USAirways--Merger good or bad??

[Cactus73]

The reason he didn't respond is because you took up a whole page to make a point that could have been made in two sentences. Nothing against you personally. I actually think you may have a valid argument here. You just can't rant in a letter like it's a forum post, then call the guy myopic at the end. The Fool probably said "what-EV-er" and trashed it.

Oh well. Good try though.

Juvat,

I agree. I can be rather long winded at times. I want our new airline to succeed and many are writing us off after one day.

What the Fool should really have a problem with is our debt. We have $2.5 billion in cash on hand - ALL borrowed money.

Southwest's cash is not debt, it's unrestricted.

 

[Cactus73]

Yes, we're apparently having some issues. I don't know what's up but it doesn't sound like the merger has anything to do with it.

We are having issues passing the FA evac drills. According to VP Chronic's latest voice mail, however, we are on scheduled to start proving flights in early November and expect full ETOPS certification soon there after.

The merger has nothing to do with it.

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

BTW, Jetblue is only lightly hedged for most of 06 while the
new US Airways is about 50% hedged through the third
quarter 06 with hedges purchased by AWA. Jetblue may
report a loss for the 4th quarter on the rise of fuel
costs).


Arent you only hedged at 60 dollars a barrel.....not much of at hedge?
http://www.airlines.org/news/files/Airlines_Fuel.pdf

Very informative PDF!!

The last time USAir came out of BK capacity was not falling like it is now, but oil was lower. The minimal hedge will still be good with oil this high and some others essentially unhedged.

The only worry I have is falling passenger counts with lower disposable income and rising ticket prices. If the passengers keep coming I stand by my prediction that USAir will do well the next two years.

As a stock investment, I'm not sure. But I think USAir will go down before it may go up. I won't hazard a guess right now on SWA. It depends on how popular the transportation index is.

 

[ivauir]

Cactus,
Wow, articulate and unemotional. Are you sure you are really a pilot? Great letter.

I wrote the following to Tim at the Fool when this article came out. He has yet to respond.

Tim,

In your column you rightly pointed out many challenges
ahead in the union of America West and USAirways.

What you don't understand, and industry guru Mike Boyd
does, is that there is NO comparison between the
legacy route systems and the likes of Southwest and
Jetblue.

Southwest and Jetblue chase different customers than
the new US Airways. Try this: go to www.southwest.com
and buy a ticket from Fresno, California to Dublin,
Ireland. Kind of difficult, isn't it. Well, how about
a Jetblue ticket from Portland, Maine to San Jose,
Costa Rica? Can't do it, can you?

My point? Comparing Southwest and Jetblue to the new
US Airways is misleading your readers. The revenue
opportunities available to the new airline are
significantly greater than those of your easy to pick
favorites of Southwest and Jetblue.

(BTW, Jetblue is only lightly hedged for most of 06 while the
new US Airways is about 50% hedged through the third
quarter 06 with hedges purchased by AWA. Jetblue may
report a loss for the 4th quarter on the rise of fuel
costs).

Take this example: both Southwest and US Airways fly
from Los Angeles to Philadelphia. The revenue
opportunities on the US Airways aircraft are
significantly higher due to the ability to connect the
customer on to Europe, South America, or smaller
Northeastern cities. The challenge for the new US
Airways management is to make sure that routes like
this garner this type of revenue advantage.

To compare Southwest to US Airways is myopic at best. Southwest and Jetblue are great airlines with great products, but to compare every airline to them shows that you don't know much about the industry.

Regards,

XXXXXXXX XXXXXXX
Scottsdale, AZ

 

[Wingsweep]

Observation

xxxxx

 

[HalinTexas]

This is my favorite. Heard from an SWA CA while jumpseating and again later form someone else.

Herb Kelliher: "A merger between AWA and AAA is like throwing two cats in a burlap sack, shaking it up and hoping you throw out a dog."

 

[Green]

Well we can't all be SWA...

If things ever go south at that airline I don't think there will be much sympathy from the rest of the industry.

 

[KeroseneSnorter]

Well we can't all be SWA...

If things ever go south at that airline I don't think their will be much sympathy from the rest of the industry.

It is just a matter of time. USAir (Allegheny)used to pull huge profits all the time back in their day too. As did Eastern, Pan Am, United, AA, DAL, Braniff, etc etc etc.

Only the stupid get cocky when it comes to airline profits.

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

This is my favorite. Heard from an SWA CA while jumpseating and again later form someone else.

Herb Kelliher: "A merger between AWA and AAA is like throwing two cats in a burlap sack, shaking it up and hoping you throw out a dog."

Well we can't all be SWA...

If things ever go south at that airline I don't think there will be much sympathy from the rest of the industry.

C'mon green....where is your sense of humor? I've endured jokes about SWA being a regional from my C-130 buds for quite awhile. I think SWA jokes are funny. I think cargo and legacy jokes are funny and I've always enjoyed Herb's jokes and antics. Life is too short...

 

[HalinTexas]

Well we can't all be SWA...

If things ever go south at that airline I don't think there will be much sympathy from the rest of the industry.

I'm sure that sentiment has been repeated numerous times but with a different airline mentioned. I know I've heard it about UAL, AMR and DAL.