Where is LUV stock going???

[PurpleTail]

Would anyone at SWA (or anyone else for that matter) like to look into their crystal ball and make some predictions on where the LUV stock is headed??

With the continued hiring, acquisition of more and more aircraft and route expansion it seems like a reasonablely priced stock for a 12-36 month investment.

I am not on property and not privy to "inside" information so any input would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks in advance.

 

[satpak77]

Just remember the stock of a company is not necessarily representative of the company itself. Stock share price goes up and down based on buying/selling pressures in the market, just like at the used car auction.

If 20 Volvo's in good condition are for bid, but the market buyers simply want SUV's today and nobody wants a Volvo, which indeed is a well-built and safe car, well, the Volvo prices are not going to be as high as they could be. They WILL sell EVENTUALLY at SOME PRICE, and this price is the price the market determines the are worth at that time. No PE mumbo jumbo, no future earnings outlook, debt ratios, nothing. Whatever price the un-wanted or out-of-favor Volvos EVENTUALLY SELL AT TODAY is what the market has determined they are WORTH TODAY. Period. End of story. Its that simple.

Think of the market as "the store." We have all gone to the local store and seen some trinket that was worth minimal value but priced high. "You gotta be kidding me!" we said. "This is junk". However, if we wanted to purchase this item, REGARDLESS of our opinions, feelings, CNBC experts, etc, we MUST PAY THAT PRICE DETERMINED BY THE STORE.

80% of the movement in stock prices is the result of institutional money, such as mutual funds and state retirement plan managers. These people typically tend to be in the top sector at the time, currently they are Telecom, Metal ores, Steel, and Computer Security.

Airlines are way down on the list of sectors (provided by Investors Business Daily).

Again, you and I know SWA is a solid company. No question about that. However the stock price, for the reasons above, is down. The "sector within a sector", the "low fare" carriers, AAI (AirTran), JBLU, SWA, are all down and if you bring up their stock charts they are closely identical. This is a further testament to sector rotation.

As far as "predicting" where LUV is going, well right now, the trend is down. It also is down on high volume the last few weeks, which is indicative of distribution or people exiting positions, usually in favor of something else.

Also note that stocks go down faster than they go up. That is because people conduct "Due Diligence" on the buy side, but on the sell side, if its dropping quickly, most people hit the button on the screen that says "Get the FXXX out" and they just want to get out and ask questions later. For this reason, a stock that is at an all time high for the year, if it "rolls over" on extremely high volume, these are good short-sell candidates since a day or two later the entire planet is off-loading which just kills the price.

Nobody can predict the market, just remember the market is ALWAYS right and its best to be WITH IT not against it. (Dont buy Enron after it left $90 and hit $5 because "its cheap" like CNBC told you to do.)

the above are personal opinions only, use your own judgement

and turn off CNBC and watch Discovery Wings or the adult channels, your porfolio will thank you

 

[pb4ufly]

I agree with satpak77 about LUV; at the same time if any of us could predict what the market will do and when, then we shouldn't be flying planes for a living!

Charles Schwab rated LUV a "D" for underperform. Better than JBLU's "F" but worse than AMR's "B"

SOUTHWEST AIRLINES: LUV
Schwab Equity Rating: Underperform
Rating Scale: A, B, C, D, F
Rated as of Feb. 6, 2004

Schwab has assigned SOUTHWEST AIRLINES an overall rating of "D" based on the following grades:


Fundamentals: C

Valuation: D

Momentum: D

Risk: C

 

[PurpleTail]

Thanks pb4ufly for the info...oh...and don't forget to take a dump too

 

[satpak77]

Purple

Hey brother didnt want to sound like I was giving a lecture or something.

I think you are correct in that SWA is growing and expanding and possibly is a good investment. My opinion at this present time however, is "standby" until the stock prices begins to show some up trend to it.

take care man

 

[JB74]

If you are just looking for an entry price into the stock if can be rather simple.

First, look at the 1 or 2 year chart. Overlay the 50 and 200 day moving averages and it will pretty much tell you when to buy. When the 50 day crosses the 200 day (positively), that is when you buy. When the opposite happens, that is when you sell. Pretty cut and dry. Do some research and you will see what I mean.


Good Luck

PS Here is what I am talking about

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=LUV&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=m50,m200&a=&c=

 

[Gearup727]

LUV Stock

LUV stock is not going anywhere. It hasn't done jack in 5 years. I wish my retirement was dependent on airline stocks. The pilots at South West need to get their heads out of the clouds and get and A plan. They and the other low cost airlines are gutting the industry's good quality jobs. SW guys and gals bust their you know what’s for the company. They should not have to depend on the company stock for the couple of years past 60 they will probably last after SW gets done with them. Remember what Warren Buffett said about airline stocks; on second thought he doesn’t have a clue.

 

[SWA/FO]

Dude,

Our retirement has nothing to do with SWA stock. That is unless one decided not to do the 401k and put all his/her profit sharing funds into SWA stock.

Our stock options are part of our contract (pay). We have 8-12 years for LUV to recover/go up before we have to cash them in. This is good.

 

[AlbieF15]

Satpak,

Who needs adult channels when we have JB74s avator!

Yow!

 

[satpak77]

Albie

Yeah I agree! I found myself staring at that in a hypnotic state

JB- I also use the 50/200 crossover to determine market trend. Not many people use "technical analysis" but it is akin to using radar to see storms. "Fundamental analysis" is turning the radar off and measuring outside temp, humidity, etc and rolling the dice on whether it "should be" a Level 2 or its really a Level 5.

take care guys