Not necessarily. You're suggesting that an air attack platform is bringing in eighty thousand dollars a month? Not even remotely close.
I flew a twin commander doing air attack for a time. The hourly rate was two fifty an hour, with an hour gauranteed a day. Do the math.
The tanker I fly doesn't bring in the amount of money a month that you describe,and I gaurantee it brings in more money than an air attack platform, both per hour, and per day.
In fact, flying the tanker doesn't bring in that kind of money, either. Now I could be wrong; you've flown air attack, and I've flown air attack for several operators, as well as heavy tankers and SEATs, as well as several years on ground doing fires (and a few seasons of chasing fires doing remote area patrols)...you're probably seen a lot more.
Do you fill in the OAS 23's and see what the company is getting? If you're company is getting eighty grand a month for a shrike, I'd sure like to know who it is. Wow. That's twenty six hundred bucks a day; what a large air tanker or medium helicopter should be getting...but an air attack? Not hardly.
Do you actually have inside knowledge or a secret source for this?
Or is this your opinion?
It's opinion, based on facts.
I returned from the national interagency fire center yesterday, after spending several days with people I can't identify for obvious reasons, and a general consensus is that while things may change, the prognosis doesn't look different for this year than last.
Of course it may be different. I very much doubt that you're going to see DC-4's out there this time. You might. But look at where we arrived last season. P-3's, several of which had structural cracks of significance during the season, were released for work. Two, and only two P-2's were put back on, with the provision that they must fly 300 hours during the season...a nearly impossible task even if they'd been given the entire season to do it...to gather the data that was demanded to release the remainder of that fleet.
With Kern gone, things might change, but don't count on it. Already the heavy tanker industry has been hit with two solid audits, one by Sandia Labs and the other by Dyncorp, both of which brought out many of the operators with flying colors (and others who refused to participate, and are now gone). That's two internationally recognized organizations doing detailed in-depth analyses of the fleets, their maintenance, survivability, and operational readiness, and both providing a green flag to go to work. After Sandia, all operational issues were addressed and improved upon, and the blessing given. After Dyncorp, the same, with companies like Neptune being given very high marks for their maintenance, aircraft, operations, etc.
What did all that achieve? Nada. A big goose egg. The political agenda hanging over the program was bigger and badder than common sense, truth, or reality. Why should that change? Two of the largest, most recognized organizations that could have been called on to do the evaluations have both stipulated that the tankers should be released to go to work, and it isn't happening...in fact the contracts were cancelled after the fact without any foundation at all. As you well know. Never the less, the contracts were cancelled, and stayed cancelled.
Minden is tanking a BAE 146. Other projects are underway. But the move has been in the push for some time now to pull radial engines off the fireline, and there won't be a big effort made on the part of the government to bring them back. Think about it. Two P-2s last year. Two. Out of how many?
The P-2 is far more likely to be resurrected than the DC-4. Certainly the 4Y and C130 won't be back...and the truth is that the P3 has more problems, more limitations, and is at far greater risk, than the C130 when it comes to the fire operations...certainly the P3 sees no less damage. (The P3 is over it's zero fuel weight just with the retardant...)
The behavior of those in the heavy tanker industry has been sluggish. Certainly some lobbying effort has been expended, but the writing has been on the wall. The efforts of the AAP have been truly sad, and the level of professionalism in that segment of the industry has gone from professional to childish in many cases. (I watched a large tanker pilot in a federal fire meeting a few days ago stand and screech and argue such that the meeting ground to a halt, and he left the meeting shortly thereafter).
Just two years ago when I suggested that the industry ought to follow the example of what Mark Bickham has established for the SEAT program with multiple levels of industry wide training and introspection annually, the industry at large laughed. Mr. Bickhams program has elevated the status of the SEATs and provided credibility that was lacking, whereas the large air tanker contracts got cancelled. Not just for that reason, but no effort at a unified industry level was undertaken at all in the LAT arena...yet folks wonder why things are as they are.
I have no magic insight into what will happen, but based on things as they are, I doubt that big, miraculous changes will occur. I hope they do. I hope that all dedicated large air tankers can be put back on line where they belong. Until the professionalism of the LAT community dropped to that of a kindergarten level, I wore a green ribbon of solidarity...though when I saw what was going on I trampled it underfoot in the retardant. I still support the efforts, from Barbara Cubins PSOB legislation to efforts by each large air tanker company to breathe life into a tenuous situation. I don't see big changes happening, though I will certainly applaud if they do.