USA Today

[lowecur]

This is a nice article on the cost pressures facing the LCC's. It's amazing to me that non mgt employees just don't understand that this industry needs 10-15% profit margins to survive. You mark my words, FL, AWA, and WN are in for some bumps by 2007 if the employees don't back off a bit.

Nice point/counterpoint between Arpey and Neeleman here also.

http://www.usatoday.com/travel/news/2004-07-13-low-cost-labor_x.htm

 

[MW44]

why should they back off? These employees deserve good pay and benefits. The choice in our profession should not come down to cr#p pay with good job security or unemployment.

 

[N1atEcon]

You need to quit saying "mark my words." Are you that naive to think that in 2007 one of is is going to say "man that lowecur was right."

Actually one of us might say. "Man, that Dipsh!t Lowecur was way off on that EMB." LOL

P.S. Your so good about posting acticles from these very reliable journalistic wonders, I.E. USA Today. Why dont you post from say AIN, or Aviation Weekly. There was a good article last issue about how the market is over saturated with jungle jets. The older ones are worthless and that trend will continue . Why you ask? How can that be? You tell us! You tell all of us pilots something negative for a changs about your beloved EMB. We know the answer, Do you?

 

[NuGuy]

why should they back off? These employees deserve good pay and benefits. The choice in our profession should not come down to cr#p pay with good job security or unemployment.

Nope...it actually does come down to that. There is always someone out there willing to do your job cheaper "for the love of it". In a couple of years, when the Jbluers think a bit more $$ would be nice, Virgin will be breathing down their necks working for less.

You don't think the management clones are going to work for less, do you? It has to come from somewhere.

Never do as a profession, what others do as a hobby.

Nu

 

[lowecur]

You need to quit saying "mark my words." OK. Are you that naive to think that in 2007 one of us is going to say "man that lowecur was right." You never know.

Actually one of us might say. "Man, that Genius, Lowecur was right on about EMB." I agree.

P.S. Your so good about posting acticles from these very reliable journalistic wonders, I.E. USA Today. Why dont you post from say AIN, or Aviation Weekly. OK, tell which ones you want me to post. There was a good article last issue about how the market is over saturated with jungle jets. I think they were referring to all 50 seaters & less. The older ones are worthless and that trend will continue . Really. Why you ask? Yes, I do. How can that be? Ibid. You tell us! I have no idea what you're talking about. You tell all of us pilots something negative for a change about your beloved EMB. I'll get back to you when I find something. We know the answer, Do you? Yes, Look for the order.

.....

 

[General Lee]

Lowecur,

Ok, how much do you make as an analyst? Come on, give us a round number. Ok, now cut that in half or maybe by a third. Do it. How much do you end up with?

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[lowecur]

Lowecur,

Ok, how much do you make as an analyst? That's funny. Come on, give us a round number. Do you really think I would have all this time to post while working as an analyst? I have nothing to hide. Besides, my opinions are so radical there isn't an investment firm that would even think about hiring me. Ok, now cut that in half or maybe by a third. When I was working full time as an Insurance Agent, there were years where my Commissions would dive by 1/3. It's a fact of life in my business.......there are no guarantys. Do it. How much do you end up with?

Bye Bye--General Lee

.....

 

[InclusiveScope]

Lowecur,

Ok, how much do you make as an analyst? Come on, give us a round number. Ok, now cut that in half or maybe by a third. Do it. How much do you end up with?

Bye Bye--General Lee

General,
I'm glad you don't make your living as an analyst. You would have a hard time putting food on the table. Keep your day job.

 

[TCAS]

Lowecur,

I don't know what your aviation background is and frankly I don't care. What I do want to inform you of is the truth about the manufacturer and it's products you so frequently hail as the greatest thing since hot women and cold beer.

I've got over eleven thousand hours of experience in mostly "regional" (what region is it that covers coast to coast?) airline equipment. I've flown Saabs, ATR's and four models of the Embraer line. So far hands down, not even a contest, the Embraers have been junk. It's appearing that the new 170s are not much different in quality and reliability then their predecessors. Airlines are buying them because they can lease them. At the end of the leases they will walk away from the airplane and toss the keys back to the leasing company. Unlike the ATR's and Saabs which are now being scooped up by FedEx and other freight haulers to be converted to box carriers the leasing companies won't be able to find anybody to lease the used Jungle Jets because they have no useful life left in them. And when the leasing companies can't move the inventory they have they don't buy any new jets. The EMB stock that you're so proud of then takes the slide.

The RJ's have done what they were intended for.... they filled a temporary niche while management used the events of 9/11 to leverage down mainline wages. If you're smart you'll get out of your Embraer position while the getting is good and start looking at a position in Airbus and Boeing stock. That's the next wave of growth. The only difference now is that they'll be flown at rates far cheaper then they were flown before.

One more thing... I've been in this business long enough to remember the rhetoric about how People Express, Braniff 2 and 3, both versions of Midway, Air Florida and a host of others had established a new paradigm. We all know where that paradigm ended up. Contrary to what you think, employees do get it. When this is all said and done we'll be down one or two mainline carriers just like Eastern and Pan Am disappeared. US Airways and United may or may not make it. But as you like to say... "mark my words" ten to fifteen years from now many of the employees of today's darling LCC's will be planning reunion get togethers to celebrate what once was. And to get to those reunions they'll be booking their tickets on American, Northwest, Continental and probably even Delta. And I'm even willing to bet that most of them will ride to those reunions in an Airbus or Boeing product? Are you willing to bet your Embraer stock I'm wrong?

 

[180ToTheMarker]

Good post TCAS. People quickly forget that PeoplExpress, Air Florida, and New York Air were once the "darlings of wall street." Sooner or later passengers will tire of the happy go lucky mickey mouse cutesy type style of airline and long for the more traditional ones. Mark my words

 

[canyonblue]

Sooner or later passengers will tire of the happy go lucky mickey mouse cutesy type style of airline and long for the more traditional ones. Mark my words

Hope your not betting you flying career on that one.

 

[180ToTheMarker]

I wasn't refering to SWA specifically. They are an established airline with their own niche in the leisure market and offer superb service. I think the typical business traveler desires a no-nonsense, comfortable ride with decent beverage and food/snack serivice. SWA has never gone after those fares. Ironically, even the legacy carriers are trying to copy some of SWA style and it simply can't be done. SWA has and will always have its own loyal customers and I think the business travelers are becoming disapointed by the current SWA style product that the legacy carriers are striving to emulate. Clear as mud???

 

[lowecur]

Lowecur,

I don't know what your aviation background is and frankly I don't care. OK. What I do want to inform you of is the truth about the manufacturer and it's products you so frequently hail as the greatest thing since hot women and cold beer. You have that backwards.

I've got over eleven thousand hours of experience in mostly "regional" (what region is it that covers coast to coast?) airline equipment. I've flown Saabs, ATR's and four models of the Embraer line. So far hands down, not even a contest, the Embraers have been junk. Have you flown the RJ? Also, I've heard the ERJ's have led CRJs in dispatch reliability for years. I'm also sure there are a few COEX and AE pilots who would disagree. It's appearing that the new 170s are not much different in quality and reliability then their predecessors. How's that? I know they are having problems with the Honeywell avionics(American made), but I'm not aware of other problems as yet. In fact 95% of the parts for the Jungle Jets are made in the US. Airlines are buying them because they can lease them. As far as I know, MAA has leased 30 of them from GECAS, and the other 55 are financed. B6 has been able to find leasing for their first 30, but have yet to put financing in place for the remainder. I think GECAS is out of E-jets at this point, so your arguement doesn't hold water. At the end of the leases they will walk away from the airplane and toss the keys back to the leasing company. Boy, GECAS must be stupid. Unlike the ATR's and Saabs which are now being scooped up by FedEx and other freight haulers to be converted to box carriers the leasing companies won't be able to find anybody to lease the used Jungle Jets because they have no useful life left in them. So, someone is actually turning the RJ's into box carriers? Who, and where? And when the leasing companies can't move the inventory they have they don't buy any new jets. The EMB stock that you're so proud of then takes the slide. Ouuucch!

The RJ's have done what they were intended for.... they filled a temporary niche while management used the events of 9/11 to leverage down mainline wages. If you're smart you'll get out of your Embraer position while the getting is good and start looking at a position in Airbus and Boeing stock. That's funny. That's the next wave of growth. The only difference now is that they'll be flown at rates far cheaper then they were flown before.

One more thing... I've been in this business long enough to remember the rhetoric about how People Express, Braniff 2 and 3, both versions of Midway, Air Florida and a host of others had established a new paradigm. We all know where that paradigm ended up. It's too bad they weren't better managed. Contrary to what you think, employees do get it. When this is all said and done we'll be down one or two mainline carriers just like Eastern and Pan Am disappeared. US Airways and United may or may not make it. But as you like to say... "mark my words" ten to fifteen years from now many of the employees of today's darling LCC's will be planning reunion get togethers to celebrate what once was. Do you think I'll be invited? And to get to those reunions they'll be booking their tickets on American, Northwest, Continental and probably even Delta. No, I won't be able to afford it. And I'm even willing to bet that most of them will ride to those reunions in an Airbus or Boeing product? Are you willing to bet your Embraer stock I'm wrong? Yes, look for the order.

.....

 

[SWA GUY]

180,

WN was designed to carry the domestic BUSINESS person from day 1, and still does so.

We do however carry many leisure folks as well.

Read all about it in the Company biography.

HC-out

 

[LearAv8r]

WN was designed to carry the domestic BUSINESS person from day 1, and still does so.

We do however carry many leisure folks as well.

prepare to duck!!



Lear-

 

[TCAS]

TCAS original post: Black
Lowecur reply: Blue
TCAS reply: Red


I've got over eleven thousand hours of experience in mostly "regional" (what region is it that covers coast to coast?) airline equipment. I've flown Saabs, ATR's and four models of the Embraer line. So far hands down, not even a contest, the Embraers have been junk. Have you flown the RJ? I currently fly the 135/140 and 145. I have two friends flying the 170 for US Airways. Also, I've heard the ERJ's have led CRJs in dispatch reliability for years. I think that's selective hearing on your part. I'd be interested in seeing hard numbers proving what you are hearing. I'm also sure there are a few COEX and AE pilots who would disagree. As an AE pilot with just over 2000 hours hours in them I, for one, disagree with you. It's appearing that the new 170s are not much different in quality and reliability then their predecessors. How's that? I know they are having problems with the Honeywell avionics After 18 software revisions over 7 years for the 135/140/145 there are still software problems with the system and a 1976 Cessna 182 autopilot will capture the ILS smoother and more accurately then the Embraers (American made) Who cares who made it? It's still hung on an Embraer jet., but I'm not aware of other problems as yet. Well let me make you aware of some problems on the 170... Defective emergency escape slides, improperly bonded nav and comm antennas, avionics power supplies catching fire in flight requiring emergency landings, landing gear that won't retract and landing gear doors that just open on their own during cruise flight. In fact 95% of the parts for the Jungle Jets are made in the US. Again, who cares where the part came from, it's on the Embraer Jet. Does Embraer stand behind it's entire product or only the parts that are made in Brazil? Airlines are buying them because they can lease them. As far as I know, MAA has leased 30 of them from GECAS, and the other 55 are financed. B6 has been able to find leasing for their first 30, but have yet to put financing in place for the remainder. I think GECAS is out of E-jets at this point, so your arguement doesn't hold water. I point out the fact that airlines are ordering them because they can lease them. You confirm that by telling me about 60 of the jets being leased by two airlines. You then tell me my arguement does not hold water? Show me one EMB-170 that has been delivered to an airline that the airline actually owns the aircraft. Scoot on over to the FAA data base and start plugging in the registration numbers. It will tell you who owns the aircraft. What part of this don't you get? At the end of the leases they will walk away from the airplane and toss the keys back to the leasing company. Boy, GECAS must be stupid. You are usually quite fond of pointing out the ineptitude of others, but I guess that can't possibly apply to GECAS. Unlike the ATR's and Saabs which are now being scooped up by FedEx and other freight haulers to be converted to box carriers the leasing companies won't be able to find anybody to lease the used Jungle Jets because they have no useful life left in them. So, someone is actually turning the RJ's into box carriers? Who, and where? Where did I say someone was turning RJ's into box carriers? I am pointing out that having flown other aircraft to the end of their airline service life there was still plenty of life left in those aircraft. Having flown Embraer products that are only half way through their airline service life the airplanes are becoming quite worn out. And when the leasing companies can't move the inventory they have they don't buy any new jets. The EMB stock that you're so proud of then takes the slide. Ouuucch!

The RJ's have done what they were intended for.... they filled a temporary niche while management used the events of 9/11 to leverage down mainline wages. If you're smart you'll get out of your Embraer position while the getting is good and start looking at a position in Airbus and Boeing stock. That's funny. Where I come from a comment like that is called "whistling past the grave yard." That's the next wave of growth. The only difference now is that they'll be flown at rates far cheaper then they were flown before.

One more thing... I've been in this business long enough to remember the rhetoric about how People Express, Braniff 2 and 3, both versions of Midway, Air Florida and a host of others had established a new paradigm. We all know where that paradigm ended up. It's too bad they weren't better managed. Yes it is, and unfortunately in the future the same will be said for many of today's low cost carriers. Contrary to what you think, employees do get it. When this is all said and done we'll be down one or two mainline carriers just like Eastern and Pan Am disappeared. US Airways and United may or may not make it. But as you like to say... "mark my words" ten to fifteen years from now many of the employees of today's darling LCC's will be planning reunion get togethers to celebrate what once was. Do you think I'll be invited? I guess that all depends on how you act in social situations. But based on some of your postings on these message boards I would not get my hopes up. And to get to those reunions they'll be booking their tickets on American, Northwest, Continental and probably even Delta. No, I won't be able to afford it. That's because you held onto your Embraer stock past it's prime. People often say that it's hard to pick the right stock to buy. A successful experienced inverstor will tell you the hard part is not knowing what to buy but when to sell what you bought. And I'm even willing to bet that most of them will ride to those reunions in an Airbus or Boeing product? Are you willing to bet your Embraer stock I'm wrong? Yes, look for the order. It's your money!

 

[TexaSWA]

From USA Today-

"A senior Southwest captain flying the maximum number of hours on the airline's standard Boeing 737 would earn about $150,000 a year..."


Did we take concessions that I wasnt aware of? If only we could convince the tax man that were true.

 

[lowecur]

TCAS original post: Black
Lowecur reply: Blue
TCAS reply: Red
Lowecur re-reply: Magenta

I've got over eleven thousand hours of experience in mostly "regional" (what region is it that covers coast to coast?) airline equipment. I've flown Saabs, ATR's and four models of the Embraer line. So far hands down, not even a contest, the Embraers have been junk. Have you flown the RJ? I currently fly the 135/140 and 145. I have two friends flying the 170 for US Airways. All at the same time? Also, I've heard the ERJ's have led CRJs in dispatch reliability for years. I think that's selective hearing on your part. I'd be interested in seeing hard numbers proving what you are hearing. So would I. I'm also sure there are a few COEX and AE pilots who would disagree. As an AE pilot with just over 2000 hours hours in them I, for one, disagree with you. OK. It's appearing that the new 170s are not much different in quality and reliability then their predecessors. How's that? I know they are having problems with the Honeywell avionics After 18 software revisions over 7 years for the 135/140/145 there are still software problems with the system and a 1976 Cessna 182 autopilot will capture the ILS smoother and more accurately then the Embraers (American made) Who cares who made it? I do. It's still hung on an Embraer jet., but I'm not aware of other problems as yet. Well let me make you aware of some problems on the 170... Defective emergency escape slides, improperly bonded nav and comm antennas, avionics power supplies catching fire in flight requiring emergency landings, landing gear that won't retract and landing gear doors that just open on their own during cruise flight. Maybe we could hold a comparative forum as to problems that occurred with Boeing/Airbus/Embaer. In fact 95% of the parts for the Jungle Jets are made in the US. Again, who cares where the part came from, it's on the Embraer Jet. Does Embraer stand behind it's entire product or only the parts that are made in Brazil? You'll have to let me know when they haven't stood behind their entire product, cause that would be a warranty defect. Airlines are buying them because they can lease them. As far as I know, MAA has leased 30 of them from GECAS, and the other 55 are financed. B6 has been able to find leasing for their first 30, but have yet to put financing in place for the remainder. I think GECAS is out of E-jets at this point, so your arguement doesn't hold water. I point out the fact that airlines are ordering them because they can lease them. You confirm that by telling me about 60 of the jets being leased by two airlines. You then tell me my arguement does not hold water? Show me one EMB-170 that has been delivered to an airline that the airline actually owns the aircraft. Scoot on over to the FAA data base and start plugging in the registration numbers. It will tell you who owns the aircraft. What part of this don't you get? The part that their are 185 firm orders between B6 and MAA, and their are only 60 confirmed leases. At the end of the leases they will walk away from the airplane and toss the keys back to the leasing company. Boy, GECAS must be stupid. You are usually quite fond of pointing out the ineptitude of others, but I guess that can't possibly apply to GECAS. Very true. Unlike the ATR's and Saabs which are now being scooped up by FedEx and other freight haulers to be converted to box carriers the leasing companies won't be able to find anybody to lease the used Jungle Jets because they have no useful life left in them. So, someone is actually turning the RJ's into box carriers? Who, and where? Where did I say someone was turning RJ's into box carriers? You said the following: the leasing companies won't be able to find anybody to lease the used Jungle Jets because they have no useful life left in them. So is it the Jungle Jets or just the RJ? You can't seem to make up your mind. I am pointing out that having flown other aircraft to the end of their airline service life there was still plenty of life left in those aircraft. Having flown Embraer products that are only half way through their airline service life the airplanes are becoming quite worn out. I guess you must have a death wish, and I am informing anyone that reads this board not to fly with you. And when the leasing companies can't move the inventory they have they don't buy any new jets. The EMB stock that you're so proud of then takes the slide. Ouuucch!

The RJ's have done what they were intended for.... they filled a temporary niche while management used the events of 9/11 to leverage down mainline wages. If you're smart you'll get out of your Embraer position while the getting is good and start looking at a position in Airbus and Boeing stock. That's funny. Where I come from a comment like that is called "whistling past the grave yard." Where I come from that's called confidence. That's the next wave of growth. The only difference now is that they'll be flown at rates far cheaper then they were flown before.

One more thing... I've been in this business long enough to remember the rhetoric about how People Express, Braniff 2 and 3, both versions of Midway, Air Florida and a host of others had established a new paradigm. We all know where that paradigm ended up. It's too bad they weren't better managed. Yes it is, and unfortunately in the future the same will be said for many of today's low cost carriers. Touche'. Contrary to what you think, employees do get it. When this is all said and done we'll be down one or two mainline carriers just like Eastern and Pan Am disappeared. US Airways and United may or may not make it. But as you like to say... "mark my words" ten to fifteen years from now many of the employees of today's darling LCC's will be planning reunion get togethers to celebrate what once was. Do you think I'll be invited? I guess that all depends on how you act in social situations. That could be trouble. But based on some of your postings on these message boards I would not get my hopes up. I guess you won't be going either, as you are taking your life in your hands flying the 135,140, and 145. Man, I luv a gambler. And to get to those reunions they'll be booking their tickets on American, Northwest, Continental and probably even Delta. No, I won't be able to afford it. That's because you held onto your Embraer stock past it's prime. People often say that it's hard to pick the right stock to buy. A successful experienced inverstor will tell you the hard part is not knowing what to buy but when to sell what you bought. So your saying I should sell now. Let's see who has the last laugh, providing you're still around. So tell me, will you be moving on up to mainline in the next 10 years? I bet they will have plenty of 190's to choose from. And I'm even willing to bet that most of them will ride to those reunions in an Airbus or Boeing product? Are you willing to bet your Embraer stock I'm wrong? Yes, look for the order. It's your money! Yes, it is and stop spending it for me Delores.

.....

 

[SWA GUY]

I guess they figured that we get paid by the hour, and not by the trip.

For those who do not understand the pay at WN, I guess it would look that way.

HC

 

[General Lee]

I am getting lost in all of those colors!