where is the aviation industry going???

[wessidmike]

I guess my question starts out as, is aviation going to be a career that i will be able to support a family with. And where is aviation going in the near future. I know i love to fly but i'm at the point (just about to start my commercial rating) where i haven't put so much money into flying that i can't change my career. although it would be very difficult, due to the fact that i've fallen in love with it. I'm trying to decide weather this career is going to be worth the risk. I hear all your stories about not being able to get jobs, and i know about all the airlines that have gone under and all the pilots that have lost their jobs. But i also have allot of family and friends who are/were in the airlines, and wouldn't have been happier doing anything else.


My father flew international his whole life and retired captian of a 747 and made a very decent living doing it. Although he was gone allot, the time he was home was worth the part of him being away. From talking with him, he's worried that the aviation industry is very very volitile right now and could go either way. But on the other hand if you look at the statistics as to how many flights there are each year, it's growing at quite a good rate. More flights = more jobs right?

Air transportation is (i'm sure you'll all agree) the fastest route of travel and most likely will be around for a long time. So wouldn't you think there's going to be a future for pilots in the future... I don't think humanity will take a step back in technology. 9-11 set the industry back numerious years, but before 9-11 airlines seemed to still be prosperious, although i may be mistaken.

I'd love to hear your thoughts about what you think we can expect in the future.... Cause in the next few months i'm gonna be making that critical decision as to what direction i'm going to take. Pilot or DESK JOB

 

[idleclamp]

You're probably going to get bombarded with this thread. There was one on not too long ago concerning roughly the same thing.

Here's what you have (or don't have) to look forward to. Keep in mind I'm only one person but have been pretty fortunate with my career.

I started flight training in the early 90's when you couldn't even buy a job. But by the time I got my ratings and did a couple years of flight instructing, the industry started opening up. I was fortunate enough to ride the up-swing. Now I'm at a job flying international and making a decent living. I enjoy my job and absolutely could not imagine having a "normal" 8-5 job. I'd go insane. In the other thread I was referring to earlier some people said things like, "If I had to do it again, I'd be a doctor or lawyer." The problem with that way of thinking (in my opinion) is much the same as people see our industry. People on the other side of the fence see flying as a cake walk and everybody makes over $200K/year right out of flight training. But the same holds true for other industries like medine or law. You don't jump out of medical school as a doctor and make fantastic money working 8-2 four days a week. You have to be on call, do internships, etc.

Unless you're extremely lucky, the first 7 or 8 years of flying will be tight. And much of it depends on which facet of the industry you want to pursue. If you already have a family, they have to be on board, or you'll either end up divorced or back to a desk job, and probably miserable in both accounts.

Hopefully this helps.

 

[Jedi_Cheese]

Take the desk job, I don't want to fight you to the death for the spots that will be open next year when we are both eligable for them. I am a much more qualified pilot and better intervewee

PS: what school you going to?

 

[Timebuilder]

I'd like to try and answer that..


(mutters, shakes head, looks under pile of laundry)

Now where the heck did I put that handbasket?

 

[Ailerongirl]

I'd like to try and answer that..


(mutters, shakes head, looks under pile of laundry)

Now where the heck did I put that handbasket?

*laughing* Well put TB!

 

[flx757]

I had a medical issue last summer which caused me to lose my medical. Throughout my piloting career, I had also been heavily involved in flight standards and training, so I had no problem landing an excellent manangement position in the training department of a major airline. Seeing the state of the industry, tiring of travel, relishing the idea of being home everyday, plus working in training, which I have always enjoyed, was a very attractive proposition, and I was totally convinced I had no desire to go back to a flying position. I have a well compensated, relatively secure position doing something I have always enjoyed, but it is, for the most part, a desk type job....not a true desk job, but not a flying job, either.

Then last week, for the first time since my last trip as a pilot, I flew in the cockpit jumpseat. Anyone care to guess how much I miss it now?

Need I say more?

 

[mar]

I've said it 100 times:

Do what you love and the rest will follow.

Of course I'm single, no kids and no house. I own a futon and three day old milk.

I can up-sticks in about six hours real quick like.

This lifestyle ain't for everyone. You either got it in you or you don't. You won't know til you try.

Good luck.

 

[wessidmike]

Take the desk job, I don't want to fight you to the death for the spots that will be open next year when we are both eligable for them. I am a much more qualified pilot and better intervewee

PS: what school you going to?

I'm going to San Diego Flight Training International... It's based in (you guessed it San Diego) out of Montgomery Field

 

[wessidmike]

anyone have a site on what to expect for salaries in both regional and major airlines... i need to plan ahead on how long i'm gonna be in DEBT

 

[Jedi_Cheese]

A regional starts at ~20k, expect to be there for around 5 years, more or less depending on how the economy is doing. The pay curve goes up from there as you gain senority. A major will start at ~30k but it goes up pretty quick. You lose pay senority when you move up to another aircraft or upgrade seats but then you can top out at more $$$.

No matter where you go, enjoy eating raman b/c you will be eating it for a while.

If you truely love flying, it will be worth it. If you are doing it for the $$$, don't bother b/c there are easier ways of making money (I hear blood plasma isn't too bad of a price and it regrows! Or you could try out your local sperm bank...).

 

[Timebuilder]

There's the rub. As Mar said, it isn't for everyone.

You DO have to LOVE it.

I'm not sure about blood prices, but the sperm bank has requirements like "GQ" and "PHD." In other words, look like a model and be VERY smart.

If your interest is in a fat paycheck, this is the wrong business, and will continue to become more "wrong" over time.

 

[cr7driver]

It seems as though that the jobs that our fathers had are gone. It was about transportation with class and elegance. Now its just about going from A to B, sometimes 5 times a day. The class and elegance has been replaced by budget cuts and corporate greed.
but hey, ...that is my 2 cents worth!

 

[FlyChicaga]

Yes, the days of our fathers and grandfathers are gone. Those were times where the world moved much slower than it does today. With the advent of new technologies, the world has become a place where people and information can move from one end of the world to another within a day. Just think: You are at a business meeting in Japan at 8 AM, deal done by noon. Then you catch a flight out of Tokyo, and 14 hours later are home. 50 years ago this would not be possible.

It's just like broadband internet, e-mail, cell phones, and the like. I'm sure those are changes we all embrace. It is nice to remember the history of aviation, but it is also exciting to see how flying has become an absolute necessity in the modern world.

We as pilots just cannot allow this career field to deteriorate in pay and benefits simply because flying has become more commonplace. It is a safer, easier, and less risky job than the days of the DC-3, but that does not negate it's importance.

 

[FN FAL]

It seems as though that the jobs that our fathers had are gone. It was about transportation with class and elegance. Now its just about going from A to B, sometimes 5 times a day. The class and elegance has been replaced by budget cuts and corporate greed.
but hey, ...that is my 2 cents worth!

Yea I hear ya...it really sucks that transportation has expanded in efficiency and capacity to the point where not only rich people can travel, but so can the average joe, bringing with it the creation of many more jobs than were ever imangined during the so called "romantic era" of flying that you are reminiscing about.

I think if the airlines double or triple their prices, we could get rid of them stinky steerage class travelers that fill the seats of our airlines today...we then could get rid of all them low paying regional jobs everybody hates, when the pax levels recede to the level of the 50's by just catering to the affluent...restoring airline travel to the "class and elegance" of the good old days.

 

[idleclamp]

There's the rub. As Mar said, it isn't for everyone.

You DO have to LOVE it.

I'm not sure about blood prices, but the sperm bank has requirements like "GQ" and "PHD." In other words, look like a model and be VERY smart.

If your interest is in a fat paycheck, this is the wrong business, and will continue to become more "wrong" over time.

What do you consider a "fat" paycheck? $75K? $100K? $200K? When it comes to efficiency, other industries are streamlining just like us. You might get a desk job making $150K, but you'll probably be working 60-80 hours per week, plus some weekends. I personally prefer being away from home for 12-15 days a month, actually working maybe 7 or 8 of those, then going home to do whatever I want for the rest of the month.

 

[illinipilot]

I have bounced around for about a year. I march I started flying at a University and working on my MBA. I get paid 17 g's per year and free tuition. I'm broke, drive a car that stalls in traffic, live with three people in a two bedroom apartment.... and wouldn't trade it for the world

 

[Timebuilder]

What do I consider a "fat paycheck?"

The kind of check you got at a major airline before we saw regional jets taking over mainline routes, before the proliferation of private jet aircaft that have drained off what used to be the first class passenger, before many people began to actively avoid air travel, and before people were hired because they fit a special social profile.

Those checks. The one that have become few and far between, and only earned by the top people, before they are forced to retire.

Those checks.

 

[mar]

Loads are *up*. *Yields* are down.

TB--I almost agreed with you for a second <phew!>

I don't think people are "avoiding" air travel anymore. Maybe for a short time after 9/11 but not any longer.

The airlines need to be brave right now. They need to have the confidence to provide *good* service and have the cajones the *charge* for it!

Anyone else catch the press release that Typhoonpilot posted about Emirates profits? They *exceeded* forecast.

Emirates provides awesome service and they're not afraid to charge for it.

Of course they don't compete with any LCC. I understand that.

I understand that all too well. Free enterprise. Love it or leave it.

 

[Timebuilder]

Mar, if I get up your way, it's you, me, and Jackson. I'm buying.

I think we agree. Free enterprise includes new people taking a long, hard look at the industry, both as it is now, and the trend for its future. The ones looking for the checks of ten years ago will say "thant's not enough for me" and go elsewhere. Eventually, the number of available pilots goes down, like in 1965 when PPL's were being hired and trained.

Compensation IS an aspect of career choice. As word spreads of the lower wage plateau, labor will become more scarce. Supply and demand. Right now, we have a lot of people who were expecting a different outcome, who started years before these changes. It's the new kids who may be easily drawn to other careers. The rest of us either stick it out, or adapt to life as it is.

 

[mar]

Hmm. Never thought of it like that.

Time will tell.

So you know Jackson? Well any friend of Jackson is a friend of mine. Sure I'll let you buy!



But same deal if I make it out "there" <shiver>. I'm buying.