When Will Oil/Fuel Prices Begin to Impact Pilot Job Security?

[BenderGonzales]

• With the closing of the Prudhoe Bay oil field it is expected that oil will exceed $80 per barrel.
• If the instability in the middle-east continues to escalate and Iran withholds oil from the world market prices could continue to rise.
• If Castro dies and the US involves itself in Cuban politics, Venezuela may intervene and restrict its oil output to western markets.
• Another major gulf hurricane could send oil prices well past $100 per barrel.

At what price/barrel will we start to see corporate pilot job security impacted by oil prices?

Do you feel that corporate flying - specifically large Fortune 500 companies - will curtail aircraft usage if fuel costs continue to rise? Will they limit executive travel entirely? Choose the airlines? Are fractionals better equipped to absorb increased fuel costs?

Interested in hearing your thoughts regarding the impact of fuel-prices on large flight departments (with more than 3 or 4 aircraft).

 

[AA717driver]

We have 3 planes now and really shop for the best fuel prices. I suppose we'll still do that when fuel is at $9/gal.

I don't see our people curtailing their flying regardless of the price of fuel but we are a not a "corporation" flight department, we're a family department. I'm sure some corporations will slow down and do electronic conferencing/meetings. But a lot of businesses have determined that the corporate aircraft are a necessary tool for their business to compete effectively.

I'm not worried about my job security but if I were at an airline--particularly a recent Ch. 11 dweller, I'd be acting as if it were October 2001 again and preparing accordingly. JMO.TC

 

[BenderGonzales]

I would feel the same way if I were still at an airline. Surprisingly, there is no real discussion about it in the majors or regionals forum.

I was just feeling a little bad ju-ju when I watched the news this morning, and wondered if anyone else had been starting to feel some concern.

 

[AirBadger]

What's going to happen when oil is no longer a viable option? What's the 'alternative energy' source for turbine engines?

 

[BenderGonzales]

One step at a time Badger. Long before that ever happens the price of oil will rise on decreased supply.

I believe our jobs will be in jeopardy long before (several generations before) we have to worry about a replacement for turbine and internal combustion engines.

 

[G100driver]

While fuel is expensive, the price has little to do with our operations.

Owning a corporate aircraft is about convenience. Do you think fortune 500 company CEO's or super-millionare's are going to go to the terminal and go through security with the Wal-Mart (SWA) crowd?

These types will purchase 1 less car a year before they give up the jet. Outside of fuel your other costs are more or less fixed. If it costs an extra $100,000 or $200,000 a year to operate an airplane, so be it.

If you can afford a $10-50 million airplane this is a simple cost of doing business.

Start getting worried if the boss cancels a trip because of fuel price.

 

[jetfo]

When will oil prices impact pilot job security?

Wait, I know the answer to that one!

When we can't afford to drive to the airport!

 

[BoilerUP]

My guess is it will impact the small one aircraft piston/turboprop/light jet departments first, if not already.

I find it interesting that every keeps claiming "oil demand is outstripping supply" yet the oil companies make RECORD profits quarter after quarter. Sure demand is high and any disruption in the supply chain makes it tough...but its already been discussed ad nausium that the US's fuel cost problem *today* lies in lack of refining capacity and not lack of supply.

If this Alaskan shutdown really did put a crimp on supplies, they would have asked Bush for oil from the strategic oil reserves as he offered...but as of this morning none had taken him up on it. Why? There's no incentive to introduce oil from the SPR when supply really isn't the issue, because all that would do is hurt their margins.

This Alaskan shutdown is just one more excuse for the oil traders & speculators (the real cause of these prices) to jack up prices another $3-10/bbl and gouge us the consumer...the same as any sort of development along the intertropical convergence zone or if somebody in Iran or Saudi Arabia has a headcold...

 

[52560]

Got to love the arrogance of some pilots that posses the "it won't affect me" attitude. Maybe your department hasn't discussed it yet with you, but it is happening all over the place including Fortune 500 companies. I know of three departments (all Fortune 500 companies) on the airport I am based that have made a change in operations due to fuel prices.

The company I work for will fly to airports with better fuel prices even if our passengers have to drive further, depending on the importance of the matter. Some of the passengers we used to fly are now taking the airlines.

There will definitely be a point where fuel affects the bottom line and the stock holders and the board will not accept that type of travel at that cost. I don't know what point that is, but as the business environment has changed over the past few years expect those with a financial interest in a company to scrutinize them more severely.

 

[G100driver]

52560:

I am sorry that you see my response as arrogance. Gas prices do affect me personally but I am refering to the cost business and pleasure for people who spend $1000 a leg on catering. When was the last time that you spent $1000 bucks to feed 6 people? An extra $1000 buck to go to cross the country, no problem. It is the price you pay for convenience. Cannot afford to play the game, get out.

It will not be the price of gas the closes down a flight department, but the overall business or indivdual that cannot afford to play this extemely expensive game. Those that are on edge of closing a flight department will use this excuse. In reality they could not afford it to begin with.

I am not saying that we are immune from shutting down. The airplane could be gone tomorrow. I am a realist though. This game that we play is for the top 1% of the top 1%. Only the super-rich need apply.