Was Kit Darby right???

[slick1]

At the risk of starting a new "Kit Darby debate", I'll pose the following analysis of statistics available from the FAA

This is a year-over-prior-year and a 2003-over-2001 analysis of test "volume" data. These are not test scores or pass/fail ratios. These are simply the number of people who took a test for a particular license or rating. They are all related to airplane tests, (not glider, helo, blimp, etc.)

......................'01v'00 ......'02v'01 .....'03v'02 ......2003 v. 2001
Commercial ..........+4% .......-11% ......-17% ............-27%
Instrument ...........+5% .......- 6% ......-18% ............-22%
Private Pilot...........+2% .......- 3% .......- 9% ............-11%

While the numbers don't show that there are fewer pilots, they do show that fewer people are taking the test to become Private Pilots, instrument rated pilots, and Commercial Pilots. I'm sure I'm in good company when I opine that I would like to see these numbers continue to decline. Eventually supply and demand for pilots would have to kick in and bolster pay rates.

A cursory review of all the stats suggests that ALL test volumes are down over year 2001. Of course some of these numbers are easy to explain. Combined 121 and 135 ATP's are down 38% and Turbojet F/E's are down a whopping 89%. Obviously, these declines are due to the lack of upgrades and movement as well as fleet evolutions throughout the industry.

So without getting into a "Kit Darby" debate, I'd welcome any additional thoughts or comments regarding these statistics.

BTW, the stats can be viewed at: http://av-info.faa.gov/srchAdvancedResults.asp?SearchFor=*&cmdSubmit=Search&SearchUsing=filename&ResultsPerPage=10&SortResults=date&SortDirection=%5Bd%5D&DateRange=-100y&DateStart=mm%2Fdd%2Fyyyy&DateEnd=mm%2Fdd%2Fyyyy&Category=teststat

 

[bart]

You open with "Was Kit Darby Right?" and then state you do not want to start a Kit Darby debate. I guess I could punch you in the face and not want to start a fight, eh?

I won't engage in the Kit Darby debate that you so desperately seek. I will keep it to a simple:

"Your logic is soiled."

Oh, and "have a nice day."

 

[slick1]

Uhhh,....Thanks? That was,.......insightful.

Anyone else care to comment on these numbers? Maybe someone with a cogent thought.

This really isn't intended to be flame bait. I simply want to know if any of you have noticed a decrease of people entering our field and when and how that will play into our future, given retirements, fleet consolidations, airline failures, etc.

 

[jergar999]

For what it's worth, let's hope the number in dwindling. I certainly don't want to offend anyone who is looking to get into this career field, but it would be nice for the number of opportunities and the number of pilots to be closer.

 

[Publishers]

There are a number of things that impact these statistics. Several years ago, I looked in a discussion with the WIA organization at womens statistics. They showed while there were in fact less women starting, more of those who did were pursuing a carrer and got higher ratings.

Besides our industry itself, we have to look at what the economic situation was in the country in post 9/11. Starts reflect that as much as anything.

A good point was made on upgrades as the whole system has slowed at it has always reflected what is going on at the majors. When they stop hiring, things tend to stop as far as upward movement. Many type rated pilots now are down a level in the work force. Their recurrent does not really show up in the numbers.

 

[mayday1]

It's not surprising to me that these numbers have shown a steady decline - it's the expected result given the amount of (negative)publicity the airline/aviation industry has seen since 9/11.

The decline in "private" numbers are less significant - I base that on the fact there will always be lots of people interested in earning their private, and not making flying a career choice.

Instrument and commercial (more so commercial) - these are ratings I would imagine most get because they are actively pursuing a professional pilot career. They have shown the most significant decline, and that has no doubt been affected by the awareness many have of the airline industry - mainly affected by high profile news stories about airline bankruptcy, revoked pensions, furloughs, etc.

 

[Vik]

I don't care if they showed a 50% drop.

Pilots > Jobs
ALWAYS!

Remember, there were two Wright bros and one airplane.

 

[mayday1]

don't you mean Jobs > Pilots (i.e. more jobs than pilots..).

 

[JetPilot500]

don't you mean Jobs > Pilots (i.e. more jobs than pilots..).

No, I think that's what Vik meant.

More Pilots than Jobs.

Unfortuantely, I agree with Vik, there will always be more pilots than (good) jobs.

 

[Goose Egg]

Who's Kit Darby?

Just kidding...

They have shown the most significant decline, and that has no doubt been affected by the awareness many have of the airline industry - mainly affected by high profile news stories about airline bankruptcy, revoked pensions, furloughs, etc.

Sort of a sad commentary that people believe that the only way to have a fulfilling flying career is to fly for a major airline. I always just wanted to fly, period. The equipment involved was more or less inconsequential.

-Goose