What will AirTran's response be?

[Eagle757shark]

This should be fun. Forum: now that Northwest and Midwest have entered into a code share agreement, what will AirTran's response be? Is this Northwest's way of potentially blocking a possible player in their backyard? Will this code share change the minds of the shareholders that are planning to tender their shares to AirTran? Given what happened to AirTran in Midway with ATA, is this a ploy by Midwest to start a bidding war for its certificate? Will AirTran have to up the price before Northwest exits ch.11 and make their own bid for Midwest next month? AirTran wants a Midwest hub, more slots in LGA, and Washington National. Midwest Airlines instantly gives them this. How will this new code share influence the shareholders? As it has been said numerous times by AirTran's management, they regret not getting Midway. Will this code share up the anti, will AirTran stay the course, or just walk away? What are your thoughts? Let the fun begin!

 

[gt1900]

I believe its just an expansion of the code share agreement that they already had... I woulnd't be too worried... It wouldn't make sense for NWA to have a hub in MSP, MKE, and DTW.. But then again, it is the airlines.. So, who knows..

 

[Eagle757shark]

I believe its just an expansion of the code share agreement that they already had... I woulnd't be too worried... It wouldn't make sense for NWA to have a hub in MSP, MKE, and DTW.. But then again, it is the airlines.. So, who knows..

Good point wouldn't make sense for Northwest to have a hub in MKE. However, prior to Ch.11 they were building up in MKE to run Midwest out of business and keep others out. I just remember American buying TWA, wouldn't think they'd need a hub in St Louis, with a massive hub in Chicago. One airline that can't stand AirTran that being Northwest, would love to make it more difficult for AirTran to execute its business plan. History sure does have a way of repeating itself in this industry.

 

[slackass]

It's just Midwests way to try to show expansion without having to actually add any aircraft. The only expansion they have done is to outsource regional flying to another carrier. (Skywest). They can't afford to aquire any aircraft for their own wholly owned. (Skyway) They are adding two MD-80's on short term lease. YX is cash shy and can't afford to finance any aircraft right now. They have always been in their own little niche. The only real competion was from Northwest and that has been slim to none since Northwest's bankruptcy. The only time Midwest takes any action to their business plan is when they are threatned. aka Airtran. Otherwise they would just stick to what has always worked for them and remain stagnant. Midwest has always had a quality product but since 9-11 they are just like everyone else. With many companies running the LLC model they either need to get with the program or they will be assimilated.
I've always wanted to work for Midwest as they are my hometown airline. I recently had that chance but right now I have to pass. I don't really want to be on the bottom of the list if and when a merger happens. If the Airtran merger continues but things don't work out in MKE like they predict there will be furloughs. If Northwest aquires them just as American had a code share with TWA right before the merger it would be a great way to squash the competition and move compass in. Again furloughs. Best of luck to them.

 

[Moustache]

It's just Midwests way to try to show expansion without having to actually add any aircraft. The only expansion they have done is to outsource regional flying to another carrier. (Skywest). They can't afford to aquire any aircraft for their own wholly owned. (Skyway) They are adding two MD-80's on short term lease. YX is cash shy and can't afford to finance any aircraft right now. They have always been in their own little niche. The only real competion was from Northwest and that has been slim to none since Northwest's bankruptcy. The only time Midwest takes any action to their business plan is when they are threatned. aka Airtran. Otherwise they would just stick to what has always worked for them and remain stagnant. Midwest has always had a quality product but since 9-11 they are just like everyone else. With many companies running the LLC model they either need to get with the program or they will be assimilated.
I've always wanted to work for Midwest as they are my hometown airline. I recently had that chance but right now I have to pass. I don't really want to be on the bottom of the list if and when a merger happens. If the Airtran merger continues but things don't work out in MKE like they predict there will be furloughs. If Northwest aquires them just as American had a code share with TWA right before the merger it would be a great way to squash the competition and move compass in. Again furloughs. Best of luck to them.

If airtran gets yx airplanes and has more on order, where are the furloughs, sounds like propoganda too me sen. mccarthy

 

[gt1900]

Never say never, but furloughes at AAI if MEH doesn't go through? The possibility's of that are very slim.. Rumor is that IND has offered AAI between 15-20 gates at the new terminal, so that could very well be one of the backup plans.. I really don't think MKE would fail for AAI though. AAI management (even though we don't always agree with them) has shown that they do thier research, they usually know what works and what doesn't.. I 100% believe MKE would work, and work very well for AAI... So, I wouldn't worry about AAI furloughing.. Especially with the rumors that AAI is looking for even more 737's...

 

[FlyWolf]

I wouldn't worry too much about the NWA/Midwest code share agreement, we had a frequent flyer's program with them for a while and we enhanced it further in 06.

Its actually very simple, airTran promised the Milwaukee public more flights and expansion from MKE, Midwest way to answer that challenge is to give the traveling public more flight choices specially international.

What does the airTran/ Frontier code share agreement means? nothing, they both still compete in some routes out of Mem.

Codeshare agreements is just that, nothing complicated about them.

 

[slackass]

What I'm saying is that MKE is not exactly an underserved market. Airtran is talking something like 74 daily departures out of MKE to 29 new destinations. Most of those destinations I believe may be a little small for a 717 or 737. According to Tim H. Airtran moved into Dallas promising 30 departures per day but never did more than 17. I'm not saying that the Midwest/Airtran is a bad move. It would be a great fit considering Midwest wants to get rid of the MD-80s and Airtran is looking for spots for their new 737's. I'm just saying that I'm not comfortable being on the bottom of the list when it happens. I guess I'm just a little upset that my offer to work for Midwest came during this time frame. As far as Indy I think that would be a better base especially with what you say the city is reportedly offering. I've jumpseated on both carriers and have been treated exceptionally! I wouldn't mind working for either especially if it got me back home. I have no ill will to either company and am on the fence as far as the merger. I just think Midwests plans right now are reactionary not visionary.

 

[Eagle757shark]

What I'm saying is that MKE is not exactly an underserved market. Airtran is talking something like 74 daily departures out of MKE to 29 new destinations. Most of those destinations I believe may be a little small for a 717 or 737. According to Tim H. Airtran moved into Dallas promising 30 departures per day but never did more than 17.

AirTran made a smart decision to pull back out of Dallas. As everyone can remember, the one thing that changed last year was the wright amendment. When AirTran was initially talking about ramping up Dallas, congress hadn't changed the wright amendment. Once the wright amendment was modified and gave Southwest the abitlity to expand their reach out of Dallas, that killed AirTran's plan. Fighting American at its largest hub and taking on Southwest expanding out of Dallas Love would have been a disasterous move for AirTran. So AirTran made a very smart business decision after the Wright Amendment was repealed. So Tim H. was reaching again. AirTran knows it must find a new hub to place its upcoming delivery schedule. But given the changes which occured in Dallas, they made a good decision to look other places. Perhaps if MKE doesn't work, Indy or St Louis may be backups. Time will tell.

 

[Eagle757shark]

Hypothetical: Could AirTran be outbid again? Interesting that Northwest and Midwest announce code-share the day that AirTran offer expires. Interesting that Midwest moves board meeting to June 14, 2007 after Northwest comes out of ch.11. Could Northwest and Midwest be talking behind the scenes? May Northwest in the next couple of weeks after coming out of Ch.11 make a competing bid for Midwest and scuttle AirTran's plan? Northwest has been trying to get MKE for years. If AirTran is successful in their bid for Midwest, they could establish a major hub dead smack in the middle of two of Northwest's major hubs. Again, could Northwest be gearing up to make a competitive bid for Midwest to block AirTran?

 

[gt1900]

If im correct, Midwest tried to schedule their board meeting before June 14th but they didn't give enough advanced notice and the SEC made them reschedule.. I believe Midex was trying to pull one over but the SEC called them out.. So, I wouldn't worry about it too much..

 

[Lear70]

Hypothetical: Could AirTran be outbid again? Interesting that Northwest and Midwest announce code-share the day that AirTran offer expires. Interesting that Midwest moves board meeting to June 14, 2007 after Northwest comes out of ch.11. Could Northwest and Midwest be talking behind the scenes? May Northwest in the next couple of weeks after coming out of Ch.11 make a competing bid for Midwest and scuttle AirTran's plan? Northwest has been trying to get MKE for years. If AirTran is successful in their bid for Midwest, they could establish a major hub dead smack in the middle of two of Northwest's major hubs. Again, could Northwest be gearing up to make a competitive bid for Midwest to block AirTran?

Just a thought, but having a domicile within barely an hour's flight distance of two other hubs doesn't sound like a really great strategic move.

NWA always wanted MKE as more of a way to put Midwest out of business and take their customers for their international feed than any real interest in running it as a hub such as MEM...

Interesting move; I'd think of it more as a way to get AAI to sweeten the deal than any real ploy for NWA to purchase Midwest out from under us, but then again, what do I know...?

 

[FlyWolf]

Hypothetical: Could AirTran be outbid again? Interesting that Northwest and Midwest announce code-share the day that AirTran offer expires. Interesting that Midwest moves board meeting to June 14, 2007 after Northwest comes out of ch.11. Could Northwest and Midwest be talking behind the scenes? May Northwest in the next couple of weeks after coming out of Ch.11 make a competing bid for Midwest and scuttle AirTran's plan? Northwest has been trying to get MKE for years. If AirTran is successful in their bid for Midwest, they could establish a major hub dead smack in the middle of two of Northwest's major hubs. Again, could Northwest be gearing up to make a competitive bid for Midwest to block AirTran?

Eagle:

1- No, Midwest is not for sale. period.
2- TH and the BoD don't want to sell at any price. period.
3- Airtran, NWA, or whomever, they don't want to sell.
4- They won't sell their sweetheart, the company they started in 1983. They want to keep everything as it is.
5- I bet, you will see them take the company private before they sell to anyone.

Again, just my own opinion.

 

[gt1900]

Actually Flywolf... Your not 100% correct....

1. NWA could absolutly outbid AAI for Midex, its up to the shareholders to decide. Midwest is a public company, its ALWAYS for sale, just like any public company. Its just a matter of the right price..
2. Your right, but TH doesn't own the company, the shareholders do. There is a price the shareholders are willing to sell for, and it seems AAI has found it.
3. Again, your right. But I say again, TH and the board don't own the company, the shareholders do.
4. It may be thier decision not to sell, but, once shareholders vote in a new Board of Directors that will act in the way the shareholders want them too, the company is history. 3 new board members this year, and 3 next... Ie, Midex gone in about a year from now..
5. I won't say never, But, I would be very, very suprised to see Midex go private. In order for Midex to go private someone would have to buy them out at the current stock price that AAI is offering.. At that point it could turn into a bidding war if AAI wanted to up the offer.. You are not going to see many private investors buy a company with an overinflated stock price..

Heres whats going to happen folks.... Now that AAI has a list of all the shareholders AAI is gonna try and sell thier business plan on the few shareholders that they haven't been able to talk directly to.. However, those shareholders know that AAI is trying to buy Midex, so they could have made themselves known to AAI... In other words, don't expect too many more shares to be tendered by June 8th... What AAI would gain by having more shares tendered would just be more pressure towards the board and TH to change thier minds... At this point though, it doesn't matter much since AAI has 57% of the shares tendered.. You can expect AAI's 3 nominated board members to get seats at Midex. However, that still doesn't get a majority share of the board... All the 3 AAI board members would be able to do is try and convince the remaing board members (they would only need to change 2 board members minds) to change thier minds..... With a majority of the shareholders and 3 board members pushing for the transaction to take place, it would be pretty hard for TH and the board not to change thier minds..

 

[Eagle757shark]

Just a thought, but having a domicile within barely an hour's flight distance of two other hubs doesn't sound like a really great strategic move.

NWA always wanted MKE as more of a way to put Midwest out of business and take their customers for their international feed than any real interest in running it as a hub such as MEM...

Interesting move; I'd think of it more as a way to get AAI to sweeten the deal than any real ploy for NWA to purchase Midwest out from under us, but then again, what do I know...?

I think it could be interesting going down the stretch....I don't think NWA is interested in Midwest, but I do think they'd be interested in making a bid for Midwest just to try and get it away from AirTran or drive the price up.

Flywolf, I understand what you are saying. I know Midwest isn't for sale. However, I wouldn't be surprised if NWA coming out of ch.11, made a competitive bid for Midwest just to block AirTran or drive up the price.

It's funny, but history has a way of repeating itself. Back in 2004, Southwest came out of no where to make a competitive bid for ATA trumping AirTran in their quest for Midway gates. AirTran could have raised their bid, but chose not to. Could the same scenario happen again, but this time in MKE? The next 30 days will be interesting.
Now off to some Saturday fun!

 

[FlyWolf]

gt1900, I am always NOT a 100% correct

Off course Northwest can outbid Airtran and that we are a public company and I know exactly what you'r saying, but I was trying to make a point that even though we are a publicly held company our BoD don't want to sell, and its shown by not sitting down with airTran to negotiate.

There is a very good reason that Airtran keep extending the offer and not dropping the offer all together (and keep the Midex stock inflated) its exactly for what you are saying, if AAI drop the offer and it goes down to $9-10 area I bet they will take it private, they just don't want to do it at $15 and Airtran doesn't want to drop the offer and go away for now, otherwise would have went private.

From what I heard, one of the BoD have enough $$$ to buy all of Midwest stock back, forget about the rest of the members.

Also gt. do you really think that the shareholders list will make that much difference? investors are not idiots, they have been following the news very closely.

 

[FlyWolf]

I think it could be interesting going down the stretch....I don't think NWA is interested in Midwest, but I do think they'd be interested in making a bid for Midwest just to try and get it away from AirTran or drive the price up.

Flywolf, I understand what you are saying. I know Midwest isn't for sale. However, I wouldn't be surprised if NWA coming out of ch.11, made a competitive bid for Midwest just to block AirTran or drive up the price.

It's funny, but history has a way of repeating itself. Back in 2004, Southwest came out of no where to make a competitive bid for ATA trumping AirTran in their quest for Midway gates. AirTran could have raised their bid, but chose not to. Could the same scenario happen again, but this time in MKE? The next 30 days will be interesting.
Now off to some Saturday fun!

I see what you'r saying Eagle, I also wouldn't be surprised to see a NWA bid, very interesting time ahead indeed. Enjoy your Saturday night fun

Cheers

 

[CitationLover]

well MEH's market cap is holding right at the offer ~$385 million. anyone see this nut Eden whose suing MEH now?

http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=572342
http://finance.google.com/group/google.finance.657944/browse_thread/thread/27f05f99ce2c9b2e

 

[FlyWolf]

What an idiot

 

[Fly4hire]

If AirTran is successful in their bid for Midwest, they could establish a major hub dead smack in the middle of two of Northwest's major hubs. Again, could Northwest be gearing up to make a competitive bid for Midwest to block AirTran?

NW has always been brutal about protecting their turf. Remember they were the spoiler for a CAL/DAL merger a few years back. They still hold the golden share for CAL, and now have an anti-merger poison pill in their stock offering, while DAL gave up their poison pill. NW management may be ruthless with their employees, but they are even more so with competitors and vendors.

Not sure where this is going, but I guarantee it's not fluff. If NW can spoil the MEH deal it protects it's turf AND puts a big crimp into AT's expansion plans. What will AT do with all those acft on order if they don't have a place to put them?

This will get really interesting in the next month. While all the talk has been of big mergers, it could in fact be with the consolidation of various smaller LCC into legacy carriers for incremental expansion vs. the mega-merger...