, are just another pinko socialist...(but hey...if I get elected in December I guess I'll be become part of the party too!)

 

[Kharma Police]

I hope he's right too.

But I don't think he is.

I think the days of chutzpah-infected CEO's ignoring incursions into their turf ("hubs") are over.

DAL didn't take ValueJet seriously. Ditto UAL with Frontier.

Lesson learned.

AirTran ("Son-of-Critter") tries to think outside the bun...NWA steps in and yoinks Midwest.

The industry runs on testosterone. That will fuel consolidation after the hedge Fund weenies light the fire.

AirTran used to be ValuJet?!? When did that happen?

 

[Lebowski]

In order to prevent LCC's from filling the gap left by possible legacy mergers and to remove low price competitors, my prediction is that we will see legacies buying LCC's before they merge among themselves.

no frontier,spirit ,jb or alaska in 3 years.they will be absorbed by trunk carriers before the end on 2010.

I'm taking bets.

This happens to be my opinion, also.

There is yet another option, however. When you think about an LCC like Southwest, they seem too large and powerful to get swallowed up in the same way as the others you mentioned. Which leads me to wonder if we could see a merger of some other fairly complementary LCCs (JB + Frontier + Spirit) to create another supersized LCC (like Southwest but with AirBii) BEFORE they become easy-pickins' takeover targets as individual companies.

 

[Floatplane]

AirTran used to be ValuJet?!? When did that happen?

Actually, ValuJet bought AirTran and took the name to leave the negitive association with the ValuJet name behind. At the time AirTran was a very small company.

 

[Rez O. Lewshun]

You, on the other hand, are just another pinko socialist...(but hey...if I get elected in December I guess I'll be become part of the party too!)

Albie...who knew that you'd be defending the US Constitution only to turn around and decome a union commie pinko facist pig. Your UPT intructor is probably vomiting right now!! (hint: sarcasm is thick)

Pinko socialist? Not sure where that comes from... (well actually I do.... how about companies that threaten job security in exchange for total control...Corp America has run an anti-union [aka workers self government] culture for centuries... and we've bought into it...) since when is elected representation, voting and democracy drawn from the US Constitution and the foundation made by our Founding Fathers socialist...???

Now on the other hand..... working for a human values-less corporation that would rather NOT have its workers the RIGHT to self governement seems to be quite socialist if not down right communist...

Thanks to the men and women of the US Armed Forces that defend the US Consitution so that we may fashion our organizations (unions, civic leagues, HOA's, etc... in the form of self government...)

Now that we have the freedom to do so...we must accept the responsibility.....