Jetblue headed to ORD?

[JP4user]

Respect. Is that what you call what Tilton and his band of thieves did to your employee group?

Correction..the United employee group. Tilton is just as much of a scum sucking dirt bag as Lorenzo, Orenstein, Steenland etc. The difference is the United pilots were to scared to do anything about it and didn't realize those guys with the $2,000 suits were bending them over. Twice.

Did that answer your question? If not I'll make it simple: I don't fly a BBJ for Glen or heaven forbid have to use or ever used a United call sign.

 

[Zipperhead]

One and a half pages and the bashing begins....nice

 

[MRYFLYER]

This is probably the only way they get a slew of gates after 10/31/08. Antitrust action by the DOJ may require UAL to divest itself of some ORD gates/slots to get approval on any merger.

imp:

Hmmmm. What about double AA divesting itself of slots and gates? Would the DOJ not also come looking at their piece of the pie since you have the rumors and the innuendo on this one tell us more.

I would think B6 would be well served to make what they are doing currently work before the DOJ would just carve up ORD and give them something. In fact I suppose there are more than one carrier out there that would like a piece of the ORD pie and B6 does not have the pockets to afford what the others would be willing to give. As for a midwest hub for B6 they should do what the other carriers have done, EARN it. Go start a hub in a midwest city with your own sweat and labor and stop thinking everyone is going to give you something. I bet you are one of those kids that participated in a soccer or little league that did not keep score. Can't have any losers in life no can we.

 

[Dizel8]

Can't have any losers in life no can we.

I guess that was why AA was so mad about the LGB issue!

But hey, while you are here, why don't you tell me how UAL EARNED the gates at ORD?

 

[lowecur]

Hmmmm. What about double AA divesting itself of slots and gates? Would the DOJ not also come looking at their piece of the pie since you have the rumors and the innuendo on this one tell us more. OK.

I would think B6 would be well served to make what they are doing currently work before the DOJ would just carve up ORD and give them something. I don't think the DOJ is in the business of handing out gates to specific airlines, but they are in the business of turning some screws if UAL wants the merger bad enough. In fact I suppose there are more than one carrier out there that would like a piece of the ORD pie and B6 does not have the pockets to afford what the others would be willing to give. When a gate is divested it goes back to O'Hare, and then they decide who gets it and at the going rate. There is no lottery on gates. Those decisions are objectively made by the airport authority. Could the airport authority choose another carrier? Sure, but my guess is Jetblue has a better shot than most on any future gates at ORD. As for a midwest hub for B6 they should do what the other carriers have done, EARN it. Go start a hub in a midwest city with your own sweat and labor and stop thinking everyone is going to give you something. That would be great, but you have legacy carriers that dominate these hubs that have hidden behind the Federal BK Laws. If attrition had been left to take it's course, survival of the fittest would have taken care of all that. So now you complain that Jetblue could be in line to possibly take advantage of another arm of gov't that may be a backdoor into ORD. It's just business MRYFLYER, it's not personal. I bet you are one of those kids that participated in a soccer or little league that did not keep score. Can't have any losers in life now can we.

Sure we can, just not sore losers.


imp:

 

[FlyinCane]

Friend in Forest Hills confirmed both JFK-ORD and LGB-ORD service with A320s. Was supposed to start 10/25, but that date has been pushed back.

 

[G4G5]

I think that this is a bad bad bad idea. There has to be a better place to tie up an A320 then on the ground in ORD. I can remember spending more time on penalty box waiting for departure then it took to fly the trip. If they are seriously considering this then they are really starving for new routes to put their A320's on.

I would have to believe that an Island, vacation destination out of JFK would have better yeilds then spending all your profits on deicing fluid in the winter.

 

[JP4user]

That would be great, but you have legacy carriers that dominate these hubs that have hidden behind the Federal BK Laws. If attrition had been left to take it's course, survival of the fittest would have taken care of all that. So now you complain that Jetblue could be in line to possibly take advantage of another arm of gov't that may be a backdoor into ORD.

I don't think 32LT10 a.k.a "MRYFLYER" is going to like this very accurate answer.

 

[lowecur]

Friend in Forest Hills confirmed both JFK-ORD and LGB-ORD service with A320s. Was supposed to start 10/25, but that date has been pushed back.

That's interesting. Have to wait and see if an announcement is today or a few weeks away.

imp:

 

[MRYFLYER]

Sure we can, just not sore losers.


imp:

If you have an issue with the BK process then perhaps you should work at the congessional level to make a change. Also, why not lobby ATL to GIVE you gates from the DL stash or pehaps DTW or MSP to give you NWA gates? On the ATL issue we know you had to pull out so perhaps if the DOJ gives you a hub you could make it work. At the same time how would B6 feel if the DOJ said you had too big of a prescence at JFK and you now had to GIVE gates to another carrier?

In the long run I hope you guys do come to ORD, just not at the expense of gates to UAL. The combination of AA and UAL have been very good at eliminating carriers at ORD. B6 will just be another Flyi when it is all said and done at ORD.

 

[MRYFLYER]

I guess that was why AA was so mad about the LGB issue!

But hey, while you are here, why don't you tell me how UAL EARNED the gates at ORD?

UAL has earned the gates/ slots at ORD with over 75 years of airline ops and by building facilities that meet our needs. It was not B6 that has built the terminals, infrastructure or various other hub neccessities. For the DOJ to steal them from another operator is just wrong.

As for ORD JFK and ORD LGB the rumored routes. No worries. I don't see those as being terribly successful. Also, it is going to be interesting for the B6 passengers to be left out in the cold when the B6 flight cancels to JFK and they learn they can not ride AA or UAL's hourly service to either EWR or LGA with their B6 ticket. With delays and flow at ORD it will happen quite often and it will be a wakeup call to those with B6 tickets. One thing AA and UAL have is the ability to juggle slot times when the weather goes down. With only 8 slots that will not be easy for B6.

 

[lowecur]

If you have an issue with the BK process then perhaps you should work at the congessional level to make a change. Also, why not lobby ATL to GIVE you gates from the DL stash or pehaps DTW or MSP to give you NWA gates? On the ATL issue we know you had to pull out so perhaps if the DOJ gives you a hub you could make it work. At the same time how would B6 feel if the DOJ said you had too big of a prescence at JFK and you now had to GIVE gates to another carrier?

In the long run I hope you guys do come to ORD, just not at the expense of gates to UAL. The combination of AA and UAL have been very good at eliminating carriers at ORD. B6 will just be another Flyi when it is all said and done at ORD.

Just for the record.....I'm an Insurance Agent.

imp:

 

[lowecur]

As for ORD JFK and ORD LGB the rumored routes. No worries. I don't see those as being terribly successful.

Actually it's quite smart. Splitting NYC and the City of Angels into 4 slots each allows Jetblue to spread the risk, thus forcing the competition to lower both routes if they want to put a hurting on B6.....very expensive. If the 320 is too big, they can always go to the 190.

imp:

 

[EWR_FO]

Read recently where CAL was the one losing their shirt in EWR. Analyst mentioned that CAL over-reacted on the Florida routes and it's cost them $25M in 4th Q of 2005. Jetblue's presence there is strictly to accomodate NJ travelers that had been driving to JFK. He mentioned Jetblue is breaking even on the routes.

imp:

LC,

Just out of curiosity, where did you read that? Not doubting you, but route profitability info always seems to be a bigger secret than the formula for Coca-Cola. I don't know how they can be "losing their shirt" when they are flying the 757-300 on many of those routes, I believe it has the lowest CASM of any airplane flying.

 

[lowecur]

LC,

Just out of curiosity, where did you read that? Not doubting you, but route profitability info always seems to be a bigger secret than the formula for Coca-Cola. I don't know how they can be "losing their shirt" when they are flying the 757-300 on many of those routes, I believe it has the lowest CASM of any airplane flying.

I found the info on Planebusiness where Holly posts comments from some of the analysts:

Interesting notes from Gary Chase at Lehmans:

In his note on Continental's results for the quarter, he says flatly that JetBlue's entry into Newark has "had a signficant impact on Continental's Newark hub."

Chase estimates that operating profit to six Florida markets (the JetBlue markets and Miami) declined by $23.65 million in the fourth quarter of 2005. Orlando and Ft. Lauderdale led the pack in terms of declines.

As Chase points out, because Continental's hubs in Houston and Cleveland have shown notable improvements -- in particular Houston -- this has allowed Continental to compete with JetBlue, and other competitors, pretty aggressively.

As to the issue of how well JetBlue is doing or not doing on the new routes, Chase contends that despite Continental's aggressive response, JetBlue posted "minimal" losses on its Florida routes out of Newark, with Ft. Lauderdale being the main laggard. Translation? For a new entry market, JetBlue is doing pretty well out of Newark



imp:

 

[roadrunnerblue]

I think that this is a bad bad bad idea. There has to be a better place to tie up an A320 then on the ground in ORD. I can remember spending more time on penalty box waiting for departure then it took to fly the trip. If they are seriously considering this then they are really starving for new routes to put their A320's on.

I would have to believe that an Island, vacation destination out of JFK would have better yeilds then spending all your profits on deicing fluid in the winter.

Or an island destination (also Mexican Riviera) out of LAX would do better.

 

[MRYFLYER]

Just for the record.....I'm an Insurance Agent.

imp:

Funny, I had you taged as a Proctologist.

 

[EWR_FO]

In his note on Continental's results for the quarter, he says flatly that JetBlue's entry into Newark has "had a signficant impact on Continental's Newark hub."

Chase estimates that operating profit to six Florida markets (the JetBlue markets and Miami) declined by $23.65 million in the fourth quarter of 2005. Orlando and Ft. Lauderdale led the pack in terms of declines.

As Chase points out, because Continental's hubs in Houston and Cleveland have shown notable improvements -- in particular Houston -- this has allowed Continental to compete with JetBlue, and other competitors, pretty aggressively.

As to the issue of how well JetBlue is doing or not doing on the new routes, Chase contends that despite Continental's aggressive response, JetBlue posted "minimal" losses on its Florida routes out of Newark, with Ft. Lauderdale being the main laggard. Translation? For a new entry market, JetBlue is doing pretty well out of Newark

That is interesting. I flew with a CP yesterday and specifically asked about the whole EWR-FL situation. He told me that every pax to board a B6 flight in EWR is counted. I assume they can figure out from these numbers how they are stacking up, but that is just my opinion (I could be way off base).

I really try to avoid the "my team is better than your team" arguments, but the impression I got from my conversation was that CAL is getting the results they are looking for, within the cost range they projected. Whether this is a good move, only time will tell.

I am by no means an analyst, but with only ten flights a day, total, from EWR-FL it's hard to see where a $23 million dollar impact comes from over a 90 day period.

 

[lowecur]

Funny, I had you taged as a Proctologist.

Actually, I'm just the opposite........an Analcyst.

imp:

 

[lowecur]

That is interesting. I flew with a CP yesterday and specifically asked about the whole EWR-FL situation. He told me that every pax to board a B6 flight in EWR is counted. I assume they can figure out from these numbers how they are stacking up, but that is just my opinion (I could be way off base).

I really try to avoid the "my team is better than your team" arguments, but the impression I got from my conversation was that CAL is getting the results they are looking for, within the cost range they projected. Whether this is a good move, only time will tell.

I am by no means an analyst, but with only ten flights a day, total, from EWR-FL it's hard to see where a $23 million dollar impact comes from over a 90 day period.

I think B6 wants to keep a toe in the water at EWR, but by no means do they plan a major expansion. After a year or two, both parties generally learn to live together once each determines they other represents no major threat.

Can't blame CAL for marking their territory, and I only see B6 moving out if mgt can't turn the expense side of the P&L in the next 6 to 8 months. B6 has lowered guidance to a -1% or +1% operating profit for the 3rd Q. This is below analysts expections and previous guidance (due to slowing economy and UK terrorist threat with increased security measures). They also will show a gain of $6M on (2) 320 sales in Sept and an "immaterial loss" in the 4th Q for the sale of the remaining (3) 320s. I look for them to sell some more old 320s in 07 as the economy continues it's slowdown. Oil prices should stick somewhere in the $50-60 range it this happens, and that should help all the carriers off-set the loss of revenue.

imp: