Wasssup with 9E

[silver02ex]

My point is that if United wants out of this agreement they will move the flying elsewhere. Q or no Q.

True, but what will they replace it with? RJ's that has a higher operating cost? That beats the whole purpose of trying to find something cheaper.

 

[WMUSIGPI]

Don't put it past United (or any other airline) to piss away a ton of money just to prove a point to contractors. See Delta/Comair and ASA. Remember one of the common sayings in this industry, tripping over dollars to save a dime.

 

[RJLoser]

Are you XJ guys switching to Lido's from jepps? Can't wait for you to see the updates. I'm getting tired of the huge 1-2 hour evolution every two weeks.

 

[sinkrate]

But it's going to cost UAL alot more money to put RJ's on those routes over the Q400. It's not like they can find another company to opterate that many Q400 that quick. Even if they enter into an agreement with someone else. Airplanes has to be ordered and training has to be set up, more pilots has to be hired. All that is going to cost alot of money, and time. Look how long it's taking Go Jets to get the Delta flying going and that just transfering the airplanes from one company to another, and GJ is already set up to fly the 700.

In the grand scheme of things the lift Colgan now supplies to UCAL is a pimple on a donkeys d**k. It could cease all at once and no one will ever notice it in UCAL's revenue or profits. Evidently UCAL would like to give that fleet type a larger position in their revenue stream - and they are looking for a reliable partner to provide it.


In simple terms the current situation is ..


-The ECB - the bank that has the title to the Q 400's - has let PCL defer three months of payments to April 1
-UCAL has lent PCL some cash to be repaid on April 1.


When April 1 gets here PCL will not have the cash for either of these payments. One of two things will happen at that time


-A new agreement is announced that rolls these payments into new leases and revenue payments or

-PCL defaults on the Q400's and stiffs UCAL on the money they owe. Is that being a reliable partner?


Of course not. The ECB will repo the AC and provide them to whoever UCAL contracts with. The recent agreement enables them to do this without going to BK court - maybe. UCAL has demonstrated their willingness to pay the price to put regionals out of business many times before.


But if any one balks at these proceedings the ECB and UCAL will force PCL into BK. As a result of the recent agreement they will have an even stronger position on the creditor committee.


Delta could end all this today simply by advancing payments they will owe later in the year. They won't do this. Why? They must want PCL to end up bankrupt. If that happens the 30 Q's will be the least of the pilots problems. Delta will want an even larger chunk of your fleet and much larger pay concessions.

My guess is the PCL pilots, rather than agree to small concessions to expand the airline, will let the Q's go and let the furlough happen. That is classic ALPA - full pay to the last day, no matter who you leave behind. They will gamble that will keep them out of BK court. If it doesn't once Delta finishes with them they will deeply regret it.

 

[Ridgeback]

In the grand scheme of things the lift Colgan now supplies to UCAL is a pimple on a donkeys d**k. It could cease all at once and no one will ever notice it in UCAL's revenue or profits. Evidently UCAL would like to give that fleet type a larger position in their revenue stream - and they are looking for a reliable partner to provide it.


In simple terms the current situation is ..


-The ECB - the bank that has the title to the Q 400's - has let PCL defer three months of payments to April 1
-UCAL has lent PCL some cash to be repaid on April 1.


When April 1 gets here PCL will not have the cash for either of these payments. One of two things will happen at that time


-A new agreement is announced that rolls these payments into new leases and revenue payments or

-PCL defaults on the Q400's and stiffs UCAL on the money they owe. Is that being a reliable partner?


Of course not. The ECB will repo the AC and provide them to whoever UCAL contracts with. The recent agreement enables them to do this without going to BK court - maybe. UCAL has demonstrated their willingness to pay the price to put regionals out of business many times before.


But if any one balks at these proceedings the ECB and UCAL will force PCL into BK. As a result of the recent agreement they will have an even stronger position on the creditor committee.


Delta could end all this today simply by advancing payments they will owe later in the year. They won't do this. Why? They must want PCL to end up bankrupt. If that happens the 30 Q's will be the least of the pilots problems. Delta will want an even larger chunk of your fleet and much larger pay concessions.

My guess is the PCL pilots, rather than agree to small concessions to expand the airline, will let the Q's go and let the furlough happen. That is classic ALPA - full pay to the last day, no matter who you leave behind. They will gamble that will keep them out of BK court. If it doesn't once Delta finishes with them they will deeply regret it.

WOW!!! Are you a Pilot or Wall Street insider, I can't say how impressed I am with your vast knowledge of the inside..well done sir.

 

[xjhawk]

When UAL entered BK they had two regioanl feed contracts - with Air Wisconsin and ACA. Neither of them were willing to work for the price UAL was willing to pay. UAL ditched both of them. ACA died a slow death and then shut down - putting all of their pilots on the street. Air Wisconsin bought a contract with USAirways - but shrank significantly. Eventually SkyWest, Mesa, Trans States and Republic provided the feed UAL wanted.

Reread the latest announcement. If PCL and UAL don't come to an agreement by April first the Q contract will end. Both PCL and UCAL have ageed to that.

you left out the multi million dollar screw that United got because they could not read their own contract when they released Air Willy from their service agreement. It was enough to buy into US airways (floating them a loan). Yes they are smaller, yes they lost all their good united bases and the pilots got stuck moving to the east coast-but they were managed well enough to make it through.

I like your points after this quote about the fate of the planes-but I ask you this-Will they be able to just transfer 56 planes immediately through out the system? Where will those pilots come from? Who will pay the $25,000 per pilot to train on those pilots? Heck maybe it is worth it to get rid of the 1000 or so senior pilots at 9E who cost a lot more than the average go jet pilot. I am just saying...heck Delta could even start up another "compass airlines" for these new planes-make an agreement with their pilots to create a "B" scale and make them all Delta pilots who now can fly 100 seaters at year 1 pay.

 

[sinkrate]

you left out the multi million dollar screw that United got because they could not read their own contract when they released Air Willy from their service agreement. It was enough to buy into US airways (floating them a loan). Yes they are smaller, yes they lost all their good united bases and the pilots got stuck moving to the east coast-but they were managed well enough to make it through.

I like your points after this quote about the fate of the planes-but I ask you this-Will they be able to just transfer 56 planes immediately through out the system? Where will those pilots come from? Who will pay the $25,000 per pilot to train on those pilots? Heck maybe it is worth it to get rid of the 1000 or so senior pilots at 9E who cost a lot more than the average go jet pilot. I am just saying...heck Delta could even start up another "compass airlines" for these new planes-make an agreement with their pilots to create a "B" scale and make them all Delta pilots who now can fly 100 seaters at year 1 pay.

Delta's objective will be to reduce the number of 50 seat AC, and if they can reduce the long term labor costs on the remainder of the fleet even better. Pubicly Delta has said they want to park 50 or so 50 seat AC. With the two for one swap provisions in the service agreements that would be 25 of the 900's. There are a number of ways this could play out but they all involve reductions and paycuts for PCL. The reductions won't happen immediately - it takes time to train crews and move AC - but the pay cuts might.

My point is management is making a valiant effort to keep this out of court. The succeses so far with the EDC and UCAL are encouraging. But if it does go to BK court PCL will have burnt their bridge to UCAL and the door will open for Delta to take advantage of them. Do you really think Delta will waste that opportunity? There won't be any silver lining in this cloud like there was in the Mesaba BK.

 

[WMUSIGPI]

Are you XJ guys switching to Lido's from jepps? Can't wait for you to see the updates. I'm getting tired of the huge 1-2 hour evolution every two weeks.

Last I heard, as we cross the fence then yes, we switch to Pinnacle manuals including LIDO.

 

[Flyer1015]

you left out the multi million dollar screw that United got because they could not read their own contract when they released Air Willy from their service agreement. It was enough to buy into US airways (floating them a loan). Yes they are smaller, yes they lost all their good united bases and the pilots got stuck moving to the east coast-but they were managed well enough to make it through.

I like your points after this quote about the fate of the planes-but I ask you this-Will they be able to just transfer 56 planes immediately through out the system? Where will those pilots come from? Who will pay the $25,000 per pilot to train on those pilots? Heck maybe it is worth it to get rid of the 1000 or so senior pilots at 9E who cost a lot more than the average go jet pilot. I am just saying...heck Delta could even start up another "compass airlines" for these new planes-make an agreement with their pilots to create a "B" scale and make them all Delta pilots who now can fly 100 seaters at year 1 pay.

LOL! Are you sure your account hasn't been hacked?

 

[RJLoser]

Last I heard, as we cross the fence then yes, we switch to Pinnacle manuals including LIDO.

Getting rid of Lido's needs to be our next fight. You know..after we make sure we don't lose 1/2 our fleet and go out of business.