Why this industry will never be the same

[StaySeated]

I read a number of posts of how people believe the good ole days will return and that this is just another down turn in the cycle. A recent article in the the October issue of Aviation International News highlights the fundamental shift over the last ten years.

1995

Regional Jets

Routes 180

Fleet Total 36

2005

Regional Jets

Routes 2,888

Fleet Total 1,358

The routes increased by 1,504% and the fleet increased by 3,600%!! I knew it was bad as I noticed RON equipment change in smaller cities from 737's and -9's to RJs over the years but I had no idea the transition was so huge. If you think it is going to get better, Embraer states in the same article that 7950 30-120 seat jets will be purchased in the next 20 years.

Before I retire, if I am fortunate enough to still be employed and remain healthy (where is my guiness?), I believe the industry will look quite different that it does today. "Majors" will fly primarily internationally with widebodies, LCC's will grow with some narrowbodies but mostly RJ's, and regionals will make up the majority of the growth with more RJ's.

I really don't have a point here, I just felt compelled to post after I read some other posts. Cheers.

 

[Smarta$$]

I read a number of posts of how people believe the good ole days will return and that this is just another down turn in the cycle. A recent article in the the October issue of Aviation International News highlights the fundamental shift over the last ten years.

1995

Regional Jets

Routes 180

Fleet Total 36

2005

Regional Jets

Routes 2,888

Fleet Total 1,358

The routes increased by 1,504% and the fleet increased by 3,600%!! I knew it was bad as I noticed RON equipment change in smaller cities from 737's and -9's to RJs over the years but I had no idea the transition was so huge. If you think it is going to get better, Embraer states in the same article that 7950 30-120 seat jets will be purchased in the next 20 years.

Before I retire, if I am fortunate enough to still be employed and remain healthy (where is my guiness?), I believe the industry will look quite different that it does today. "Majors" will fly primarily internationally with widebodies, LCC's will grow with some narrowbodies but mostly RJ's, and regionals will make up the majority of the growth with more RJ's.

I really don't have a point here, I just felt compelled to post after I read some other posts. Cheers.

It doesnt have to be this way. I hope that there is a shift in the other direction. Loads have been so high that there will need to be bigger equiptment on most routes. Now if mainlines will quite giving there flying away. If it were up to me all jets would be mainline. I hope the current line in the sand is in fact the line in the sand. Not just size of RJ but also the the current number of the scoped out.

I hope loads and airspace conjestion will push carriers to larger aircraft. I am optimistic that this will be the trend. Its is not the RJ that is the problem, it is who is going to fly them.

 

[KeroseneSnorter]

The pay will eventually come back.........however I do not think that any of the current ATP's in the country will see it before we retire. Our kids may make a good living at it.

I knew we had problems when the number of RJ's outnumbered the number of Mainline airplanes at my old airline.

 

[Smarta$$]

The pay will eventually come back.........however I do not think that any of the current ATP's in the country will see it before we retire. Our kids may make a good living at it.

I knew we had problems when the number of RJ's outnumbered the number of Mainline airplanes at my old airline....by almost 2 to 1.

I hope the pay will come back. One of many factors that got pay as high as it became was pilots holding the line during times of good profits. I hope in this next time of economic prosperity that we gane back what was lost!

I hope we have all learned alot about what not to do in the bad times because they certainly will come again.

 

[KeroseneSnorter]

I hope the pay will come back. One of many factors that got pay as high as it became was pilots holding the line during times of good profits. I hope in this next time of economic prosperity that we gane back what was lost!

I hope we have all learned alot about what not to do in the bad times because they certainly will come again.

We have been arguing on the other thread, but I agree with you here. Hopefully the masses have learned what not to do.

In the early days the arguments over the Rj's made this board look tame by comparison. Most of us saw it coming and tried to stop it. However mgmt. too learned from their past mistakes and we now have a whole horde of CEO's that base their mgmt. styles on Lorenzo and Icaan (sp?)

I fear we (our generation) saw our last good contract in the late 90's though. Only three left in the U.S. that can be called good.....UPS, FED-Ex, and SWA....and considering that SWA's contract and work rule used to be the joke of the industry in the mid 90's....that tells us how far we have fallen.

 

[DoubtingThomas]

The pilot profession is dead...

Shoot.. by the time our kids grow up, air travel will be completely automated, and pilots will be unnecessary.

It's all a matter of making the public comfortable, by degrees, of automated transport. Example: elevators used to have operators. Not anymore. Automated trains... taking hold quickly.

Think this sound silly?

Well so did people flying through the air at .78 MACH in a jet-engined aluminum tube 75 years ago.

Progress moves quickly! Life is grand!!

Don't think so? Well don't underestimate the ambition and power of our engineering technology. Remember the military is always 25 years (at least) ahead of the civilian tech that you and I fly around. (predator drones anyone)

Last, don't underestimate the desire of the capitalist man to replace you with a robot that will do your job faster and cheaper... and if you've been to the airport, than you've witnessed the advent of the KIOSK!!!

Pay will only go Down, DOwn, DOWn, DOWN!

SO you as a person had better enjoy your 18 days off and diversify your personal portfolio/area of expertise. My recommendation: Open a college book store... those make lots of cash.

T-Bone.

 

[Speedtape]

Prediction:

When Delta emerges from Bankruptcy in mid 2007, they will place the largest order for Mainline jets that has ever been ordered! The same thing happened at Continental in the 80's after bankruptcy. According to the Pilot working agreement, at the beginning of 2007, the then current inventory of mainline planes will be the base number that will determine any future additions to currently allowed 70-76 seat RJs. When that base number of mainline planes is determined at the beginning of 2007, every additional mainline plane added permits 3 additional 70-76 aircraft to be added on a 3 for one ratio. There will be plenty of jobs and upward movement for everyone.

According to a recent news report, Delta is already in talks with Bombardier for the largest order of CR9's that has ever been ordered. These planes will be matched with the permitted ratio of mainline planes. Recalled furloughees may be Captains within a couple of years. Not only are loads high, the government is forecasting 100% growth in traffic within the next 10 years! This will require increase capacity in the entire industry.

 

[pilotyip]

Things will never be the same again? I don’t get it, they have never been the same. The industry has been in a constant state of flux since the 30’s, when the DC-3 revolutionized the airline industry, the 40’s when 4 Eng. airplanes flew non-stop, the 50’s with the introduction of jets, to the 60’s with wide bodies, to 70‘s with de-reg, to the 80’s with the spoke and hub, to the 90's with the RJ, to 00’s with the LLC growth. The things that are the same are management failures, starvation wages for new hires, the seniority system, lay off, chasing jobs at the next airline, and dead pilots. Read Ernest. Gann’s " Fate is the Hunter"

 

[Gobi Gred]

I completely disagree with anyone who says that pilotless airliners are coming anytime soon. Eventually maybe, but definately not in my lifetime and probably not in my kids. When I can read the newspaper, take a nap and watch a movie all while being single pilot with a Fed in the jumpseat then maybe I'll worry about being replaced by a microchip. Even then someone will have to be there to do a reboot when the computer locks up.

 

[YourPilotFriend]

I completely disagree with anyone who says that pilotless airliners are coming anytime soon. Eventually maybe, but definately not in my lifetime and probably not in my kids. When I can read the newspaper, take a nap and watch a movie all while being single pilot with a Fed in the jumpseat then maybe I'll worry about being replaced by a microchip. Even then someone will have to be there to do a reboot when the computer locks up.

The current fleet is too expensive to replace, plus the system would colapse if one airline was operating pilotless. Single pilot however, is probably likely in the next 25 years.