Red,
DL did cut capacity somewhat, and flying opportunities go down in the Winter months. But that isn't the case in the Spring and Summer, and what happens when huge retirements start? You guys stay steady with about 150 guys a year leaving coming up here, while the legacies will all have huge blocks of people leaving. At DL there will be 4 years in a row that average over 800 pilots leaving at 65(many could go earlier). That will be called "Greenslip City." Even senior guys on the 717 will just bid with line check guys that will be giving constant IOEs to newhires, they will get paid for the trip, and can go pick up another on top of it. And that will go on for years because that will be the junior plane.
For you guys one guy retires, one FO moves up, and one guy is hired. Not the same at a legacy. And retirements mean upward movement on bigger planes that pay more, or just staying put to get senior and grab Greenslips. Productivity of lines will jump up, or number of Greenslips, which is key to making big bucks, and having 4000 pilots leave in 5 years will help. (2020-2024, with an increase each year up to those huge numbers starting next year)
Here are the retirement numbers from APC:
Mandatory retirements:
2013 - 56
2014 - 121
2015 - 169
2016 - 225
2017 - 286
2018 - 415
2019 - 513
2020 - 602
2021 - 789
2022 - 851
2023 - 809
2024 - 805
2025 - 713
2026 - 610
2027 - 514
Bye Bye---General Lee