NJ Late Feb Interview results

[captain dad]

There are guys taking the 400 right at two years if not less. The Ultra / Encore at two and a half. Will this continue? You look at A/C on order and slow but steady attrition...I say at most three years and two to two and a half for the first available. I have moved up almost thirty numbers in the last three months so some guys are leaving. It won't be five years to upgrade.

 

[Fozzy]

I would say that 4 years is more accurate. Could be as long as 5 years.

You are correct. Guys already here. 3-4. Newhire 4-5.
I am now on the record.

 

[fischman]

You are correct. Guys already here. 3-4. Newhire 4-5.
I am now on the record.

I like being correct. :beer:

 

[captain dad]

That's funny because I just flew with a new upgrade who has been here just over two years and my sim partner (upgrade) had only been here two and a half. They both waited so they didn't have to take the 400. I might be missing something, but why do you say four to five years for a new hire? I am just curious how you come to that conclusion. Or are you just trying to bait?

 

[skiandsurf]

That's funny because I just flew with a new upgrade who has been here just over two years and my sim partner (upgrade) had only been here two and a half. They both waited so they didn't have to take the 400. I might be missing something, but why do you say four to five years for a new hire? I am just curious how you come to that conclusion. Or are you just trying to bait?

Been at NJs for 13 months. In the 2200's. If I upgrade within 2 years (3 yrs total), I will be surprised.

Losing about 10 pilots a month. The senior guys going to NJI and the junior guys tired of driving 5+ hrs. We are supposed to get the Hawker 950 (?), but then again we were supposed to take the Hawker 4000 back in Nov....still not here.

With no set retirement age, it is too hard to predict when these older guys will move on.

Seems like most the captains I fly with are mid 30s. Have flown with one 65+ guy and one 50+ guy.

Supposed to net 32 planes this year.

 

[gunfyter]

I think the math is pretty easy.

If 70% are Captains... you need to move into the top 70% before you make Captain.

When will that be if I am number 2700?

Answer: When there are 3857 pilots on the property.

When will that be? Hiring 350 per year... will take 3 yrs and 4 months. At 300 per yr it would take 3 yrs and 10 months.

 

[Ultra Grump]

There are guys taking the 400 right at two years if not less. The Ultra / Encore at two and a half. Will this continue? You look at A/C on order and slow but steady attrition...I say at most three years and two to two and a half for the first available. I have moved up almost thirty numbers in the last three months so some guys are leaving. It won't be five years to upgrade.

The last Ultra bid went to 2 yrs 4 months. There hasn't been a 400 award since Feb '06, and it went to 3 yrs 7 mos (at that time). The guys that are PICs on the 400 with 2 yrs seniority got the award pretty much while they were still in indoc, due to uncertainty about the as-yet-unresolved contract negotiations.

 

[SafetyTheSeat]

Been at NJs for 13 months. In the 2200's. If I upgrade within 2 years (3 yrs total), I will be surprised.

Losing about 10 pilots a month. The senior guys going to NJI and the junior guys tired of driving 5+ hrs. We are supposed to get the Hawker 950 (?), but then again we were supposed to take the Hawker 4000 back in Nov....still not here.

With no set retirement age, it is too hard to predict when these older guys will move on.

Seems like most the captains I fly with are mid 30s. Have flown with one 65+ guy and one 50+ guy.

Supposed to net 32 planes this year.

I drove for 7.8 years! Yep 7.8 years...

 

[skiandsurf]

I drove for 7.8 years! Yep 7.8 years...

Not sure what that is supposed to mean, but I have been driving for 25 years. Yep, 25 years.

 

[captain dad]

I think the math is pretty easy.

If 70% are Captains... you need to move into the top 70% before you make Captain.

When will that be if I am number 2700?

Answer: When there are 3857 pilots on the property.

When will that be? Hiring 350 per year... will take 3 yrs and 4 months. At 300 per yr it would take 3 yrs and 10 months.

If you want to be as accurate as possible you need to figure in attrition which has been between 100 to 150 per year in the past. Who knows what it will be now that the airlines have started to recall and hire. Personally, I had financially planned on four to five years. I seriously think it will be much less than that. It all depends on aircraft deliveries and hiring rate. Keep your fingers crossed.

A friend of mine interviewed and hired a month ago and was told "they (the company) wouldn't be surprised if they didn't see some upgrades in less than two years." Now that is real optimism.

 

[jonjuan]

Been at NJs for 13 months. In the 2200's. If I upgrade within 2 years (3 yrs total), I will be surprised.

Losing about 10 pilots a month. The senior guys going to NJI and the junior guys tired of driving 5+ hrs. We are supposed to get the Hawker 950 (?), but then again we were supposed to take the Hawker 4000 back in Nov....still not here.

With no set retirement age, it is too hard to predict when these older guys will move on.

Seems like most the captains I fly with are mid 30s. Have flown with one 65+ guy and one 50+ guy.

Supposed to net 32 planes this year.

There will also be a mass exodus of Ultras and Xs as many get to 10-years of age over the next 3-4 years. "Expect" the net aircraft gain to drop to keep expectations realistic.

 

[Floyd94]

A friend of mine interviewed and hired a month ago and was told "they (the company) wouldn't be surprised if they didn't see some upgrades in less than two years." Now that is real optimism.

Thats what I'm talkin' about!:beer:

 

[skiandsurf]

There will also be a mass exodus of Ultras and Xs as many get to 10-years of age over the next 3-4 years. "Expect" the net aircraft gain to drop to keep expectations realistic.

This is why I said "net 32 planes this year". It takes into account for the planes leaving.

I am already being "realistic" with my above stated 3 year upgrade. If if takes 5 yrs, that would suck. But I would rather have a longer upgrade time with a great company, than a shorter upgrade time with a sh!tty company.

 

[Fozzy]

But I would rather have a longer upgrade time with a great company, than a shorter upgrade time with a sh!tty company.

Word.

I think it will be longer because my gut tells me a lot of guys will be bailing out of the ultra and 400 for the XL, Sov and X. So that leaves spots in the 560 and 400. I don't see the 400 growing and would not be shocked if it just goes away. It is a POS. The wild card is the 560/Encore/Encore+/CJ4. If they don't show up, it is going to be a longer wait. We are shrinking the 560 fleet.

Just alot of rambling, I know. It is like reading tea leaves.

But plan for 4-5 and hope for 2-3.

 

[fischman]

That's funny because I just flew with a new upgrade who has been here just over two years and my sim partner (upgrade) had only been here two and a half. They both waited so they didn't have to take the 400. I might be missing something, but why do you say four to five years for a new hire? I am just curious how you come to that conclusion. Or are you just trying to bait?

The numbers I came up with depend on a couple of assumptions. 1) NetJets doesn't all of the sudden get >50 planes overnight. 2) There isn't a mass exodus of pilots at NetJets. 3) I am talking about the person that currently holds the seniority number 2600. 4) In the most recent award to come out the most junior pilot was in the low 1800's, I can't remember the exact number, but believe it was around 1830. 5) A union rep said that the number of upgrades for 2007 are going to be anywhere from 150 to 220. 6) This doesn't take into account the pilots junior to 1800 who are currently PICs.

Here's the math I used.

2600-1800= 800

800/220= 3.63 years

800/150= 5.33 years

Both are extremes, so I figured about 4 years for an upgrade.

For all who disagree with this keep in mind that I used alot of assumptions, and I am well aware that these can change at any time.