US Recession, it will effect your carrier

[luckytohaveajob]

http://www.reuters.com/article/email/idUSL2474133320071024

 

[GogglesPisano]

or not

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSWAT00834120071023

 

[sqwkvfr]

US Recession, it will effect your carrier

Most likely not as much as one's ability (or lack thereof) to spell simple words.

 

[CA1900]

Or use the right ones. Like "affect."

 

[DashTrash400]

Hahah I opened this thread for the sole purpose of seeing how long it took someone to correct him. Well done!

 

[Whine Lover]

Well...it could have an effect on all of our Carriers, as well as affect our Careers.

Right?

YKW

 

[luckytohaveajob]

I love you hacks who think you are so superior.

I wrote what I meant and did it correctly.

For those of you hacks with a Webster's New World Dictionary, Third College Edition, Carrier was the word I choose correctly referring to an airline.

Carrier- def. 2- a person or company in the business of transporting goods or passengers.

Now as far as the proper usage of effect vs. affect, I am referencing 100 Words Almost Everyone Confuses and Misuses from the editors of the American Heritage Dictionaries.

Effect, with an E- transitive verb or noun. I happened to use it as the transitive verb. def. 1. Something brought about by a cause or agent; a result. def 2. The power to produce an outcome or achieve a result; influence.

Affect, which would be incorrect in the context I used in the title is also a transitive verb or a noun, but fails to be the proper usage in my title's context by its definitions.

Affect- def 1. To put on a false show of; simulate. Def 2. To have or show a liking for. Def 3. To tend to by nature; tend to assume. Def 4. To imitate; copy.

So as you see affects definitions failed to agree with the transitive verb context of my title referring to a recession causing difficulty at your carrier.

So next time you English hacks decide to critique my content based on the English language verse the content of my thoughts, think again.

 

[luckytohaveajob]

Now back to the content of the thread, who thinks we are in a bull market and why?

I think we are heading into a bear market with the credit crunch, lower earnings, a real estate depression, $90 per barrel oil, tensions with Turkey and Iran, failure in Iraq and Afghanistan, a presidential election cycle involving a lame duck president, a crashing US Dollar, and a bull market long in the tooth after over six years of an up cycle.

 

[Poahi]

While I don't agree with your terminology, and the changes in the financial markets won't effect my career because I already have one, I do agree with you that we are likely headed for little or negative growth next year. That will put lots of pressure on all phases of the economy including the airlines. But since the largest (non labor) expense for the airlines is fuel, and since there is no end in sight for fuel cost increases, the airlines are going to continue to suffer. The effect of this, is going to be that airlines are going to have to operate more fuel efficient airplanes to be competitive and thin markets are going to see higher fares.

And, of yeah, LUV is going to contine to lose pricing power.

 

[Jetjockey]

I think all airlines will stop flying since people will be going back to horse covered wagons. No need for all that electronic gadgetry either. Palms, treos, blackberrys, pc's, will be usless in this 'slower' society. Toss them all in a big heap. Maybe the Amish are on to something here. I think there will be a boon for blacksmiths again. I'm looking for a good blacksmith school tommorow. Hopefully I can get hired by a shop that doesn't require me to have my horseshoeing type rating already.

Gloom and doom. Free markets and capitalism will come to a screeching halt. Then again, maybe the market will correct itself.

 

[Andy]

Goggles, I'd bet on Rogers' opinion before Greenspan's on this issue.

The housing market implosion has resulted in credit markets locking up. The ABX indices are making record lows daily - not good. This tightening of credit is going to eventually spill over to the rest of the economy.
Just take a look at MER's earnings report yesterday. I'm short the stock, so it's been a very nice payday the last two days.
I also shorted home builders and mortgage brokers in late June. It's been very profitable. I was overweighted on DSL (Downey Savings & Loan) going into earnings and made a killing - check their chart. I'm currently overweight short on CFC; they report tomorrow. Watch their earnings report and consider it a canary in the coalmine for the economy. My next big short is WM; they're looking vulnerable.

Watch what happens during the Christmas sales season. The American consumer's tapped out. If, as I expect, the Christmas season sucks, there will be a lot of hurting air carriers. And it's shaping up to be a long, deep recession.

Now, to answer the OP's question. I'm with United and was expecting to be out on the streets again (well, I'm on mil leave, so it won't hurt) before the recession's over. However, our concessionary contract may save me. The pilots gave the airline wide berth in monthly crew scheduling. The airline can schedule lineholders as low as 65 hours and as high as 89 (widebody)/95 (narrowbody). Since the airline's currently running crews near max hours, I'm guessing that they'll go down to 65 before furloughing.
Between retirements and reducing line hours, United will likely minimize furloughs.

Footnote. Wow. Did some you really think that he meant career instead of carrier? I was wondering why some of you thought that carrier was misspelled. It's not a spelling problem, it's a comprehension problem.

 

[Ex737Driver]

Goggles, I'd bet on Rogers' opinion before Greenspan's on this issue.

Beacause Rogers ran the FED and determined monetary policy for the largest economy in the world for how many years??

 

[Ty Webb]

Greenspan effects; Rogers affects.

Greenspan- effects world markets

Rogers- affects a foppish image, with silly bow ties.

 

[fly4surf]

I just paid the mortage and have 200$ till payday.
My carrier and career are questionable.

And no I didn't spend it ALL on beer

 

[CA1900]

Now as far as the proper usage of effect vs. affect, I am referencing 100 Words Almost Everyone Confuses and Misuses from the editors of the American Heritage Dictionaries.

You're still misusing it. Quoting the dictionary doesn't change that fact.

Effect, with an E- transitive verb or noun. I happened to use it as the transitive verb. def. 1. Something brought about by a cause or agent; a result. def 2. The power to produce an outcome or achieve a result; influence.

Yes. As in, "to effect a change" or "to effect a crash in the housing market." As a verb, it roughly means "to bring about." You're missing the object if you're trying to use it as a verb in that context.

Saying that a recession will "effect your carrier" is simply a misuse of the word. Saying it would "effect your carrier's demise" would be correct.

Affect, which would be incorrect in the context I used in the title is also a transitive verb or a noun, but fails to be the proper usage in my title's context by its definitions.

Not, it's a correct use of the word in this context.

Affect- def 1. To put on a false show of; simulate. Def 2. To have or show a liking for. Def 3. To tend to by nature; tend to assume. Def 4. To imitate; copy.

I don't know what dictionary you're using:

affect
–verb (used with object)

1. to act on; produce an effect or change in: Cold weather affected the crops.
2. to impress the mind or move the feelings of: The music affected him deeply.
3. (of pain, disease, etc.) to attack or lay hold of.

So next time you English hacks decide to critique my content based on the English language verse the content of my thoughts, think again.

The next time you get defensive about your grammar mistake, make sure you're correct. In this case, you aren't.

 

[CA1900]

So next time you English hacks decide to critique my content based on the English language verse the content of my thoughts, think again.

You might want to look that one up, too.

 

[PositiveRate]

Hey Andy...how's that Countrywide short working out for you? I hope you covered.

 

[LarryinTN]

I think...

Spend some time reading the articles on this site.

 

[LarryinTN]

And, of yeah, LUV is going to contine to lose pricing power.

Continue?

In a bit over a year they've gone from a max one-way fare of $299 to $349. That's a 17% increase over a period when inflation has been around 3%

The fares that I've been paying on SWA are up about 60%-70% over the past year due to the lower availability, and higher price, of the most discounted fares.

I write this as I'm waiting to board yet another completely full SWA flight out of ONT. I haven't been on a SWA flight with more than 5 or 10 empty seats in many months.

 

[Poahi]

Southwest has been doing relatively well, but even they are getting squeezed now. Like it or not, the revenue side is being driven now by international traffic and the network carriers are using regional aircraft effectively to compete with the LCC's and feed their hub operations. Delta and NWA are two prime examples. Higher fuel prices affect everyone, but where will the revenue growth be?

http://www.thestreet.com/s/southwes...alysis/transportation/10385180.html?puc=_tscs

 

[Jetjockey]

I just don't buy into the gloom and doom scenario of the economy. It will correct itself, most likely without much fanfare.

p.s. Andy. Did a limit purchase on (CFC) Countrywide yesterday at $12.50, and sold today at $17.47. The company announces a $1 billion loss, and their stock shoots up 33%. The canary is still singing away in that coal mine. What a country.

 

[PositiveRate]

Jetjockey...nice trade ;-) I hate shorts.

 

[Andy]

Hey Andy...how's that Countrywide short working out for you? I hope you covered.

Well, that one left a freaking mark. I covered most everything before the CC (it climbed during the CC); still holding a small short, but will cover that on Monday. Fortunately, it only wiped out my gains for the week. It had been a GREAT week; now it's a breakeven week.
I hate it when a company loses 50% more money than forecast and climbs >30% in a day. I still can't believe anyone would believe their forecast that they'll be profitable this quarter.

 

[Andy]

I just don't buy into the gloom and doom scenario of the economy. It will correct itself, most likely without much fanfare.

p.s. Andy. Did a limit purchase on (CFC) Countrywide yesterday at $12.50, and sold today at $17.47. The company announces a $1 billion loss, and their stock shoots up 33%. The canary is still singing away in that coal mine. What a country.

Nice trade. Glad to see someone made money today.

 

[luckytohaveajob]

Hear Jim Rogers talk first hand about how the dollar is plummeting and what effect it will have on your air carrier.

SWA can cock peck all they want around the chicken coop. The party is in its death throws now.

SWA only gets paid in dollars. International carriers get half their international fares in foreign currency. That is how an airline will survive the coming depression.

Euros, Yen, Yuan, and even Peso's are better than the dollar.

SWA is just not diverse enough to cope. I've seen billion dollar airlines lose billions in short periods of time. Hyperinflation is a bitch!


http://www.ft.com/cms/893ac9c8-757e-11dc-b7cb-0000779fd2ac.html

 

[luckytohaveajob]

Spend some time reading the articles on this site.

thanks for the link. SWA pilots are going to need some cheering up soon.

 

[Jetjockey]

Nice trade. Glad to see someone made money today.

Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while.

Next long, (VG) Vonage. They just settled their second patent infringement lawsuit. Once they get this behind them, better days are ahead. Was trading around $1.98. We shall see.

Where's that stock message board? What was that advice I read here before. Never take investment advice from a pilot, and never fly with a doctor. Something like that.

 

[Draginass]

If you're junior on the seniority list, start preparing. This economy is all smoke and mirrors and is in for a severe correction, IMHO.

 

[Jetjockey]

If you're junior on the seniority list, start preparing. This economy is all smoke and mirrors and is in for a severe correction, IMHO.

Correction, yes. Severe correction....I don't think so.

 

[Poahi]

CNBC had a show last week on the crash of '87 and I only caught a part of it. They point out that no one knows for sure (20 years later) what caused the crash - they speculated about portfolio insurance, programed trading, etc...

But ultimately, it was about perceptions.The fundamentals hadn't changed that much and the market rebounded. Those who bought when the Dow dropped 500 points made a killing.