Was Kit Darby right???

[Vik]

No, I didn't mean Jobs > Pilots.

Pilots > Jobs (READ: Pilots greater than Jobs). Pilots have never been in demand in the long term. You might see pockets here and there of demand, but there isn't demand.

Demand leads to increases in wages and that ain't happen'n.

don't you mean Jobs > Pilots (i.e. more jobs than pilots..).

 

[mayday1]

right... and when you have a greater amount of jobs (demand) than pilots (supply) - i.e. jobs greater than pilots, or read another way, more jobs than pilots - that creates higher wages, better benefits, more recruiting, etc.

maybe I'm misreading/misunderstanding your post... but I think we'd like to see supply outstrip demand at some point (more jobs available than qualified pilots), thereby leading to the things you mention. I agree.. I don't think this is a realistic scenario in the near or long term.

 

[mayday1]

Goose Egg.. I agree with you.. that's why I'm in this game.. just a commentary on what might explain/contribute to some of the declines in commercial licenses.

 

[bobbysamd]

As Buddy Young, Jr. said in "Mr. Saturday Night," "Don't get me started . . . . "

Kit Darby's "pilot shortage" is a sophistry. Always has and always will be. Kit has been preaching for seventeen years that 40-thousand pilots will be needed "during the next ten years." Kit pushed this pablum starting in 1987 by way of news releases. These news releases, with Kit as FAPA as the source, of course, found their way into newspapers. Then, Kit started advertising in mainstream pilot magazines, and sold the professional pilot dream to the masses. In so doing, Kit got rich and made his vendors rich.

Kit's pilot shortage, at first blush, appeared plausible. New airlines sprung up and pilots were retiring. There was a hiring boom. Who would fill these seats, etc., etc., ad infinitum, ad nauseum. The proof came when one started to apply for jobs, believing that companies would beat down the doors for one's services (slighty overstated, but not really; you had to be there), only to hear nary a knock or phone ring. That, alone, made Kit's claim of an impending pilot shortage a half-truth, a sophistry.

Another item to prove that Kit's pilot shortage is a non-starter. There are stories of how Mesa Airlines pilots tried to organize in the early '90s. Larry Risley, the owner, and his lackey, Grady Reed, would trot out a big stack of pilot applications, show them to the organizers, and inform them they can be replaced.

Finally, as noted above, how does Kit count hirings? Let's say the same pilot is hired to multiple jobs; does that count as multiple openings filled?

Except for very briefly in the mid-'60s, there has not been a pilot shortage in 101 years. Think about it.

 

[Publishers]

Many o fyou need to understand though, that the statistics presented are just that, numbers, and for the most part Kit does a good job of research. The problem is that he counts a large number of jobs you do not and it often has a world component you do not see.

Take an Evergreen or the cargo guys or foreign carriers, crew leasing companies, etc. There are a bunch of jobs that do not come to your mind that are a legitimate statistic.

 

[pilotyip]

Hiring boom trend

Just another thing to support the hiring boom of June 2007, it is coming

 

[bobbysamd]

Hiring "boom"?

Just another thing to support the hiring boom of June 2007, it is coming

Yep. And so is Christmas.

In all seriousness, I hope Yip is right. I really do. I mean it. But, I ..... don't ...... think ....so.

 

[jergar999]

Regardless of whether or not the number of certificates is dwindling, I am confident that the loss of jobs since 2001 is much greater than the loss of certificates issued.

 

[Goose Egg]

Well, right now, all that is needed to get a CFI job is a pulse. Unfortunately, it gets considerably more difficult to find work the further up one goes. Getting on with a major will never be easy; it is the real or perceived pinnacle of the profession, and one does not ever waltz into the top of their respective lines of work.

I can expect the fight of my life to get there... That is, of course, if I gave a rat's $#@ about airline flying.

-Goose

 

[BornAgainPagan]

Statistics schmistics!

Don't any of you geniuses know that 67% of statistics are made up on the spot?