DAL won't seek white knight

[737 Pylt]

But before this thread descends into another epic Flt info pissin' match,lets keep in mind it doesn't matter want you, me,the unions, Parker or Grinstein have to say. What it's going to come down to is wha the banks and the unsecured creditors decide.
PHXFLYR

How dare you!!!!!!!!!!! In all that is holy and not.....You know darn well world problems are solved right here in FI! Airline CEO's, Union heads as well as Heads of State could learn alot from us know it all pilots! Everything will be solved on here from now on....All world problems, airline management problems....World wars/peace, you name it.
I can't believe you would dare cross that line!!!!!!!:smash:

BTW, all the above was TIC for the flamebaiters!

737

 

[lowecur]

Think about it

Why is Doug going after DL in lieu of NWA? NWA has a similar fleet plus their network doesn't overlap. They are both in BK, thus allowing Doug to carve it up any way he likes.

In the grand scheme of things on Wall St, it's my guess that NWA is already spoken for by other bankers that are busy putting the final touch's on a deal. Most likely CAL, since AMR and UAL seem to be the odd men out at this point, although UAL will probably make a bid for DL in the near future with Goldman. Continental CEO, Larry Kellner is at the head of the class as far as airline mgt is concerned and would likely lead a combined NWA and CAL.

US Airways stock is already at $60, thus increasing the $8B bid to almost $9B and another billion will be added on as this proposal gains more momentum and the stock price rises to between $72- 78. A $10 to $11B offer would be next to impossible for creditors to turn down and Doug knows it. I don't see any way that Grinstein could convince creditors that his homespun plan could come close to those numbers. In the end, money talks.

Carving up DL and the new US Airways to obtain synergies would not be as difficult as imagined. Remember, the ultimate goal is not creating a large dominant carrier, but to create a more profitable single carrier through synergistic consolidation.

imp:​

 

[737 Pylt]

Why is Doug going after DL in lieu of NWA? NWA has a similar fleet plus their network doesn't overlap. They are both in BK, thus allowing Doug to carve it up any way he likes.

In the grand scheme of things on Wall St, it's my guess that NWA is already spoken for by other bankers that are busy putting the final touch's on a deal. Most likely CAL, since AMR and UAL seem to be the odd men out at this point, although UAL will probably make a bid for DL in the near future with Goldman. Continental CEO, Larry Kellner is at the head of the class as far as airline mgt is concerned and would likely lead a combined NWA and CAL.

US Airways stock is already at $60, thus increasing the $8B bid to almost $9B and another billion will be added on as this proposal gains more momentum and the stock price rises to between $72- 78. A $10 to $11B offer would be next to impossible for creditors to turn down and Doug knows it. I don't see any way that Grinstein could convince creditors that his homespun plan could come close to those numbers. In the end, money talks.

Carving up DL and the new US Airways to obtain synergies would not be as difficult as imagined. Remember, the ultimate goal is not creating a large dominant carrier, but to create a more profitable single carrier through synergistic consolidation.

imp:​

And all the above is why you are an insurance salesman and not in aviation!

737

 

[XBOEINGDRVR]

Mergers and consolidation are coming- sooner or later. The sooner you guys realize it, all this arguing about routes, aircraft types, etc.. will end. just my opinion.......

 

[General Lee]

Why is Doug going after DL in lieu of NWA? NWA has a similar fleet plus their network doesn't overlap. They are both in BK, thus allowing Doug to carve it up any way he likes.

In the grand scheme of things on Wall St, it's my guess that NWA is already spoken for by other bankers that are busy putting the final touch's on a deal. Most likely CAL, since AMR and UAL seem to be the odd men out at this point, although UAL will probably make a bid for DL in the near future with Goldman. Continental CEO, Larry Kellner is at the head of the class as far as airline mgt is concerned and would likely lead a combined NWA and CAL.

US Airways stock is already at $60, thus increasing the $8B bid to almost $9B and another billion will be added on as this proposal gains more momentum and the stock price rises to between $72- 78. A $10 to $11B offer would be next to impossible for creditors to turn down and Doug knows it. I don't see any way that Grinstein could convince creditors that his homespun plan could come close to those numbers. In the end, money talks.

Carving up DL and the new US Airways to obtain synergies would not be as difficult as imagined. Remember, the ultimate goal is not creating a large dominant carrier, but to create a more profitable single carrier through synergistic consolidation.

imp:​

What you seem to overlook is that the bid by USAir, with the stock shooting up 16% the same day it was announced, also gave DL a huge boost, stating profoundly that Wall St thought $8 billion was cheap, or a good buy for USAir stockholders. That brings up our worth, in the eyes of our own exit financiers, and investors. They will be willing to put up more money due to our new worth. And, as you said money talks, but look at the creditor committee again. (Dalpa, Boeing (USAir is mostly Airbus), Coke (based in ATL), Pratt, and PBGC--they just want their money, and a deal is being made now) And, these same creditors were briefed a couple months ago about Parkers first advance, and they agreed it wasn't in the best interest of DL. Another fact is that if USAir were to win the bid, we would have to stay in BK another 12-18 months(re-doing contracts with suppliers etc), delaying payment again to those same creditors. And, to top it off, our CFO just announced he will bring us out of BK sooner, which isn't something Parker wants (see above). Money talks.... Stupid plans do too.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[lowecur]

And all the above is why you are an insurance salesman and not in aviation! The fields are interchangable. In fact many airline pilots go on to be successful insurance agents or if they can't pass the license test....they go to work for Home Depot.

737

.....

imp:​

 

[General Lee]

Mergers and consolidation are coming- sooner or later. The sooner you guys realize it, all this arguing about routes, aircraft types, etc.. will end. just my opinion.......

You may be right, but dumb mergers (with hubs close by, wrong fleet types etc) will not work. USAir and AWA worked because there was NO hub overlap (only a few flights conflicted, like PHL--LAS, and some other hub to spoke cities) and their fleets were close. That is not the case with DL. Not even close. No synergies at all. And, they haven't even integrated their own people on the first merger yet. Dumb mergers will never work.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[lowecur]

What you seem to overlook is that the bid by USAir, with the stock shooting up 16% the same day it was announced, also gave DL a huge boost, stating profoundly that Wall St thought $8 billion was cheap, or a good buy for USAir stockholders. That brings up our worth, in the eyes of our own exit financiers, and investors. They will be willing to put up more money due to our new worth. What you seem to forget is that DL's valuation as a single carrier is much less than the synergistic value of the combined two carriers. And, as you said money talks, but look at the creditor committee again. (Dalpa, Boeing (USAir is mostly Airbus), Coke (based in ATL), Pratt, and PBGC--they just want their money, and a deal is being made now) And, these same creditors were briefed a couple months ago about Parkers first advance, and they agreed it wasn't in the best interest of DL. Another fact is that if USAir were to win the bid, we would have to stay in BK another 12-18 months(re-doing contracts with suppliers etc), delaying payment again to those same creditors. And, to top it off, our CFO just announced he will bring us out of BK sooner, which isn't something Parker wants (see above). Money talks.... Stupid plans do too.

Bye Bye--General Lee

Unfortunately, DL has weakened it's domestic network to achieve their transition to the largest transatlantic carrier. As long as CAL and AMR can continue to profit, they more than likely will not challenge DL with a price war just yet. If things get tight for the TransAtlantic dollar, DL could be put in a squeeze between CAL/AMR that would certainly put more of a hurt'n on DL than either of those carriers. The exit financiers have their finger on the pulse of many things you are I are not aware of as yet. Since they will need to be paid back through profits generated by Grinstein's plan, they will look very carefully at where DL will be in 3-5 years. If they are not happy with his domestic network feed to the international hubs, this will play a determining factor whether his plans will be shelved.

I'm a bigger fan of a UAL bid, and the coveted synergy by DL of the gates in London. However, the problem there is leadership. Doug is head and shoulders above the present UAL or DL contingent, and this also will weigh heavily on any decision.

imp: ​

 

[XBOEINGDRVR]

I agree general

 

[pgcfii2002]

I see SLC getting chopped to bits if this merger goes through.

It would be nice to see DAL build up LAX, mostly with INT'L routes, they certainly have the space at T5.

 

[80for80]

You may be right, but dumb mergers (with hubs close by, wrong fleet types etc) will not work. USAir and AWA worked because there was NO hub overlap (only a few flights conflicted, like PHL--LAS, and some other hub to spoke cities) and their fleets were close. That is not the case with DL. Not even close. No synergies at all. And, they haven't even integrated their own people on the first merger yet. Dumb mergers will never work.

Bye Bye--General Lee

Which is the reason this merger WILL go through. The General had better get used to saying "Cactus" on the radio!

 

[Scope out RJ's]

Which is the reason this merger WILL go through. The General had better get used to saying "Cactus" on the radio!

The merger may or may not go through! One thing's for certain, you will be on the outside looking in, and will always be a doosh bag!

 

[General Lee]

Unfortunately, DL has weakened it's domestic network to achieve their transition to the largest transatlantic carrier. As long as CAL and AMR can continue to profit, they more than likely will not challenge DL with a price war just yet. If things get tight for the TransAtlantic dollar, DL could be put in a squeeze between CAL/AMR that would certainly put more of a hurt'n on DL than either of those carriers. The exit financiers have their finger on the pulse of many things you are I are not aware of as yet. Since they will need to be paid back through profits generated by Grinstein's plan, they will look very carefully at where DL will be in 3-5 years. If they are not happy with his domestic network feed to the international hubs, this will play a determining factor whether his plans will be shelved.

I'm a bigger fan of a UAL bid, and the coveted synergy by DL of the gates in London. However, the problem there is leadership. Doug is head and shoulders above the present UAL or DL contingent, and this also will weigh heavily on any decision.

imp: ​

I disagree of course. Our new guy Whitehurst is just as smart and just and young and dymamic as Parker. He is backed up by a proven genius in Hauenstein, a guy who did wonders for CAL and Alitalia. Even Ed bastian, our CFO, seems to be doing a good job on the money side. And, our domestic feed is just fine. We have shed the fleet of gas guzzling 732s, old 733s, and still have good numbers of medium and long haul aircraft. We are shifting planes around, which we did not do during the Leo Mullin administration, which led us to huge losses. We had Song 757s doing routes that could not sustain a 757, just because we had that route as a Song route. It was a bad idea, and our new guys now put the correct sized airplane on the route (some of those old 757 routes now have MD88s, which fits). We have a domestic transcon service that beats everyone, since we have live TV (or dish network in reality) combined with a first class. Every seat has a live TV, and our best customers also get first class service. Does anyone else do that? Live TV (and many other options like games, movies, radio) plus large seats? United's PS service on those 757s have nicer seats, but they hand out DVD players with movies. Jetblue has nice service with Live TV, but not first class service. We are doing that service on all of our transcon 757s, and also some 738s. Anything over 1700nm will have it eventually. We added new uniforms for the stews, and new attitudes are coming. We are a full service airline, and we have added new interiors and new bathrooms to many of our planes. To say we are lacking on the domestic front is just wrong. Yes, we have too many RJs, but they (mostly 50 seaters) will be phased out, and we have orders already for 737-700s that have not been publicized yet. A few big announcements will come out after we exit BK.

You also focused on our transatlantic ops as a possible squeeze point, but we also do very well to South America (a great connection point in ATL compared to the 3rd World MIA airport) and Central America. (our most profitable route is to Managua from ATL) We are more well rounded than you give us credit for.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

Which is the reason this merger WILL go through. The General had better get used to saying "Cactus" on the radio!

Ummmmmmm riiiiiiiiiiight. United and USAir didn't go through for overlap problems in ONE AREA---Washington, DC. We have overlap problems with USAIR in 3 areas----NYC Shuttle and NE(BOS and LGA), ATL and CLT, and the Western Triangle of LAS, PHX, and SLC. Nope.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

I see SLC getting chopped to bits if this merger goes through.

It would be nice to see DAL build up LAX, mostly with INT'L routes, they certainly have the space at T5.

Too bad the Mormon Church (who likes Delta and the reach of the airline to bring in it's members from all over the world---something a LCC could not bring to SLC) and Orin Hatch (the powerful UT Senator) would NOT approve. Nope. They would be all over that objecting all the way.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[lowecur]

I disagree of course. Our new guy Whitehurst is just as smart and just and young and dymamic as Parker. He is backed up by a proven genius in Hauenstein, a guy who did wonders for CAL and Alitalia. Even Ed bastian, our CFO, seems to be doing a good job on the money side. And, our domestic feed is just fine.

Bye Bye--General Lee

I listened to this tap dance routine of yours before BK, and it happened just like I said it would.

Let's just say we agree to disagree. If Grinstein and his mgt team can convince creditors that their plan is better than any proposals made by either US Airways or UAL, then he and his team are much better than I give them credit for and I will bow to your propaganda.

imp:​

 

[johnsonrod]

I listened to this tap dance routine of yours before BK, and it happened just like I said it would.

Let's just say we agree to disagree. If Grinstein and his mgt team can convince creditors that their plan is better than any proposals made by either US Airways or UAL, then he and his team are much better than I give them credit for and I will bow to your propaganda.

imp:​

Have you looked at the Delta and USAirways route maps? They completely overlap domestically and USAirways brings no new lucrative international routes to the table - at least UAL would bring Asian routes. Somehow I doubt the DOJ would be so agreeable. Certainly the politicians from Georgia will also exert as much pressure as possible to thwart this hostile takeover.

 

[800Dog]

Too bad the Mormon Church (who likes Delta and the reach of the airline to bring in it's members from all over the world---something a LCC could not bring to SLC) and Orin Hatch (the powerful UT Senator) would NOT approve. Nope. They would be all over that objecting all the way.

Bye Bye--General Lee

General,
Often I agree with you but, not in this case. The Mormon church rids SLC of Delta and brings in Jetblue who is run by whom? A Mormon? Stick to the big picture my friend. Terrible route integration, fleet integration and bigger and better things ahead for Delta.

 

[lowecur]

You seem pretty confident. I'm not totally confident, just pragmatically optimistic. Have you looked at the Delta and USAirways route maps? The overlap will not present a problem with the DOJ provided they agree to a large reduction of flts and gates at some of their major markets. One thing that will be required is the continuace of flts from many of the smaller markets. Frequency in these markets will be replaced with 70-100 seat a/c. I believe any new entity involving US Air/DL will be forced to carve out a reduction of between 20 to 25% domestically, not the 13% they are talking about. The Shuttles will probably be sold to AMR or UAL. I doubt Jetblue could afford to get involved in the bidding. They completely overlap domestically and USAirways brings no new lucrative international routes to the table - at least UAL would bring Asian routes. I think Doug has designs on Asia through the DL LAX gates. Somehow I doubt the DOJ would be so agreeable. That statement only makes sense if the new entity created some kind of a monopolistic stranglehold on the East Coast. It would never happen with the required reductions and the certain fill in from the LCC's. Remember, this is about synergy savings, not creating a monster monopoly. Certainly the politicians from Georgia will also exert as much pressure as possible to thwart this hostile takeover. Of course they would, but that pressure could be eased with a move of headquarters to ATL.

I still like a UAL better, but this deal is far from being flushed.

imp:​

 

[General Lee]

General,
Often I agree with you but, not in this case. The Mormon church rids SLC of Delta and brings in Jetblue who is run by whom? A Mormon? Stick to the big picture my friend. Terrible route integration, fleet integration and bigger and better things ahead for Delta.

Jetblue might be able to bring the NE and maybe LGB to SLC, but that would be about it. Domestic routes are great, but a Church that size wants more. You probably agree now. It probably won't happen anyway, so relax.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

I still like a UAL better, but this deal is far from being flushed.

imp:​

Wow, the DOJ would love it if DL and USAir dropped a lot of routes and stations to comply with monopoly protections, but any loss of jobs would not be taken well by any elected representatives. Small town US will lose service (25 cities in the USAtoday apparently would lose some sort of service), and that won't float. UAL and USAir had a problem with one area---Washington, D.C. We and USAir have 3 areas of contention---West--LAS/PHX/SLC, NE-BOS/LGA/DCA, and SE--ATL/CLT. Nah.........Add to that our fleets are different, and their own integration with their current merger isn't going well (notice the picketing), and I would say it is listing without gas into open waters.....


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[GuppyWN]

If this deal were to go through you would have how many A/C types?

777, 767, 757, 737 - 300/800, MD 88/90, A319, A320, A321

Gup

 

[737 Pylt]

If this deal were to go through you would have how many A/C types?

Gup

Too many Gup.....Too many. Just another reason to add to the "this not happening list." DL worked too hard ridding itself of aircraft fleets, including, older 727, L-1011, 737-300, MD-11.

737

 

[General Lee]

If this deal were to go through you would have how many A/C types?

777, 767, 757, 737 - 300/800, MD 88/90, A319, A320, A321

Gup

You forgot the E190, which they start getting soon at mainline. Yeah, sounds like a lot of "synergies"---according to Parker.....


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[LandGreen]

The only reason why Parker bid for Delta is that he sees the handwriting on the wall with inevitable consolidation. He does not want to be without a dance partner once the music starts. If DL and NWA/and or CAL hook up, UAL hooks up with the remainder, then U is left on its own without international feed while the domestic market continues to shred yields to the LCC's. Parker is smart....and desperate!

 

[G4G5]

"I disagree of course. Our new guy Whitehurst is just as smart and just and young and dymamic as Parker. He is backed up by a proven genius in Hauenstein, a guy who did wonders for CAL and Alitalia. Even Ed bastian, our CFO, seems to be doing a good job on the money side. And, our domestic feed is just fine."

You keep siting these two clowns as the next coming of Herb or Gordon. Tell me what Alitalia has done? They are bar none the worst major in Europe. So bad in fact that once Air France and KLM got a look at the books the RAN away from any potential merger deal. So tell me again how this guy saved Alitalia? Even the Italinian President, Silvio Berlusconi, has come out publicly looking for a merger partner for Alitalia.

How many different guys are we going to credit for CAL's turn around, let me sit you down. It was Bethune that gets the credit. Not your boy or Barger at JetBlue or anyone else who has left CAL over the past few years. Read the book. Bethune gets the credit, not the second tier executive chiefs or parking lot attendants that happen to have CAL on their resume.

Kelley and Kellner have been great, but the system was in place prior to their arrival. It's much eaiser to put a manager in place to run a good team, then it is to replace the manger and rebuild a bad team.

 

[tomgoodman]

US Air/DAL fleet reduction?

If this deal were to go through you would have how many A/C types?

777, 767, 757, 737 - 300/800, MD 88/90, A319, A320, A321

Gup

They would probably get rid of some A/C types, as evidenced by the following statement from US Air's FAQ document sent to their employees:

"We anticipate cutting systemwide capacity by about 9-10 percent, which translates to about an 11 percent reduction of the combined fleet."

This would, of course, lead to the mother of all seniority fights. :angryfire

 

[General Lee]

"I disagree of course. Our new guy Whitehurst is just as smart and just and young and dymamic as Parker. He is backed up by a proven genius in Hauenstein, a guy who did wonders for CAL and Alitalia. Even Ed bastian, our CFO, seems to be doing a good job on the money side. And, our domestic feed is just fine."

You keep siting these two clowns as the next coming of Herb or Gordon. Tell me what Alitalia has done? They are bar none the worst major in Europe. So bad in fact that once Air France and KLM got a look at the books the RAN away from any potential merger deal. So tell me again how this guy saved Alitalia? Even the Italinian President, Silvio Berlusconi, has come out publicly looking for a merger partner for Alitalia.

How many different guys are we going to credit for CAL's turn around, let me sit you down. It was Bethune that gets the credit. Not your boy or Barger at JetBlue or anyone else who has left CAL over the past few years. Read the book. Bethune gets the credit, not the second tier executive chiefs or parking lot attendants that happen to have CAL on their resume.

Kelley and Kellner have been great, but the system was in place prior to their arrival. It's much eaiser to put a manager in place to run a good team, then it is to replace the manger and rebuild a bad team.

Hauenstein turned Alitalia around. He did the same for CAL after their BKs. He has turned our revenue management from being 15% lower than our nearest competitor, to within 5% in 6 months. (hard to steer the ship back quickly, but he did a great job, and we are on par today). Whitehurst is actually a people person, and has better leadership skills. We haven't had that in awhile. You may not approve or even know them, but they are doing wonders here. Gordon Bethune is known for his great leadership, but now he is incharge of Aloha. Can he make a large difference? He is there for retirement.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

They would probably get rid of some A/C types, as evidenced by the following statement from US Air's FAQ document sent to their employees:

"We anticipate cutting systemwide capacity by about 9-10 percent, which translates to about an 11 percent reduction of the combined fleet."

This would, of course, lead to the mother of all seniority fights. :angryfire

Tom,

You didn't hear the webcast. He was talking about 50 seat RJs. Since you left DL we are SHORT on mainline aircraft, and are getting more soon, like the 15 ex TWA 757ERs.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[G4G5]

Hauenstein turned Alitalia around. He did the same for CAL after their BKs. He has turned our revenue management from being 15% lower than our nearest competitor, to within 5% in 6 months. (hard to steer the ship back quickly, but he did a great job, and we are on par today). Whitehurst is actually a people person, and has better leadership skills. We haven't had that in awhile. You may not approve or even know them, but they are doing wonders here. Gordon Bethune is known for his great leadership, but now he is incharge of Aloha. Can he make a large difference? He is there for retirement.

Bye Bye--General Lee

Getting more revenue out of a seat is great. But once again tell me how he turned them around. They NEVER MADE A PROFIT, the entire time he was there, all they did was continue to lose 100's of millions.

http://www.groundsupportmagazine.com/article/article.jsp?id=1466&siteSection=1

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/low/business/4535278.stm

Alitalia was in such bad shape during his tenure 2003-2005 that KLM/Air france ran away from a proposed merger once they got a hold of Alatilia's books.