Lampshade
Well-known member
- Joined
- Feb 3, 2002
- Posts
- 485
the last guy on the list is EV and he is #6520. "Save Dave" Odell is number 4769. 6520-4769=1751. Of that 1751, 251ish have been called back. 4769+251=5020 at U/AWA now (or in class). Of the 5020 ruffly 1800 are AWA (AWA guy please chime in here). 5020-1800=3220 U guys online.
Looking down the road:
1751-251=1500ish left to be called back. Of this the bottom 100 are "former CEL" and I would guess almost all of them will take a position. 1500-100=1400 left to make the recall decision. Of the 1400 left I'd guess 400 return, just my "wild a$$" guess (could be more but more than likely it will be less). 400+100+5020=5520 pilots when all recalls are finished and eveyone who wants to come back is online (including thoes needing to be released from j4j holds - which may take untill this time next year - my case) Between now and this time next year there are about 300 retirements between U/AWA so 5520-300=5220 pilots in one year.
Looking at fleet size: U has 220ish not including E190's and I's guess AWA has around 180. 220+180+20(E190 by this time next year) = 440 planes.
5220/440=11.86 pilot/plane which seems alittle high but close (should be around 10/plane). Either my numbers are off somewhere (I'd bet they are close) or the rumors about off the street hires are not needed. Looking at 2 years out close to 2010ish (end of 2009) there will be about 1100 combined retirements. 5220-1100=4120 just intime for the next aviation downturn and furloughs.
132AW + 226US = 358 total mainline A/C + EMB190's