Who's retiring at the Majors . . .

[btflyer2]

Anyone at the majors have fairly reliable information about the projected number of pilot retirements over the next 5-8 years?

A few years back I kept hearing that 30-50% of the pilots at the majors would be retiring in the next 10 years, due to age 60 rule.

Just trying to figure out the pros and cons of continuing to pursue an aviation career. Thanks for any info.

 

[Bill Mostellar]

Re: Who's retiring. . .Delta

Anyone at the majors have fairly reliable information about the projected number of pilot retirements over the next 5-8 years?

Here are some numbers for Delta

Year/Retirements/My Seniority
2003 102 7322
2004 195 7127
2005 204 6923
2006 207 6716
2007 276 6440
2008 312 6128
2009 280 5848
2010 270 5578
2011 283 5295
2012 266 5029
2013 277 4752
2014 328 4424
2015 361 4063
2016 463 3600
2017 545 3055
2018 516 2539
2019 507 2032
2020 433 1599
2021 362 1237
2022 259 978
2023 167 811

I wish you success!

 

[rice]

Just Curious

Bill,
How many are currently below you on the list and do those retirements also include projections for LOL and other unplanned departures?

Thanks

 

[Cardinal]

Continental Mainline, more information than you wanted to know.

2003: 147
2004: 112
2005: 161
2006: 249
2007: 322
2008: 246
2009: 218
2010: 210
2011: 220
2012: 217
2013: 194
2014: 201
2015: 167
2016: 192
2017: 182
2018: 179
2019: 149
2020: 145
2021: 149
2022: 150
2023: 177
2024: 119
2025: 130
2026: 99
2027: 81
2028: 82
2029: 81
2030: 55
2031: 26
2032: 16
2033: 6
2034: 4
2035: 1

 

[Bill Mostellar]

Re: Just Curious

Bill,
How many are currently below you on the list and do those retirements also include projections for LOL and other unplanned departures?

I had 1,568 below me when the 'unplesantries' started. I'll have 258 on June 1st. :O

The retirement numbers I posted don't include early-outs, etc.

I wish you success!

 

[typhoonpilot]

I pulled this off a website using a mythical 28 year old hired near the end of USAirways hiring in 2001 so it should be fairly close but not exact. It shows the happy 28 year old's progression up the seniority list until he/she retires.


Today's date is: 2003-5-21

Your birthday was entered as: 1972-6-1

Your hire date was entered as: 2001-5-1

Date Snapshot Pilots Senior
2003-5-21 5326
2004-5-21 5214
2005-5-21 5094
2006-5-21 4912
2007-5-21 4676
2008-5-21 4442
2009-5-21 4240
2010-5-21 4008
2011-5-21 3790
2012-5-21 3545
2013-5-21 3252
2014-5-21 2956
2015-5-21 2665
2016-5-21 2356
2017-5-21 2078
2018-5-21 1829
2019-5-21 1574
2020-5-21 1344
2021-5-21 1143
2022-5-21 981
2023-5-21 813
2024-5-21 668
2025-5-21 560
2026-5-21 459
2027-5-21 358
2028-5-21 266
2029-5-21 191
2030-5-21 131
2031-5-21 77
2032-5-21 34

Of course, what this doesn't say is that the junior pilot still working at USAirways is in the high 3000s. So our happy 28 year old will be on furlough until 2011


Typhoonpilot

 

[UALX727]

Here is the UAL breakdown of those pilots that reach 60 years old each year, it doesn't include medical retirements and early outs.

2003: 287 (will be many more due to early outs)
2004: 230
2005: 295
2006: 308
2007: 301
2008: 259
2009: 239
2010: 211
2011: 178
2012: 242
2013: 248
2014: 246
2015: 280
2016: 334
2017: 301
2018: 371
2019: 353
2020: 452
2021: 498
2022: 495
2023: 551
2024: 527
2025: 500
2026: 534
2027: 350
2028: 217

 

[FLB717]

These numbers all sound real good, but the question is how long will it take the furloughed guys to return and with the RJ growth what will Main Lines look like in the future. AHH to have a Crystal ball.

 

[tbkane]

As a furloughee at DAL that is the literal 10,000,000 question. When will we be back. I would say it is going to be a long time 3-4 more years at least until you see hiring again at DAL.

 

[Falconjet]

FedEx retirements

Here are the numbers from the FedEx website, unfortunately the data is 2 years old. It reflects the 3769 pilots who were with the company in May 01, there are now 4280, so there are about 500 retirements that will be added to these numbers over the next 33 years.

2003 83
2004 76
2005 128
2006 162
2007 170
2008 155
2009 133
2010 165
2011 156
2012 187
2013 177
2014 141
2015 169
2016 196
2017 195
2018 186
2019 180
2020 179
2021 186
2022 152
2023 138
2024 116
2025 66
2026 81
2027 58
2028 47
2029 46
2030 9
2031 11
2032 11
2033 5
2034 1
2035 3
2036 1

 

[General Lee]

Between April 1st and May 1st---we had 175 pilots retire from Delta, and 92 of them were early out (some were 54 years old----most were 57-59), and 61 were Ropes---or Over age 60 727FE's. I believe the number projected for June 1st is around 45---with 41 of them being early outs. This is good news for all of the junior pilots, and mid-level pilots looking for upgrades. These retirements are primarily due to the low GATT rate and worries about possible pension problems-------take your money and run!!!


Bye Bye---General Lee