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Who's Right??

pdub20s

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 7, 2006
Posts
858
Total Time
..
I believe that around 2013 when the age 65/pilot shortage hits and there is mass attrition due to retirements that labor practices will change.

My roommate believes that the airlines will not increase the current capacity to compensate for the attrition. ergo, business as usual.

I believe that there will be such an exodus due to the attrition and the lack of pilots in training...Airlines management must make the job more appealing.

Thoughts?
 

Lear70

JAFFO
Joined
Oct 17, 2003
Posts
7,487
Total Time
4abeer
Not a chance.

History has proven that. Management has, historically speaking, always worked since deregulation to dumb down pilot expectations of the career, minimalize our jobs and the importance we play to the operation as a whole, and to equalize all employees, from baggage handlers and gate agents to mechanics and pilots, so everyone is taught that they can all pretty much expect to make the same money.

What you'll see, if it gets hard to staff the airlines, is a big push for a MPL or an opening of restrictions on foreign pilots. Why? That's easy.

It takes time to spool up the training pipeline for pilots who are experienced enough to fly for the airlines. Simply increasing the compensation package will get more new pilots interested in the career, but it will take 3-5 years for those pilots to reach just the regionals.

So as the majors lose pilots, there will be plenty of regionals and freight companies to supply the majors. That means the majors won't feel the tightening of supply like the regionals and freighters will. It's THOSE companies that might see a compensation increase, but they would be simultaneously screaming for that MPL or foreign pilot staffing relief.

That fight is definitely coming, just a matter of time... Don't look for staffing problems to solve our collective a$$es in this career. The only thing that's doing that is for each and every Airline Pilot to make the improvement of our careers their personal responsibility, and not just rely on "their MEC" to do all the heavy lifting for them.
 

crj567

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 20, 2008
Posts
2,052
I believe that around 2013 when the age 65/pilot shortage hits and there is mass attrition due to retirements that labor practices will change.

My roommate believes that the airlines will not increase the current capacity to compensate for the attrition. ergo, business as usual.

I believe that there will be such an exodus due to the attrition and the lack of pilots in training...Airlines management must make the job more appealing.

Thoughts?

Yawn-

Kit Darby tried to convince us of this for DECADES... You see where the freaking industry is now-

WE ARE ALL SCREWED!
 

Propsync

Everybody to the limit!
Joined
Mar 29, 2004
Posts
722
Total Time
5000?
Thoughts? APC says AA has 272 MD-80's. If you think all will get replaced 1:1 at mainline, you're nuts. The future is RJ's, meaning fewer mainline jobs. If you can hack the regionals for 10-15 years, maybe 20, there might be a mainline job for you. Otherwise, you're SOOL.
 

pdub20s

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 7, 2006
Posts
858
Total Time
..
The future is RJ's, meaning fewer mainline jobs. If you can hack the regionals for 10-15 years, maybe 20, there might be a mainline job for you. Otherwise, you're SOOL.

I disageree, when you havw things like scope.. RJs can only get so big. Also the paying public likes the idea of flying in big jets. What RJ pilot doesnt know the most common reaction of the passengers when the board the aircraft..."This plane is little"..
 

Paul R. Smith

Fender Bender
Joined
Jan 15, 2004
Posts
722
Total Time
4:30
I disageree, when you havw things like scope.. RJs can only get so big. Also the paying public likes the idea of flying in big jets. What RJ pilot doesnt know the most common reaction of the passengers when the board the aircraft..."This plane is little"..

The "paying public" likes alot of things but only care about one thing when it comes time to buy a ticket. Sure they will complain about the size of the airplane but in the end they don't care THAT much.

You fly "RJs"? I flew em for 7 years and a B1900d for a year and change before that. I never saw one person deplane because of the size of the airplane. Hell if the last 9 years are any indication, I will probably end up flying another larger "RJ" for less pay in the near future.

Its good to have hope though.
 

blzr

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 6, 2002
Posts
1,502
Total Time
5500
There is a bill in congress right now that is due for a vote next year increasing the retirement age to 75. Nope, no pilot shortage ahead, but all flights will have, at least, 3 pilots since the chances for heart attack and stroke in the cockpit will increase.
 

acpilot

I am...PROFESSOR FATE!
Joined
Aug 27, 2006
Posts
2,462
Total Time
+/-MMM
I disageree, when you havw things like scope.. RJs can only get so big.

Who thought "regional jets" would get as large as they are now?

ERJ-195: 108-122 seats
ERJ-190: roughly 100 seats
CRJ-1000: 100 seats

The factory and airlines will decide how big "regional jets" get.
 

crj567

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 20, 2008
Posts
2,052
I disageree, when you havw things like scope.. RJs can only get so big. Also the paying public likes the idea of flying in big jets. What RJ pilot doesnt know the most common reaction of the passengers when the board the aircraft..."This plane is little"..

The flying public cares about flying backand forth to Fresno for $159 round trip WAAAAY more than they care about the size of the jet.. Beats the hell out of driving (unless you happen to be unfortunate enough to have booked a connection on Mesa.)
 

~~~^~~~

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 21, 2001
Posts
6,137
Total Time
7,500+
Lear 70 is so right on this one.
 

PCL_128

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 21, 2002
Posts
15,296
Total Time
5000+
There is a bill in congress right now that is due for a vote next year increasing the retirement age to 75.

Where did you hear that?
 

Flopgut

Well-known member
Joined
May 16, 2005
Posts
3,627
Total Time
15k
Lear 70 is so right on this one.

I'm 99% in agreement as well.

I hold out 1% to the fact that there are so few ATP (or equivilent) pilots in the world. They might run out of enough of us to make even MPL work.
 

wms

billSquared
Joined
Sep 4, 2003
Posts
2,052
Total Time
10500
My thoughts? You and your roomate have to much time on your hands.
 

glasspilot

Well-known member
Joined
May 17, 2004
Posts
1,622
Total Time
9K'ish
"Two" roommates have "too" much time "to" debate.
 

crj567

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 20, 2008
Posts
2,052
Not a chance.

History has proven that. Management has, historically speaking, always worked since deregulation to dumb down pilot expectations of the career, minimalize our jobs and the importance we play to the operation as a whole, and to equalize all employees, from baggage handlers and gate agents to mechanics and pilots, so everyone is taught that they can all pretty much expect to make the same money.

What you'll see, if it gets hard to staff the airlines, is a big push for a MPL or an opening of restrictions on foreign pilots. Why? That's easy.

It takes time to spool up the training pipeline for pilots who are experienced enough to fly for the airlines. Simply increasing the compensation package will get more new pilots interested in the career, but it will take 3-5 years for those pilots to reach just the regionals.

So as the majors lose pilots, there will be plenty of regionals and freight companies to supply the majors. That means the majors won't feel the tightening of supply like the regionals and freighters will. It's THOSE companies that might see a compensation increase, but they would be simultaneously screaming for that MPL or foreign pilot staffing relief.

That fight is definitely coming, just a matter of time... Don't look for staffing problems to solve our collective a$$es in this career. The only thing that's doing that is for each and every Airline Pilot to make the improvement of our careers their personal responsibility, and not just rely on "their MEC" to do all the heavy lifting for them.

Absolutely-

Mexican pilots will be flying here within the next decade.. Once that camel gets its nose in the tent you had better have a good backup plan!
 
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