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USAirways Debt Rating Cut - Outlook Neg.

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On Your Six

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Joined
Mar 8, 2004
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More bad news for the USAirways folks. The clock is ticking... The CEO and the CFO are now gone. An Investment Banker is in charge. Fuel prices remain very high. Good luck to all involved! Read below:



S&P cuts US Airways ratings, outlook is negative
Wednesday May 5, 12:22 pm ET


(The following statement was released by the rating agency)
NEW YORK, May 5 - Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today it lowered its ratings on US Airways Group Inc. and its US Airways Inc. subsidiary, including lowering the corporate credit ratings to 'CCC+' from 'B-', and removed all ratings from CreditWatch, where they were placed on Dec. 10, 2003. The rating outlook is negative.

"The downgrade was based on the difficult challenge faced by US Airways as it seeks to rapidly lower its operating expenses in response to mounting pressure from low-cost competitors," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Philip Baggaley. The company is seeking further major cost-saving concessions from its labor groups, who already took pay cuts in 2002 and 2003, and failure to conclude those negotiations successfully over the next several quarters could force US Airways to undertake significant asset sales and/or file for bankruptcy a second time. During this process there is also some risk that US Airways will, as part of its overall restructuring, seek to renegotiate public debt obligations. Near-term liquidity is adequate, with $978 million of unrestricted cash at March 31, 2004.

Ratings on US Airways Inc.'s various enhanced equipment trust certificates, excepting those that are insured, were lowered, as well. Downgrades were in most cases more extensive than the one-notch downgrade of US Airways' corporate credit rating, reflecting decreased confidence that the airline would be able to reorganize successfully if it were to enter a second bankruptcy proceeding. These obligations are, however, backed by modern technology Airbus aircraft that are considered good collateral.

On April 19, 2004, president and CEO David Siegel resigned and was succeeded by a member of the company's board of directors, Bruce Lakefield. Siegel's resignation was apparently due in part to unwillingness of the airline's unions to consider further labor cost concessions without a change in senior management. The turnaround plan being pursued by the new CEO appears to be broadly similar to that sought by his predecessor, and includes, in addition to cost cuts, changes in the airline's strategy and operations. Long-term prospects for US Airways remain difficult, given the company's limited route network and increasing exposure to low-cost competition. Accordingly, acquisition by another airline or some other form of close integration into a broader alliance remains the best ultimate solution for US Airways.

Ratings anticipate that US Airways will succeed in securing material labor cost concessions, and that it will retain access to committed financing for most or all of its planned deliveries of regional jets. Failure to achieve these, or a deterioration in financial results, could prompt a further downgrade.

Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect, Standard & Poor's Web-based credit analysis system, at www.ratingsdirect.com. All ratings affected by this rating action can be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site at www.standardandpoors.com; under Credit Ratings in the left navigation bar, select Find Ratings, then Credit Ratings Search.
 
Debt Rating Impacts Ability to Fund RJs

This, in turn, impacts USAirway's ability to finance ANY new airplanes - it makes it far more expensive because of the increased "risk".... Both lease and finance rates will increase now for any new airplanes to "exploit" any growth opportunities - this is not a good sign. This might impact MidAtlantic and its ability to bring on more EMB-170s...


GE financing unit in discussions with US Airways
Wednesday May 5, 3:32 pm ET

CHICAGO, May 5 (Reuters) - General Electric (NYSE:GE - News) Capital Aviation Services said on Wednesday it is discussing the financing it agreed to provide for US Airways' (NasdaqNM:UAIR - News) big regional jet order given the airline's debt downgrade.

"We're in discussions with the airline on our financing going forward," said GECAS spokesman Eric Jones. He declined to comment further.

S&P earlier lowered its corporate credit rating on US Airways to "CCC+" from "B-". As a result, GECAS has the right to withdraw financing on Embraer (Sao Paolo:EMBR3.SA - News) and Bombardier (Toronto:BBDb.TO - News) regional jets ordered a year ago. The original deal was for at least 170 regional jets, worth $4.3 billion.
 
This is very troubling for a debt-laden airline. With fuel prices still high, little airline-experience at the helm and now increased financing charges for every dollar borrowed, this could be the last straw...

Any thoughts?
 
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It's getting worse. Note another great Mike Boyd quote below:


US Airways downgrade threatens big aircraft deal
Wednesday May 5, 5:41 pm ET
By John Crawley


WASHINGTON, May 5 (Reuters) - US Airways Group Inc. (NasdaqNM:UAIR - News) hit more damaging turbulence on Wednesday when its corporate credit rating spiraled deeper into junk and threatened the huge aircraft financing deal underpinning its restructuring.

Standard & Poor's downgraded the airline's debt to CCC+ from B- and attached a negative outlook just days before US Airways confronts the biggest single challenge to its survival -- the arrival of Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV - News) at its Philadelphia hub.

"The downgrade was based on the difficult challenge faced by US Airways as it seeks to rapidly lower its operating expenses in response to mounting pressure from low-cost competitors," Standard & Poor's analyst Philip Baggaley said in a statement.

Low-cost powerhouse Southwest is poised to enter the Philadelphia market on Sunday, invading a top revenue-producing city for Arlington, Va.-based US Airways, which emerged from bankruptcy a year ago only to find the path to viability more difficult than imagined.

"The economics are getting uglier by the minute," said Mike Boyd of the Boyd aviation consulting group in Colorado.

Anticipation of the downgrade prompted US Airways to ask General Electric (NYSE:GE - News) Capital Aviation Services to amend their agreement for financing a portion of the massive jet order that underpins the airline's restructuring strategy.

A rating below 'B-' triggers an option for the GE unit to withdraw from the agreement to back the Embraer (Sao Paolo:EMBR3.SA - News) and Bombardier Inc (Toronto:BBDb.TO - News) aircraft ordered a year ago with much fanfare.

The original order was for 170 jets worth an estimated $4.3 billion with Embraer and Bombardier also providing financing. So far, US Airways has received 22 planes from Bombardier - mainly 50 seat jets -- and eight 72-seaters from Embraer.

Joseph Nadol, an analyst with JP Morgan, said in a research note that GE Capital Aviation Services does $2.7 billion worth of business with US Airways. He and other analysts said GE would carefully weigh the cost of withdrawing from the order on the rest of its business with the airline.

David Castelveter, a US Airways spokesman, said the discussions with GE capital unit are ongoing and he would not characterize them or predict an outcome. A spokesman for the GE Capital Aviation Services also confirmed the talks but offered no additional comment.

US Airways closed 12 cents lower on the Nasdaq to $2.31 ashare.

Additional reporting by Kathy Fieweger in Chicago.
 
My thoughts:

Smaller airlines are turning a profit and newer ones are on the drawing board because of increasing debt burdens at the large carriers. If they were awash in cash there would be no point.

At a certain level huge debt loads will overcome ANY employee concessions. That's the danger of concessions/business plan changes coming too late. I keep reading about big losses not being so bad because they had an operating profit. I don't really know what that means. Does that mean debt servicing, selling of non-performing assets and other "one time" business expenditures that actually affect the bottom line don't really count? Try telling that to the bond raters. That increase in debt or reduction in cash really does happen.

We've spent 2 years saying passenger loads and yields will come back. The passenger has, but not so much the yield. Pretty soon even those carriers with relatively young fleets in 2000 are going to need some new planes. Airplanes that burn 10-15% less fuel. How will they pay for them? Lease rate will be a terrible burden.

The debt that has been accumulated since 9/11 will take some carriers almost 20 years to overcome with permanently lowered RASMs.

The yields for this summer's advance bookings, from what I hear, are not too good. USAir will soon change into something totally different or be done.
 

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