US airlines: The honeymoon may be over?

[AV80R]

I do not have access to the full article, any FT.com members here?



US airlines: The honeymoon may be over

By By Doug Cameron
Published: June 18 2007 02:27 | Last updated: June 18 2007 02:27

The briefest of honeymoons may already be over for the US airline industry, quite a feat for a sector without even a marriage to celebrate.
No sooner had the industry chalked up its first profitable year since 2000 than executives started offering gloomy predictions of emerging overcapacity as, for the first time in five years, all of the major carriers operated outside of bankruptcy protection...


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[SWA/FO]

Is that how you Brown guys work. Deliver half of the article? Should I expect half of my package next time I use Brown?

 

[BoilerUP]

No sooner had the industry chalked up its first profitable year since 2000 than executives started offering gloomy predictions of emerging overcapacity as, for the first time in five years, all of the major carriers operated outside of bankruptcy protection...

...just as their concessionary, bankruptcy-driven collective bargaining agreements begin to expire.

 

[AA717driver]

The management types were able to collect their bonuses during the post-9/11 "fat" time. Now, it's time for we employees to tighten our belts and hold on for the coming downturn... I don't F'in think so.

Sorry, management, you'll just have to figure out a way to make money after restoring our pre-9/11 pay and benefits. Remember, I'm just a dumb cost unit. TC

 

[Spooky 2]

The management types were able to collect their bonuses during the post-9/11 "fat" time. Now, it's time for we employees to tighten our belts and hold on for the coming downturn... I don't F'in think so.

Sorry, management, you'll just have to figure out a way to make money after restoring our pre-9/11 pay and benefits. Remember, I'm just a dumb cost unit. TC

TC...you wouldn't seriously consider back to the airlines would you?

 

[AA717driver]

TC...you wouldn't seriously consider back to the airlines would you?

Just staying off the corporate board. Anything you say can and will be used against you... TC

 

[jetexas]

Honeymoon??
The last 6 years have been like a really bad divorce...and the b**ch took everything!

 

[magrs]

I really do have to believe the tide is turning!

I have no dog in this fight, as I have moved on to greener pastures. I just want the "chance" to return to a formidable company, complete with pre-911 wages + a post 2007 cost of living allowance.

APA has been the first to take on the fight, I wish them well as we will ALL be watching wth an eye towards the future.

Don't settle for anything less than pre-911+cola, the industry is counting on you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Freight Dog]

TC... give me a G-V gig... and watch how fast I disappear from anything and everything pertaining to the airlines.

Ahhh.... no security lines, no ALPA, no commuting, no worries over oil prices, no airfare wars, no concessionary bargaining, no crashpads, no seniority system.....

OK... time to wake up.

Better stay where you are... or if you're not... please pass the job my way.

 

[whymeworry?]

TC... give me a G-V gig... and watch how fast I disappear from anything and everything pertaining to the airlines.

Ahhh.... no security lines, no ALPA, no commuting, no worries over oil prices, no airfare wars, no concessionary bargaining, no crashpads, no seniority system.....

OK... time to wake up.

Better stay where you are... or if you're not... please pass the job my way.

Grass is always greener, man. I have the same sentiments about leaving the bs of this industry to fly corporate... but you know what? You'll complain while you're on that side of the fence as well.

I took a COLA from airline flying post 9-11 to fly corporate. I had a blast. But against the backdrop of all the fun came a different kind of bs. I remember yearning just to be back in a "scheduled" environment and for the benefits of an ALPA-negotiated CBA, etc. Once I got back to airline flying, the honeymoon ended rather quickly. While I envy some who have the successful bizjet flying gigs, I know in the end I would find just as many reasons to want back in to the airliner side of the business if I were over there.

Each segment of our industry has it's benefits. I miss the spontaneity of corporate (flying to some exotic locale at a moments notice and staying there for days, even weeks, on end), the novelty of the clients (you start to feel wealthy when flying The Wealthy), the celebs (I don't get start struck but it's cool to chat it up with someone famous now and again), $1000 tips, 5 Star hotels, etc. But airline flying has it's attributes as well:

1) Once at the gate at the end of the day, I'm done. No cleaning up the airplane, working out the flight for the following day, etc. I'm off the plane in 5 minutes. It usually took 1.5 to 3 hours before we'd leave the plane after a long international flight so that we could clean up and plan the next trip.

2) Schedule. Some corporate outfits give you a nice sched... most don't.

3) After 10 years, hopefully, the senority starts to finally pay off and mean something. Often in Corporate, after 10 years you're on your 3rd or 4th gig.

4) A union to protect your job. OK, ALPA has done an abysmal job over the past 6 years but, hey, I'd rather have a union than no union. Pilots, especially in corporate, can be ruthless. Our union protects us from each other.

5) Free travel. I don't really use it all that much but it's nice to know it's there if I need.

6) Retirement.... wait, no... they took that away and gave us a new plan... which I'm sure they'll take a year before I retire.

7) Big equipment. I don't realy care what I fly but I have noticed the bigger the plane the more comfortable the cockpit. Hey, if I'm gonna' be stuck up there for half my life it might as well be nice.

8) Hmmmmm.... I wanted to make this list at least 10 items but I'm running out of reasons to be grateful.

 

[Freight Dog]

Good points Worry... and you're right - everything is a tradeoff.

In my position and with respect to my airline, I'd happily trade it for a decent G-V gig.

Personally, I don't care for seniority. Look at USAirways guys. 18 years or so in the right seat of an Airbus. Oh, how nice it would be if they could use those years of experience and make a move to another airline without missing a beat in pay or better yet - make more money. Unfortunately, seniority system doesn't reward experience outside of your employer - only date of hire and even that is questionable should any merger occur. I notice you have a G-V type... if you're currently flying it and your employer goes belly up, are you going to go sit in the right seat of a G-V making $25,000/year at another outfit?

Free travel? Standby or jumpseat - works great for a single guy. Try it with the family. Naw... pay me well, and I'll buy our own tickets instead.

You have a point about union somewhat protecting us from each other, but
'abysmal' doesn't even begin to describe ALPA.

Now... would I jump ship for anything? No way. But give me a 91 gig flying a heavy bizjet or even 91/135 that pays well and treats its employees well, and I'd most likely pack it up.

 

[AA717driver]

D@mn! Not even dead yet and they're throwing dirt on me and picking over my belongings...

Whymeworry--Good synopsis of why some prefer airlines. I'm sure others could write a similar post on why corporate is better. I just think you have to look at your individual situation.

Is money the most important thing? Job security--ok, scratch that! Time off? Schedule? Neither side of the business gives you everything, IMO. It's just where you're more comfortable. TC

 

[wolfpackpilot]

TC... give me a G-V gig... and watch how fast I disappear from anything and everything pertaining to the airlines.

Brother I did and it was the best move ever. I cant even begin to explain it.

 

[AV80R]

Is that how you Brown guys work. Deliver half of the article? Should I expect half of my package next time I use Brown?

Sorry, I started by saying: "I do not have access to the full article, any FT.com members here?"

Too cheap to join, was hoping someone here was a FT member.

And hey - what do you mean half of your package? Whenever I fly on you guys I only get half the seat!? Strangely enough there's always a 200 pounder sitting right next to me taking up half of my seat with one of her butt cheeks. Just kidding of course. Well, kind of…:beer:

 

[On Your Six]

If I were a regional pilot or a junior LCC/legacy pilot I would definitely consider applying to Netjets right now - they're hiring quite a few pilots this year. Why? Because both fractional and 135 flying are exploding due to the terrible cluster f@ck known as airline travel for business passengers. Who would possibly fly the airlines if they had the money/justification to go directly to their destination without all of that hassle?

There will always be wealthy people out there willing to spend their money on private airplanes - especially as airline service gets worse. Netjets has a schedule, very nice airplanes, a great reputation (thanks Warren Buffet) and a strong union. If I didn't enjoy my current 91 gig so much I would be applying myself. I can't see how flying for LCCs these days provides much job security (with the intense price competition and increasing costs) and I would think Netjets and some of the other fractionals provide a bit more job security over the long term.

 

[Freight Dog]

NetJets FO pay is too low, and upgrades are forecast around 3-5 years.

Start everyone at 1st year captain rates, go up the captain's pay and now you're talking good deal.

 

[Scrapdog]

TC... give me a G-V gig... and watch how fast I disappear from anything and everything pertaining to the airlines.

Ahhh.... no security lines, no ALPA, no commuting, no worries over oil prices, no airfare wars, no concessionary bargaining, no crashpads, no seniority system.....

OK... time to wake up.

Better stay where you are... or if you're not... please pass the job my way.

Dude, you just described flying jets in the military - best job in the world, hands down. Why do you think so many mil dudes are on military leave serving their country? Just replace "G-V" with F15/F16/F22/KC10/C5, etc...

There is no need to wake up.

 

[johnsonrod]

If I were a regional pilot or a junior LCC/legacy pilot I would definitely consider applying to Netjets right now - they're hiring quite a few pilots this year. Why? Because both fractional and 135 flying are exploding due to the terrible cluster f@ck known as airline travel for business passengers. Who would possibly fly the airlines if they had the money/justification to go directly to their destination without all of that hassle?

There will always be wealthy people out there willing to spend their money on private airplanes - especially as airline service gets worse. Netjets has a schedule, very nice airplanes, a great reputation (thanks Warren Buffet) and a strong union. If I didn't enjoy my current 91 gig so much I would be applying myself. I can't see how flying for LCCs these days provides much job security (with the intense price competition and increasing costs) and I would think Netjets and some of the other fractionals provide a bit more job security over the long term.

I'm trying, I'm trying... Get me out of 121 flying!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The low-cost industry is going to become a blood bath and the regionals are all going for lowest-cost to attract the legacy feed.

I just read that the percentage of millionnaires in the US increased by 11% last year - Netjets will have plenty of customers (especially due to the worsening airline service, delays, upcoming labor strikes, etc.).

 

[tmac3333]

Scrapdog --

Best job in the world? 15 month deployments proposed by the SECDEF to charming places like Korea, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Qatar away from the wife and kids? Getting shot at all the time? Makes a 6 day reserve or 4 day trip at CAL seem like a piece of cake. "Doing more with less" is the new mantra with VSP and people are leaving in droves and getting paid to do it. 12+ hour days with a lot of staff work and flying just enough sorties a week to keep currency....that certainly doesn't seem like the best job in the world. Now with the proposal for fighter guys coming from UPT to fly 1 year with their active duty unit and then go to UAVs.....best job in the world? I don't know how it is in your guard unit, but if it was that good, why didn't you stay on active duty or there as a full-timer? People are on military leave because it benefits the individual to do so or their unit called them up. Look at CAL...I think you see a lot of people on mil leave during the 1st year because they can make $80K tax free or $25-30K without it at CAL. As the pay gets better, the mil leave usage goes down. The military has it's own issues...comparing mil to G-V gig, come on now.

 

[Scrapdog]

Scrapdog --

Best job in the world? 15 month deployments proposed by the SECDEF to charming places like Korea, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Qatar away from the wife and kids? Getting shot at all the time? Makes a 6 day reserve or 4 day trip at CAL seem like a piece of cake. "Doing more with less" is the new mantra with VSP and people are leaving in droves and getting paid to do it. 12+ hour days with a lot of staff work and flying just enough sorties a week to keep currency....that certainly doesn't seem like the best job in the world. Now with the proposal for fighter guys coming from UPT to fly 1 year with their active duty unit and then go to UAVs.....best job in the world? I don't know how it is in your guard unit, but if it was that good, why didn't you stay on active duty or there as a full-timer? People are on military leave because it benefits the individual to do so or their unit called them up. Look at CAL...I think you see a lot of people on mil leave during the 1st year because they can make $80K tax free or $25-30K without it at CAL. As the pay gets better, the mil leave usage goes down. The military has it's own issues...comparing mil to G-V gig, come on now.

You certainly have a different outlook on it than me. 15 month deployments and getting shot at are no fun, but are part of the deal the day you sign the dotted line. There is nothing hidden when you put your John Hancock down to serve your country. Again, best job in the world...and wouldn't have it any other way. The military and the ANG/Reserves are still a voluntary commitment, last time I checked. If you're that disenchanted with it, the solution is very simple. Everytime I put my military uniform on and put on all my gear to go fly a supersonic jet...to this day, I still feel a tinge of pride that is unmatched in any other profession. Do I agree with the 12 hour bullsh*t and all the queep? Of course not. Do I agree with the 1 year fighter gig and then go on to the Predator? Of course not. But it comes with the territory...and the CSAF's current outlook (which I don't agree with either). You can take your G-V gig anyday.

And why am I not on active duty or at my unit as a full timer? Family reasons...to keep it short. However, I DO like CAL and I think they have a good outlook. And I'm certainly not on mil leave to screw the company, however I'm on fulltime orders because my unit needs me during this time.

P.S. My first F-15 squadron commander on active duty sat us all down and said "Gentleman, flying jets in the military is an priveledge, not a right. That priveledge is given to you by the citizens of the US. If you remember that, you'll never forget the reason why you put on that uniform." Again, if you're not happy tmac, the solution for you is very simple (if indeed you still are in the military).

 

[BoilerUP]

Not everybody can fly for the military, despite their willingness and best efforts to do so. My three medical DQ's, culminating with a bust at Brooks for ocular hypertension three weeks prior to AMS for a Guard 130 slot is proof of that.