"Where have all the Pilots Gone?"

[ualdriver]

Here's some interesting information from a recent article in Air Transport World, which is an airline managment magazine. The article was titled "Where Have All the Pilots Gone?"

U.S. will need 120,000 new pilots by 2017

FAA estimates it will take 15 years from 2001 to get our number of U.S. based Airline Transport Pilots back to where they were in 2001/2002. Ditto for active Commercial Pilots. There were also some other statistics in there showing how the U.S. pilot pool since 2001 has shrunk in the number of student, commercial, and ATP pilots. But the number of CFI's has gone up about 10% during that time.

Pinnacle Airlines experienced attrition rates of 25%, with as many as 10-20 pilots leaving each month. "We were in a pretty difficult situation," VP Phil Reed told ATW. ".......we had a great deal of difficulty keeping our schedule active." Pinnacle had to reduce flying and pay a 1.3M penalty to NWA. VP Phil Reed goes on to say later in the article, "a Pinnacle Captain with several years of flying can make $80,000 or $90,000 annualy........pilots begin at low rates but ramp up quickly....."

VP Warren Wilkinson of Republic Airways says, ".....we are not having a problem now hiring pilots......we are filling our classes and haven't lowered our minimums." Early he stated that in the 1st quarter of '07, they had high pilot attrition rates and had to slow growth because they couldn't staff the cockpits.

Jim French, MD of UK based Flybe says, "I can understand the shortage with that salary [$20,000/yr. or less]. No one is going to go through the private investment.....with such a return on the investment. You could not recruit pilots in Europe based on that rate." A Q400 F/O at Flybe makes 25,000 POUNDS Per year to start, rising to 38,000 pounds per year. Flybe Captains make 52,000 pounds per year and rise to 63,000 pounds per year.

Frank Ayears, chairman of the ERAU Flight Department states that enrollment in ERAU aviation programs are up about 25% for the past 2 years. He said it was the busiest summer they've ever had.

You can get ATW for *free* if you sign up on their website or fill out a card from inside the magazine.

 

[Pilot124]

We all need to stand up and demand more money!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Good return on your investment? Nope!!!
86 people's lives in your hand? Yep!!
CEO make millions? YEP!!!
company making money hand over fist...ahhh Yep!!!
Working for peanuts? Yep!!!


There is a huge pilot shortage guys. This is where the ball is finally in OUR court. Let demand what we deserve dammit!!!!!

 

[Whiskey Tango]

ERAU aviation programs are up about 25% for the past 2 years.

Talk about bad return on investment. I'm not saying Riddle pilots are bad I am saying that that school is rediculously expensive.

 

[OzBushWhacker]

In Oz too.

"THE SHORTAGE of pilots across Australia has become so acute that some airlines are being forced to scour the former Eastern Bloc for new recruits, while others are having to reduce the number of routes they fly."

http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/pilots-take-flight/2007/10/12/1191696173813.html

 

[i fly boxes]

Here's some interesting information from a recent article in Air Transport World, which is an airline managment magazine. The article was titled "Where Have All the Pilots Gone?"

U.S. will need 120,000 new pilots by 2017

FAA estimates it will take 15 years from 2001 to get our number of U.S. based Airline Transport Pilots back to where they were in 2001/2002. Ditto for active Commercial Pilots. There were also some other statistics in there showing how the U.S. pilot pool since 2001 has shrunk in the number of student, commercial, and ATP pilots. But the number of CFI's has gone up about 10% during that time.

VP Phil Reed goes on to say latPinnacle Airlines experienced attrition rates of 25%, with as many as 10-20 pilots leaving each month. "We were in a pretty difficult situation," VP Phil Reed told ATW. ".......we had a great deal of difficulty keeping our schedule active." Pinnacle had to reduce flying and pay a 1.3M penalty to NWA. er in the article, "a Pinnacle Captain with several years of flying can make $80,000 or $90,000 annualy........pilots begin at low rates but ramp up quickly....."

VP Warren Wilkinson of Republic Airways says, ".....we are not having a problem now hiring pilots......we are filling our classes and haven't lowered our minimums." Early he stated that in the 1st quarter of '07, they had high pilot attrition rates and had to slow growth because they couldn't staff the cockpits.

Jim French, MD of UK based Flybe says, "I can understand the shortage with that salary [$20,000/yr. or less]. No one is going to go through the private investment.....with such a return on the investment. You could not recruit pilots in Europe based on that rate." A Q400 F/O at Flybe makes 25,000 POUNDS Per year to start, rising to 38,000 pounds per year. Flybe Captains make 52,000 pounds per year and rise to 63,000 pounds per year.

Frank Ayears, chairman of the ERAU Flight Department states that enrollment in ERAU aviation programs are up about 25% for the past 2 years. He said it was the busiest summer they've ever had.

You can get ATW for *free* if you sign up on their website or fill out a card from inside the magazine.

Maybe if you would give us a new fair contract you wouldnt have that problem you fat piece of crap.

 

[J and E's Daddy]

If pilots aren't willing to do the same job for less, then our pay will go up and we will be respected. Right now, we are merely looked upon as skilled labor. We whored ourselves to the point of paying for our training at one time. And then we whored ourselves to take concessions for growth. Until this vicious cycle ceases and be all get the balls to stand up to mgt, things will not change.

 

[ualdriver]

I still think there is an oversupply of pilots in the U.S. And we're only one economic downturn and/or Age 65 ruling away from becoming even more oversupplied.

 

[norskman2]

I still think there is an oversupply of pilots in the U.S. And we're only one economic downturn and/or Age 65 ruling away from becoming even more oversupplied.

Hey, Kit Darby! How ya doin', man?

 

[OzBushWhacker]

Oversupply?

UALDriver - At your end of town.... yes. At the end where they're paying less than a greeter at walmart.. No.

 

[Quack]

Why doesn't ALPA make more of a stance at the universities and flight schools and put the message out about the qol and pay? if they're not gonna get us what we want at the negoiating table, then might as well fuel the fire where it starts. the only thing that is going to save our pay is an industry wide pilot shortage.

 

[Rerouted]

I just can't see how we don't have a growing shortage. A local DPE told me that overall, checkrides are down by 50% for him and Commercial rides are almost nonexistant. Wilkinson at RAH is not exactly telling the whole truth, but there's no surprise there either. Everything I hear is that RAH is having a very difficult time hiring pilots who can make it through training. They are losing..or lost..a bunch of US Airways J4J pilots and rather than replacing them with these pilots that Wilkinson claims they can so easily find, they decided to pull down flying because they couldn't find and train pilots fast enough. Granted, they needed a bunch of pilots quickly, but still, they aren't exactly awash in excess pilots over there.

 

[Jmoney]

No shortage...

Not a mystery to me. You have to spend mega bucks to get training these days, put in years of your time, and get a job at a crappy regional. The majors don't and won't have a shortage-at least no time soon. The shortage is only for the crappy jobs no one wants.

Why would people spend the time and money for the chance of a good job these days? The same or less time and far less money will get you an MBA and you woul have guaranteed return on your investment.

 

[J and E's Daddy]

Who is not desperate for pilots at the regional level? Why have the min qualifications dropped sharply? Why are some carriers requiring only a commercial AMEL/INST certificate? Why the $5K signing bonuses? Yes, those in that boat are very lucky, as I remember I couldn't even get a CFI or traffic watch job in the early 90's.
Yet, we still have pilots who deliver pizzas at night when they are home. I have a friend who is a GM at a Pizza Hut and a few of his drivers are pilots, who fly day trips and deliver pizza at night.

 

[spacecadet1]

This is because anyone with half a brain and some initiative will do something else. If you lack those two qualities then you are a prime candidate for an airline job.

 

[Flyby1206]

I just can't see how we don't have a growing shortage. A local DPE told me that overall, checkrides are down by 50% for him and Commercial rides are almost nonexistant. Wilkinson at RAH is not exactly telling the whole truth, but there's no surprise there either. Everything I hear is that RAH is having a very difficult time hiring pilots who can make it through training. They are losing..or lost..a bunch of US Airways J4J pilots and rather than replacing them with these pilots that Wilkinson claims they can so easily find, they decided to pull down flying because they couldn't find and train pilots fast enough. Granted, they needed a bunch of pilots quickly, but still, they aren't exactly awash in excess pilots over there.

Of course RAH isnt going to admit they have trouble finding pilots. If they admit this, then perspective carriers thinking of contracting RAH for flying will look elsewhere not wanting to risk staffing shortages causing cancelled flights. There maybe a shortage of pilots for the regionals now, but there is also a glut of route overlap at the regional level. How many times have you seen other regionals flying your same route just on a different colored a/c? Take those 2 50 seaters and sub a 100 seater. Consolidation is coming before youll see $80k for RJ FOs.

 

[Rez O. Lewshun]

Anyone care to draw a comparison to the maritime industry? East bloc labor?

 

[ebaybob]

Somebody explain to me why banks are willing to loan students 100k to pursue ratings when the likelihood of them paying that money back is low. That's the problem with pilot wages...it's tied directly to the amount of money newbies can borrow to meet the minimum qualifications to sit in the right seat.

Pilot wages will increase when the supply of pilots dries up. The supply of pilots will dry up when credit granted to aspiring pilots dries up...not before!

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

Regionals are hiring pilots WITHOUT a commercial rating. They get it when they complete the sim check.

Mesaba is hiring street captains.

PCL had to pay a fine to NWA because their completion rate got too low.

SWA dropped their mins from 1300 PIC to 1000 PIC.

Emirates dropped their TT requirement by 500 hrs to 3500. They dropped their jet requirement by 500 hrs. They ended their max age requirement. They increased their max age to 65. They stopped requiring a type rating or time in type for street captains.

Emirates and Cathay are now at every job fair, and recruiting US pilots hard. Cathay had to ground one of their freighters for lack of pilots.
Other foreign carriers are now home basing pilots in the US.

DAL got WAY less mil applicants than they wanted.

Another poster reported NWA got 1200 applicants in 2 weeks after opening the hiring window. He said last time it was open they got 12,000 applicants in 2 weeks. Other posters said similar numbers about UAL.

UAL/NWA/USAir all began hiring WAY sooner than they planned.

NWA raised their pay/improved their work rules in the middle of a contract. NetJets has offered to pay their pilot group a lot more in the middle of their contract.

A number of flight schools have shut down, as their instructors all left. The ab-initio flight schools in CA/PHX are paying $42K to their flight instructors.

The numbers of student pilots, comm pilots, and ATPs are down severely over the past 5 years, and it will only get worse, relative to the numbers of people wanting to fly, according to the FAA.

But there is no pilot shortage.

cliff
ABQ

 

[Flash]

Is there any list of hard numbers showing student starts, commercial tickets etc? The airport where I learned to fly, right by my house, has been like a ghost town in the last couple of years.

 

[captain dad]

Here's some interesting information from a recent article in Air Transport World, which is an airline managment magazine. The article was titled "Where Have All the Pilots Gone?"

U.S. will need 120,000 new pilots by 2017

FAA estimates it will take 15 years from 2001 to get our number of U.S. based Airline Transport Pilots back to where they were in 2001/2002. Ditto for active Commercial Pilots. There were also some other statistics in there showing how the U.S. pilot pool since 2001 has shrunk in the number of student, commercial, and ATP pilots. But the number of CFI's has gone up about 10% during that time.

Pinnacle Airlines experienced attrition rates of 25%, with as many as 10-20 pilots leaving each month. "We were in a pretty difficult situation," VP Phil Reed told ATW. ".......we had a great deal of difficulty keeping our schedule active." Pinnacle had to reduce flying and pay a 1.3M penalty to NWA. VP Phil Reed goes on to say later in the article, "a Pinnacle Captain with several years of flying can make $80,000 or $90,000 annualy........pilots begin at low rates but ramp up quickly....."

VP Warren Wilkinson of Republic Airways says, ".....we are not having a problem now hiring pilots......we are filling our classes and haven't lowered our minimums." Early he stated that in the 1st quarter of '07, they had high pilot attrition rates and had to slow growth because they couldn't staff the cockpits.

Jim French, MD of UK based Flybe says, "I can understand the shortage with that salary [$20,000/yr. or less]. No one is going to go through the private investment.....with such a return on the investment. You could not recruit pilots in Europe based on that rate." A Q400 F/O at Flybe makes 25,000 POUNDS Per year to start, rising to 38,000 pounds per year. Flybe Captains make 52,000 pounds per year and rise to 63,000 pounds per year.

Frank Ayears, chairman of the ERAU Flight Department states that enrollment in ERAU aviation programs are up about 25% for the past 2 years. He said it was the busiest summer they've ever had.

You can get ATW for *free* if you sign up on their website or fill out a card from inside the magazine.

A Spinicle pilot would have to be there 15 years and work and average of 92 hours each month to break $90,000 gross. I have to call shenanigans on that one. Then again look who said it. What a lieing D0uche Bag.

Great time to ride the wave. Get your board. Surfs Up!imp: