Will it be US/AA or AA/B6/AK?

[Mea25000]

AA's management team really wants AS and are selling it as part of their great plan moving forward to the major creditors. I don't think there is anyway they can pull it off but they sure must feel they can. Either way the whole thing is horrific to think about from the AS side.

SWA had it's big chance to buy AS and thought the valuation at 2.1B was to much they are not going to come back 2 years later and pay 2.8B minimum. Plus their hands are full with AirTran.

 

[redflyer65]

Parker will win this one. Expect US-AMR.

Southwest and others will pick up some spin off, gates, cities, etc.

 

[Otto77]

I'd like to then see SWA make a play for B6 to gain that much needed NYC presence. I doubt they would sit idle and get shut out of the biggest market in the world.

 

[redflyer65]

That would be a big move. Meshing a 737 operation with a Airbus operation would be interesting.

 

[General Lee]

I'd like to then see SWA make a play for B6 to gain that much needed NYC presence. I doubt they would sit idle and get shut out of the biggest market in the world.

Looks like DL has already made a big play for the NYC market, with the USAir slot swap, a new terminal there in LGA, and a new $1.2 billion terminal at JFK. But, SWA does own Islip! You gotta love Ronkonkama.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[redflyer65]

General,

I know you fly ATL to points beyond, but if your ever flying over Long Island take a look.

Long Island Population = 2.8 Million people

That's 3/4 of the population of the Atlanta region! We fly alot of Long Islanders across the country from a little airport known as ISP.

I do think Delta will stand to gain more with the resolution of the AA bankruptcy. Whatever it ultimately is.

 

[ALGFLYR]

I think US Airways is more likely. Alaska and jetBlue just wouldn't give American the critical mass to re-gain the status of the largest airline. US Airways will add more aircraft and larger guage airframes at that...

The term sheet provided to the APA will allow unrestricted code-share with Alaska with the exception of Hawaii flying. That will allow American to capture a lot of the benefits from Alaska without actually merging. And while jetBlue has a strong presence in the Northeast with its JFK operations, US Airways stronger Northeast and East coast presence seems to work better for American. Plus the addition of a Southeast hub in CLT will add flexability to the American network.

US Airways also brings a lot of orders for Widebody aircraft in the A-330 and A-350's. That is a nice compliment to the orders for the 777 and 787 orders that American has.

 

[Otto77]

That would be a big move. Meshing a 737 operation with a Airbus operation would be interesting.

Yes it would. I could see it being beneficial. As for 190s I'm sure they would get dumped. Planes types never seem to get in the way of wall st mergers. The assets are more valuable ( JFK , caribbean etc)

 

[igneousy2]

Realizing that there is a scenario floating out there for just about every airline in existence to either buy or be bought by Alaska...

AA scenario goes something like this...

AA has about 230 MD80's remaining...Alaska has about 130 actual and about another 40 or so 737-NG's in the pipe or on option. Combined with the deliveries of 737-800's AA has coming, and the fact that you are replacing a 140 pax jets with 156-170 pax jets, they are probably pretty close in ASM's.

Horizon would be merged into Eagle and airplanes packed up and shipped South and East...probably to Miami to re-enforce AMR's bread and butter Miami Hub.

Seattle would be turned into a "focus city" in AMR speak and except for a few flights down to the bay area, LA basin, and ANC everybody would be rerouted over DFW and ORD.

All of Alaskas airplanes would be integrated into AA's route network. All of the point to point Hawaii that Alaska has built up would be shuttered. AA would park all of the AA MD80's immediately.

APA will try to staple-us, because somehow they will have figured out how to convince themselves that it was Alaska that actually needed saving...and a job at American is better than a no job on the street.

At the end of this, AA will have the most fuel efficient narrow-body fleet of the large legacies and with the new wide-body deliveries in pretty good fleet shape overall.

There will be years of fighting and arbitration and litigation...and in the end none of it would have mattered to me because I am going to end up on the bottom of any combined seniority list no matter how it is combined. I can only hope the wide body fences aren't too high.

The only saving grace of this whole scenario is being able to watch some of the Arctic Eagles doing turns out of LGA. <---- now that would be funny.

 

[Flyby1206]

Horizon would be merged into Eagle and airplanes packed up and shipped South and East...probably to Miami to re-enforce AMR's bread and butter Miami Hub.

Seattle would be turned into a "focus city" in AMR speak and except for a few flights down to the bay area, LA basin, and ANC everybody would be rerouted over DFW and ORD.

All of Alaskas airplanes would be integrated into AA's route network. All of the point to point Hawaii that Alaska has built up would be shuttered. AA would park all of the AA MD80's immediately.

Sadly, that is AA's M.O. Buying competition and shutting down their operations. If AA buys AS then you might as well pack up and move to DFW.