Delta Retirements

[Truckdriver]

I have the estimated retirement numbers at DAL through 2028, does anyone have them through 2036? I am interested in looking at seniority dynamics until I would retire if I were to go to DAL. If anyone has that info or any updated retirement info on DAL that would be great.

 

[General Lee]

I have the estimated retirement numbers at DAL through 2028, does anyone have them through 2036? I am interested in looking at seniority dynamics until I would retire if I were to go to DAL. If anyone has that info or any updated retirement info on DAL that would be great.

I don't have the numbers, but I have heard that we have less than 500 over 55, and about 1000 over 50. We just lost 2300 captains in the pension grab, so there won't be too many bailing out, although I have heard there will be some leaving after they get their equity claims and pension note share. I have no clue how many will leave though. Most of the future hiring is for growth, with many 777s, 787s, 757s (13 from TWA coming), 737-700s, and 100 seaters coming. The MD88s will not retire until 2012 supposedly because their lease rates were knocked down from $280,000 a month to $80,000 a month while in BK, and it will be a gradual retirement for those planes.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[BID]

• Thirteen additional ex-TWA 757s will be added from Jul 2007 to Jan 2008
• Delta placed an order for 10 737-700s and 5 additional B777-200LRs for 2008-2009 delivery Four more 777-200LR orders for 2010 for a total of 9 additional 777-200LRs
• Selling 38 future 737-800s on order

Information from airlinepilotcentral.com

You guys have not ordered the 787 or 100 seat aircraft as of yet, correct? I will not be at all surprised when Delta orders these aircraft, management is probably working on a deal as we write. However, there is no order yet, right?

How long do you think an upgrade will be at Delta? To be honest with you, it sounds like upward movement will be very slow.

 

[737 Pylt]

• Thirteen additional ex-TWA 757s will be added from Jul 2007 to Jan 2008
• Delta placed an order for 10 737-700s and 5 additional B777-200LRs for 2008-2009 delivery Four more 777-200LR orders for 2010 for a total of 9 additional 777-200LRs
• Selling 38 future 737-800s on order

Information from airlinepilotcentral.com

You guys have not ordered the 787 or 100 seat aircraft as of yet, correct? I will not be at all surprised when Delta orders these aircraft, management is probably working on a deal as we write. However, there is no order yet, right?

Bid:
Nothing official yet.....Rumors run rampant though. I would look for an official announcement shortly. You know, to run up the stock price.
Unoficially, I've heard 20 777's, and up to 40 787's. There is also some talk that we are about to finish a deal to bring on more MD 90's !

How long do you think an upgrade will be at Delta? To be honest with you, it sounds like upward movement will be very slow.

The most junior 88 captain is in NYC and is a late 1998 hire. So it looks like 9 years right now.....
Expect that to change as we take on additional (new) aircraft. With the 100 seat airframe coming to mainline, it is highly likely you might see 2 year upgrades like we had with express.....
737

 

[refplusnone]

Bid:
There is also some talk that we are about to finish a deal to bring on more MD 90's !

Is the MD90 still in production? I just assumed that with the 717 line being cut that included the 90....

I may be showing how long it's been since I've been paying attention with this post, but so be it.

 

[anewunion]

the MD-90's are to come from Asia..

 

[Mookie]

I don't have the numbers, but I have heard that we have less than 500 over 55, and about 1000 over 50. We just lost 2300 captains in the pension grab, so there won't be too many bailing out, although I have heard there will be some leaving after they get their equity claims and pension note share. I have no clue how many will leave though. Most of the future hiring is for growth, with many 777s, 787s, 757s (13 from TWA coming), 737-700s, and 100 seaters coming. The MD88s will not retire until 2012 supposedly because their lease rates were knocked down from $280,000 a month to $80,000 a month while in BK, and it will be a gradual retirement for those planes.

Bye Bye--General Lee

So, I wonder in an alternate universe if there is a blog out there for aircraft lessors who all say, "yeah, Delta can make money...they don't pay for their ********************ing airplanes!!!!"

Not that I'm either pro-JetBlue, or anti Delta, but........if it walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck....
Mookie

 

[ACL65PILOT]

The MD-90's that are in question are from China and there are 15 that may make their way to the property. They are working on deals on them as we type.
Also the MD series are not going to be leaving until 2015 at the latest. The reason is that they do not want to purchase a bunch of 737 that they will have to replace when the 73E7 rolls out. Basically they are trying to satisfy the gap until that aircraft come on line in 2012+.
When it comes to 777 they is a possibility of 18 LR's. At least that is the last official number. That will more than likely change.
They want the 787 to replace the 767. I would look to the IFLC orders. There may be a few DL birds in that mix. I am also guessing that Boeing and Delta are working on a deal to open another production line so that Delta can be the first on the new line. Wait and see on this one.
With the 100 seater. No aircraft truly fits the bill. The 190/195 is good but there are issue there than makes Delta nervous. Fact is that they need an airframe and this lift. Expect there to be some sort of order for the 190/95, 737-700 or the 318(unlikely) in the next six months. They know that there are a lot of markets that the RJ is serving that need the extra payload lift. More for cargo than for people.
In any case there will be a lot of orders coming.

Looking at the retirement list that is posted. There are a less than 100 in on and it goes up from there. Basically from 2011 to 2020 there are good numbers in the retirement forecast, but all that will change with the age 65 rule. As the general said. Most of the hiring will be for growth not attrition.

 

[Truckdriver]

Looking at the retirements alone without growth, I would be in the top 50% of the DAL list by 2018. Throw a few hundred newhires per year in for growth and it would be around 2015. Looks like the first two to three years would be slow, but then the upward move would be very fast. Upgrades would be almost certain within 8-10 years if nothing big happens. Also, one thing to look at is the current junior captain is a 1998 hire. There is really only 3 years of people behind that person before you get to newhires. Once upgrades go a few more years down the list, upgrades will jump to 2007 hires. Get some 195's, and upgrades will be 1 or two years in my opinion. I would just like to see where I would be the last 10 years there and need the numbers out to 2036. I would be in the top 10% at age 50 with the numbers I have now. I just need to see an e-mail and get the job.

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

I hope AA and DAL have a lot of fuel hedges.

You are going to need them operating the Super 80's and MD88's. The competition on some of those routes will be 737NGs and A320s.


As far as total expenses, though, waiting for the 787 instead of going 737 may be a good plan. As long as the fuel expense doesn't eat you up.


I'm hearing the MD88 is doing a lot of international flying now. Those look like good, high margin routes to use that gas burner.

 

[FDJ2]

I hope AA and DAL have a lot of fuel hedges.

You are going to need them operating the Super 80's and MD88's. The competition on some of those routes will be 737NGs and A320s.


As far as total expenses, though, waiting for the 787 instead of going 737 may be a good plan. As long as the fuel expense doesn't eat you up.


I'm hearing the MD88 is doing a lot of international flying now. Those look like good, high margin routes to use that gas burner.

+++

The MD88 is doing some shorter stage international flying, but I wouldn't say it's doing a lot of international flying.

I believe you might be over stating the differences in fuel burn between a 737-800 and a MD-90/88. While there is some difference, I don't believe it is that significant. Regardless, if DAL can swing a deal for some MD90s/88s at lease rates that are potentially over $120,000/month less than a 737, that goes a long way to making up some of that additional fuel expense.

 

[Bavarian Chef]

Looking at the retirements alone without growth, I would be in the top 50% of the DAL list by 2018. Throw a few hundred newhires per year in for growth and it would be around 2015. Looks like the first two to three years would be slow, but then the upward move would be very fast. Upgrades would be almost certain within 8-10 years if nothing big happens. Also, one thing to look at is the current junior captain is a 1998 hire. There is really only 3 years of people behind that person before you get to newhires. Once upgrades go a few more years down the list, upgrades will jump to 2007 hires. Get some 195's, and upgrades will be 1 or two years in my opinion. I would just like to see where I would be the last 10 years there and need the numbers out to 2036. I would be in the top 10% at age 50 with the numbers I have now. I just need to see an e-mail and get the job.

Weren't you a big jb koolaid drinker not long ago or am I confusing you with someone?

 

[instructordude]

the MD-90's are to come from Asia..

How fast does the 90 go?

 

[ACL65PILOT]

I agree on the retirement issue. I looked at it before I came here and this is what I saw. Basically a junior F/O for 10 years and then over the next five year I would move from reserve on the ER to Capt. on the ER. In the 2015-2020 range (45-50 for me) there will be a slew of retirements. Basically the 2000 pilots that were hired between 1988 and 1991.
Either way it is a good deal.
On the MD series v/s the A320 and other less costly aircraft. Delta has an advantage that AMR does not. We renegotiated out lease payments to 80K a month. A 200K per month savings per aircraft. With 130 on the property that it a substantial savings in out of pocket expenses. It basically makes the paying field level when it comes to route competition.

 

[Truckdriver]

Weren't you a big jb koolaid drinker not long ago or am I confusing you with someone?

Nope, that was probably me. JetBlue was always my #2 plan and Delta wasn't hiring when I went to JetBlue. I had to get out of the regional world when I had the chance, and figured if Delta never hired again I would be happy at JetBlue for 35 years. JetBlue is great and all, but I think I might be better off the next 35 years at Delta. JetBlue is a great airline, has an awesome product, and is a fantastic place to work. JetBlue was the only airline I applied at while I was at the regionals, and Delta is the ONLY airline I would leave JetBlue for. It's all for selfish reasons that don't include me wondering about the stability of JetBlue.

 

[EMBpilot]

...Basically a junior F/O for 10 years and then over the next five year I would move from reserve on the ER to Capt. on the ER.

In the 2015-2020 range (45-50 for me) there will be a slew of retirements.

Just want to understand better.. You were planning on 10 years as a FO on most junior aircraft?
10-15 MD -> 767ER FO.
Then at longevity of 15 move from a reserve FO on the 767ER to Capt. on 767ER?

Does it still look about the same now?

Thanks

 

[~~~^~~~]

The MD90 burns 15% less fuel than an MD88 and has room for another 12 to 15 seats.

I'm not sure how this compares to a 737-700, or 737-800. It would likely be the case that they are pretty evenly matched on short stage lengths, but the 737's more advanced wing has to provide a benefit over the long haul where it can get up high and scoot. When you consider a new 737 is a mid forties to fifty million dollar purchase, an MD90 in the used market is probably a reasonably priced alternative and available sooner.

Also, nobody has many MD90's. If one operator gets most of them an economy of scale could be realized.

What speeds does the FMS usually provide for the MD88's? From what little reading I've done the wing starts to have flow separation at M .755 and the wing is not very big to begin with. With fuel prices and cost indexes being what they are, I'm guessing M.74 in the low to mid thirties for an average..?..

Looks like Delta is thinking out of the box, but getting the numbers right for a sub 2,000 mile aircraft.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

With cost indexes near 20 it cruises at or about 74 to 75.
If you put the cost index up near 70 (Not currently dispatched that way expect on shuttle ops) You can get 77 to 79 easily at 350.

 

[EMBpilot]

Looking at the retirements alone without growth, I would be in the top 50% of the DAL list by 2018.


Just wanted to make sure I understand your math..
If Delta has 6800 pilots now and 1500 will retire in the next 10 then by 2018 you should be around 5300, right? That would equal ~78%.

Throw a few hundred newhires per year in for growth and it would be around 2015.

For you (and me) to be at 50% by 2018 Delta would have to have ~10600 pilots.


... I would be in the top 10% at age 50 with the numbers I have now. I just need to see an e-mail and get the job.

Would you mind sharing your numbers - I just want to figure it out because it is indeed very exiting! PM me, please.

Thanks and good luck to us all

 

[Truckdriver]

Would you mind sharing your numbers - I just want to figure it out because it is indeed very exiting! PM me, please.

Thanks and good luck to us all

Here is the theory and it is just that a theory. I am 100% certain it will change, but for now this is all we can look at not knowing what will change. I figured 6700 total at the start of 2007. Factored in the retirement numbers NOT including the age 65 change which will just push stuff back 3-5 years. My retirement list shows about 2900 cumulative retirements by 2018. With NO growth, that would put someone hired today at around 55% in 2018. I then factored in growth back to about 8600 pilots which should be close based on firm orders. I did 300 per year through 2013. With that someone hired now would be about 44% by 2018. With no more growth after that, someone hired today would be in the top 10% by 2028. Those retirement numbers were from a friend and now that I have access to the list, I'm going to figure them out on my own. I just don't have time until I'm done with training.

 

[Truckdriver]

Just checked the ALPA site and it shows about 3000 age 60 retirements by 2018. There are 548 in 2018 alone. Here is the list that shows retirements each year at Delta through 2036.

2007 21
2008 61
2009 75
2010 89
2011 133
2012 158
2013 218
2014 273
2015 348
2016 483
2017 571
2018 548
2019 543
2020 470
2021 419
2022 319
2023 308
2024 306
2025 325
2026 297
2027 228
2028 203
2029 134
2030 92
2031 87
2032 47
2033 28
2034 16
2035 7
2036 1

With those numbers should be about 55% by 2018 with NO additional growth and around 45% if they grow back up to around 9000. I really don't think you will be an FO for ten years unless you choose to be for QOL reasons.

 

[EMBpilot]

Truckdriver,

Thanks for your time and affort. Indeed it looks better than the 1500 mentioned above.

 

[spongebob]

Sounds like lots of people like to make predictions about where an airline will be in x years. My guess is: who knows. After age 65 (68?), a couple of mergers, oil at $100+ a barrel, foreign ownership and eventual total cabotage, I can only hope to still be employed in the US.

As for good koolaid, the latest from the DAL people I saw today:

Delta has hired 163 pilots since February

New Hire Stats (as of July 16): 163 total
40 were prior military
5 came from Airtran
6 came from American Eagle
51 came from ASA
7 came from Chautauqua
7 came from Comair
8 came from Express Jet
6 came from Jet Blue
10 came from Skywest
10 came directly from the Navy
15 came directly from the Air Force
4 came directly from the Marines
the others came from various carriers

Future:

Delta is expected to have at least two “New Hire” classes per month for the rest of the year. Each class is projected to have at least 20 pilots if not more in it. Rumors are that class sizes could grow to 30 or 45 every two weeks.



Good luck at DAL or any other place,

SB

 

[spongebob]

Sounds like lots of people like to make predictions about where an airline will be in x years. My guess is: who knows. After age 65 (68?), a couple of mergers, oil at $100+ a barrel, foreign ownership and eventual total cabotage, I can only hope to still be employed in the US.

As for good koolaid, the latest from the DAL people I saw today:

Delta has hired 163 pilots since February

New Hire Stats (as of July 16): 163 total
40 were prior military
5 came from Airtran
6 came from American Eagle
51 came from ASA
7 came from Chautauqua
7 came from Comair
8 came from Express Jet
6 came from Jet Blue
10 came from Skywest
10 came directly from the Navy
15 came directly from the Air Force
4 came directly from the Marines
the others came from various carriers

Future:

Delta is expected to have at least two “New Hire” classes per month for the rest of the year. Each class is projected to have at least 20 pilots if not more in it. Rumors are that class sizes could grow to 30 or 45 every two weeks.


Good luck at DAL or any other place,

SB

 

[timetoquit]

Why so many from the regionals? What about guys with heavy time or from other majors/nationals looking for a better place to go?

 

[Diesel-9]

When were those DAL numbers updated? I have a Jan '07 document that isn't near that high of numbers in the 2012-2016 time frame.

 

[EMBpilot]

When were those DAL numbers updated? I have a Jan '07 document that isn't near that high of numbers in the 2012-2016 time frame.

Please correct me if I am wrong, but those numbers could be pre "'05 prebankruptcy exodus".

 

[igneousy2]

Sounds like lots of people like to make predictions about where an airline will be in x years. My guess is: who knows. After age 65 (68?), a couple of mergers, oil at $100+ a barrel, foreign ownership and eventual total cabotage, I can only hope to still be employed in the US.

As for good koolaid, the latest from the DAL people I saw today:

Delta has hired 163 pilots since February

New Hire Stats (as of July 16): 163 total
40 were prior military
5 came from Airtran
6 came from American Eagle
51 came from ASA
7 came from Chautauqua
7 came from Comair
8 came from Express Jet
6 came from Jet Blue
10 came from Skywest
10 came directly from the Navy
15 came directly from the Air Force
4 came directly from the Marines
the others came from various carriers

Future:

Delta is expected to have at least two “New Hire” classes per month for the rest of the year. Each class is projected to have at least 20 pilots if not more in it. Rumors are that class sizes could grow to 30 or 45 every two weeks.


Good luck at DAL or any other place,

SB

So is the "40 prior miltary" double counted...i.e. a fighter jock that did a brief stint at JetBlue would be counted as both?

Later

 

[Truckdriver]

Please correct me if I am wrong, but those numbers could be pre "'05 prebankruptcy exodus".

Don't have a date for the update, but if it was pre bankruptcy exodus then there would be lots of retirements prior to 2010. I think is is after the exodus because there are very few retirements until around 2011. The big numbers from 2015 and beyond are all the 35-40 year olds hired in the 90's. When I get a list with a date on it I'll add them up, but I think those numbers are very close.

 

[Truckdriver]

Sounds like lots of people like to make predictions about where an airline will be in x years. My guess is: who knows. After age 65 (68?), a couple of mergers, oil at $100+ a barrel, foreign ownership and eventual total cabotage, I can only hope to still be employed in the US.

SB

You are absolutely correct. I'd bet everything I have that the numbers and projections we look at today will be completely different in 10 years. Right now however, they look good and that is really all you can go on. If I knew oil was going to $100/bbl and cabatoge was going to happen, I'd be going to Emirates. Not quite willing to live in Dubai just in case that happens so I'll take my chances. I think that foreign ownership and cabatoge are going to cause more problems than many of us think and they will probably be the biggest threat to our careers going forward.