Where is ACA growth coming from?

[Hosed COEX]

I am a bit curious as to why ACA is hiring as briskly as they are. According to their latest quarterly results, they currently have 128 aircraft in their fleet. By 4/2004, they will have 154 aircraft at which time they will have taken delivery of all firm orders of CRJs (including the new order to replace the FRJs not being delivered) and retired all the J41 turboprops.

I have heard they plan to hire another 150-200 this year and something like 500 next year. For a net gain of 26 aircraft over the next 20 months, how is this possible? Any insights?

 

[RJPilott]

as much as i hate to contribute to the rumor mill, but we are hearing everything from 400 more aircraft for the UEX carriers with ACA getting the majority of em to Denver flying to CRJ-700 theories. Stay tuned.......

 

[BlueRidger]

I think that 500 pilots next year is bit inflated as well but when you consider that 154 airplanes means about 1400 pilots just to cover the flying. now add about 20% reserves. Also remove management pilots, pilots on military leave and other leave that takes away another 150 pilots, also account for all the pilots who will also be upgrading and transitioning to new AC which keeps pilots offline for up to 3 months (finally that low) adds a need for many more pilots this adds up to about 2000 pilots needed. Right now we have about 1500 pilots on the senority list, including people in training. That means room for 500 more pilots. Now attrition is a big mystery. I know of a few pilots who are leaving for Southwest, Jet Blue and Air Tran. There are not too many retirements in the near future. Our management is also fairly agressive in finding growth so I would not be surprised to see them adding more planes in the future.