Who's Taking DEN?

[learherkjay]

As a guy outside looking in (hopefully "in" in a year and a half), and a Texan married to a Colorado girl, I wanted to get a take on who everyone sees as the major player at DEN in the near future and the long term? Who will fill the void for UAL - CAL? SWA? F9? Anybody out there have any ideas or "good" information? Thanks

 

[rightrudder]

Perhaps you should wait until the corpse is cold.

 

[learherkjay]

Okay, not trying to slam UAL; and not trying to write them off as dead - BUT - are they going to make DEN a priority are does anybody see someone else moving in - OR (pardon the run-on sentence - my english teacher would kill me) will Frontier grow immensely at the expense of UAL limited capability?

 

[Heavy Set]

Rightrudder,

If you have read any UAL stories in the press lately, you would know that UAL (and its creditors) are seriously considering the shut-down of the Denver, LA and Dulles hubs. Plus, UAL is burning cash at such a fast rate that their survival is very much in doubt according to A LOT of analysts. Sure, we all hope they will make it, but it doesn't hurt to examine some "what if" scenarios...

I know that CAL has been asked if they could provide up to 300 flights daily should UAL go under - and apparently Bethune's response was "not yet." I guess CAL would pull some MD80s out of the desert. If given a good deal by the city of Denver, I bet SWA and JB would jump at cheap gates and large O&D traffic. I believe JB already serves Denver and could likely ramp-up with an existing infrastructure (though small at the moment).

I am sure Frontier would also attempt to ramp-up depending upon the availability of cheap gates and cheap aircraft - but if UAL folds, there will likely be cheap aircraft and cheap pilots available.

Just my 2 cents...

 

[learherkjay]

Cheap gates at DEN - soundsl like DIA is going to have to start reducing gate prices to get someone to come in to serve Denver. I am not totally aware of the history, but I do know that DEN was a hub for CAL at one time; surely some senior guys still living in CO would like to see CAL go back in. I am curious about SWA though. They are usually conservative about going in somewhere. Just not sure if they would "jump" into DEN. JB seems like a logical choice. Gives them something between NY and CA to start spreading out. But what do I know? Absolutely nothing!!!!

 

[enigma]

Denver just has too many negtives to make for profitable hub operations. I doubt that any carrier will make DEN a large hub. It makes more sense to me to conclude that DEN will become a fragmented market, served by all of the remaining carriers from their strongpoints. I think the largest gains will be obviously be made by Frontier, and a gaggle of RJ's operated by everybody. I hope Spirit takes advantage but I just don't know if our management structure can handle any rapid expansion.

regards.
8N

 

[Ty Webb]

I'm with Enigma

I'm with Enigma . . . I don't see anyone "pouncing" on a hub, just probably providing more service, at least initially, if UAL pulls back . . . or worse.

Back in January, AirTran announced service from ATL starting in May. I'm sure if other opportunities arise for point-to-point, we'll put in some additional flights as well.

 

[General Lee]

Ty Webb,

I have heard from many friends at Continental and Continental Express that the word over there is that their CLE hub is not performing as well as expected (even though they got a brand new terminal there that is nice) and that Gordon wants to go back to Den. They could easily dismantle CLE in steps and increase service to DEN. Continental doesn't really have a lot of extra cash or borrowing power, but DIA could offer incentives that could be too good to pass up. With ATL's gate space limits, maybe Airtran will start up there with more than just ATL flights. (Maybe an A320 base there for you guys)

Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Two-9-9-TwoSet]

DENVER

What the he11 will they do with that 40,000 + feet runway they're building if UAL performs the disappearing act???

by the way, that was sarcasm on the runway length..

 

[Ty Webb]

Ty Webb,

Continental doesn't really have a lot of extra cash or borrowing power, but DIA could offer incentives that could be too good to pass up.




I'm sure that eventually, someone will. I would just be surprised to see a big, bold move right now. About the only one making big moves is DAL.


With ATL's gate space limits, maybe Airtran will start up there with more than just ATL flights. (Maybe an A320 base there for you guys)

NAh, we'll probably wait until DAL starts a hub there, and then become their mountain gadfly, too. Heh-heh!

Just kidding. Actually, my crystal ball is very cloudy right now; so many changes in this industry at once, and none of them for the better. This thing about the USAirway retirements is sickening, and the ramifications through the industry could be huge.

It's really unfortunate that there was not a successful move early on to form a pilot's guild . . . or that ALPA never became empowered like the AMA or the Bar Association . . . where all pilots flying the same equipment make the same hourly rate, and then companies would have to achieve their cost-cutting elsewhere.


Bye Bye---General Lee [/B]