US Air furlough/recall survey......

[DougsRule]

md80dvrr,

I go back and re-check my numbers. But still, the retirements will be large. I remember seeing numbers of 250 to 400 per year starting in 2007 or so. Plus add on a large number of medical issues (from stress?) and the numbers increase.

I recheck my AAA retirement sources when I get home off this trip

 

[jetfo]

US East and West Retirements

By 2012 43.21% of AAA active today and 17.64% of AWA will have to retire, without considering medicals, if the age 60 rule is still in place.
Of the furloughed group, 31.25% will have to retire by 2012 if the age 60 rule isn't changed. By the way, almost 2/3 of the furlough list are 99 or later hires with little accumulated seniority at AAA and little time invested at AAA.
So that would amount to at least 1,300 pilots retiring from US East, at least 320 pilots at US West and at least 600 of the current furloughees.
The real numbers including medicals, early outs, etc. will be larger, with probably 2000 leaving by 2012 and less that 1/3 of the furloughed guys coming back now numbering about 1400. That is if there is no change in the age sixty rule.

 

[DougsRule]

EXCELENT post JETFO! Thanks for the info…what did you use for your source? I’d like to cross-check it against my source for validity.

 

[surfnfly]

What about the guys that AWA hired after the merger was announced in 2005. Should they get the cushion of all the AAA furloughed guys, I mean at the least give us time in service credit which is more time than they have.

 

[TWA Dude]

What about the guys that AWA hired after the merger was announced in 2005.

That depends on the snapshot date. I don't recall ever hearing which date it is exactly but since AWA hiring stopped shortly after the announcement I would assume they won't be treated as a separate category.

 

[AA717driver]

.....

 

[Ty Webb]

I am sure that those Airways guys hired in '99 that you say "have little invested in the company" would disagree. I would say being furloughed for much of the past 7 years is worse than working those past 7 years.


.

 

[Saabslime]

The last class at AWA started in April 05. I don't think the merger was officially announced until May and not a done deal until September so there aren't any AWA guys that were hired after the merger was announced.

 

[m80drvr]

Doug you may be correct, my numbers are for the TOTAL AAA pilot pool not just the active ones. I am using the chart from the AAA MEC website as my reference.

D

 

[Crzipilot]

If you scroll to the right of that chart. you'll find a 3rd column that shows the retirements of just the active guys. I posted the numbers a month or so ago....I'll see if I can find it...

 

[Crzipilot]

retirement numbers:

US(tot) cum % AWA cum % US (active)cum %

2006 158 158 3.29% 2006 34 34 1.81% 2006 112 112 4.11%
2007 228 386 8.03% 2007 43 77 4.10% 2007 169 281 10.32%
2008 177 563 11.71% 2008 46 123 6.56% 2008 143 424 15.57%
2009 232 795 16.54% 2009 47 170 9.06% 2009 185 609 22.36%
2010 194 989 20.58% 2010 52 222 11.83% 2010 163 772 28.34%
2011 246 1235 25.70% 2011 44 266 14.18% 2011 191 963 35.35%
2012 267 1502 31.25% 2012 65 331 17.64% 2012 214 1177 43.21%
2013 283 1785 37.14% 2013 51 382 20.36% 2013 220 1397 51.28%
2014 289 2074 43.15% 2014 77 459 24.47% 2014 231 1628 59.77%
2015 289 2363 49.17% 2015 69 528 28.14% 2015 206 1834 67.33%
2016 292 2655 55.24% 2016 68 596 31.77% 2016 185 2019 74.12%
2017 255 2910 60.55% 2017 66 662 35.29% 2017 159 2178 79.96%
2018 261 3171 65.98% 2018 85 747 39.82% 2018 162 2340 85.90%
2019 209 3380 70.33% 2019 78 825 43.98% 2019 112 2452 90.01%
2020 222 3602 74.95% 2020 88 913 48.67% 2020 113 2565 94.16%

 

[BenderGonzales]

I wonder why US Airways can't run a phantom bid to determine how many vacancies they will require. Then recall until they fill the number of vacancies.

THEN re-run the bid with the new names. That should prevent the 18 month seat-lock release from allowing a junior pilot to bid higher paying equipment ahead of a senior pilot who is still on the street.

 

[3BCat]

And what of the twenty year, 50+ year old F/O, who will be flying with seven year, 30+ year old Captains for the remainder of his career?

I don't see a lot of guys jumping at the chance to swim in that quagmire. As for me:

1) Definetly not.
2) Not sure.
2a) Wait as long as possible.

 

[Swaayze]

They should just run the vacancy bids to include all pilots holding a U seniority number. Then if a furloughee can hold a given vacancy he's recalled. If he cannot hold one he continues on furlough. This would honor seniority and allow furloughees to pick their recall seat and domicile. At first thought I don't see how it would be a drain on the company at all.

Basically you'd have to be confident that you'll get a 73/AB slot w/in about 18 months from now to bypass with expectation of going back to the first available 73/AB slots.

 

[PHXFLYR]

And what of the twenty year, 50+ year old F/O, who will be flying with seven year, 30+ year old Captains for the remainder of his career?

I don't see a lot of guys jumping at the chance to swim in that quagmire. As for me:

1) Definetly not.
2) Not sure.
2a) Wait as long as possible.

Do you know how sick we are of hearing that assinine statement? For your info I've been at AWA since the late 90's and have yet to find that "30 year old Capt with 7 years senority" you guys just can't seem to stomach flying F/O for all because you were once a Captain at the "old USAir" at one point in your career. As a matter of fact most of the guys and gals I have flown with are comfortably over the age of 40. FYI, average age of a typical new hire class at AWA in the time frame 1996-1998 was closer to 40 years old. Seems the company was getting tired of hiring 25-30 year old pilots and training them only to have them go to the proverbial "greener pastures" that were available to them prior to Sept 11th,although I can't blame them for doing so. So most of our classes have had a larger proportion of older pilots than what you may have experienced in your new hire class many years ago. Enjoy your new job.

PHXFLYR

 

[DougsRule]

Doug you may be correct, my numbers are for the TOTAL AAA pilot pool not just the active ones. I am using the chart from the AAA MEC website as my reference.

D

Your numbers look vaild. I was going on old info from the MEC of 1999. I guesstimated the numbers at B6, FL, and WN. I figure most of them won't be coming back...you never know though.

I came about my numbers by trying to figure out when upgrade into the E-190 would be.

But...with fuel at $72 a barrel, law school doesn't look to bad these days.

 

[DougsRule]

I can't find the link to the on the ALPA website. Where the heck is it...or have I been furloughed again!!

 

[DougsRule]

retirement numbers:

US(tot) cum % AWA cum % US (active)cum %

2006 158 158 3.29% 2006 34 34 1.81% 2006 112 112 4.11%
2007 228 386 8.03% 2007 43 77 4.10% 2007 169 281 10.32%
2008 177 563 11.71% 2008 46 123 6.56% 2008 143 424 15.57%
2009 232 795 16.54% 2009 47 170 9.06% 2009 185 609 22.36%
2010 194 989 20.58% 2010 52 222 11.83% 2010 163 772 28.34%
2011 246 1235 25.70% 2011 44 266 14.18% 2011 191 963 35.35%
2012 267 1502 31.25% 2012 65 331 17.64% 2012 214 1177 43.21%
2013 283 1785 37.14% 2013 51 382 20.36% 2013 220 1397 51.28%


Thanks for this post! Could I ask what your source is?

I guesstimated 5 years... I was off by 2.

BTW... what is the hire date of the last AWA Captain?


By the way things look in a year or so I might see some familar faces from the PIT Training center. Good Luck to everybody.

 

[Crzipilot]

Those numbers came from AAA alpa. They have a little chart showing the retirements etc......Think those numbers are effective as of Mar 06

 

[ableone]

No....the snapshot date has already passed. Even if all of the furloughees return to work tomorrow, when the arbitration is underway, we will all still be considered "furloughed" pilots. The snapshot is the picture of the two airlines on a specific date. They have to start somewhere, so they pick a date and take those numbers.

I believe that the "snapshot" is nothing more than urban legend. The 190 is something that you should consider for two reasons.

1. Look at it from the arbitrators perspective - will he treat someone flying the 190 exactly the same as someone still on furlough? I don't know the answer but I would guess you would be better off on the active list.

2. After the initial recall to the 190 a 737 or 320 vacancy occurs and is put out to bid. If you are on furlough you can not bid on any vacancy - you are an inelegable bidder. You may delay your return to flying the equipment/pay you desire if you bypass.

 

[BenderGonzales]

Could work the other way too.

Even if you're able to bid a piece of "mainline" equipment if the 737s are parked you could be bumped back to the E190 on reserve indefinately.

On reserve...in Philly... on those payscales?

 

[TWA Dude]

I believe that the "snapshot" is nothing more than urban legend.

Might want to ask your favorite Merger Committee member about that.

 

[mamba20]

Being an FO at a wholly owned carrier that has the J4J program I think that if you guys especially the JJ's turn down your recall then your slot should be offered to someone at either PSA or PDT, based upon senority and a successful interview of course. Thats a bunch of crap for you, especially the JJ's not to take it! Your stealing an upgrade from someone who is barley making a living.

 

[surfnfly]

Being an FO at a wholly owned carrier that has the J4J program I think that if you guys especially the JJ's turn down your recall then your slot should be offered to someone at either PSA or PDT, based upon senority and a successful interview of course. Thats a bunch of crap for you, especially the JJ's not to take it! Your stealing an upgrade from someone who is barley making a living.

Why should we be forced to take another paycut again of about $10-15 hr. Then we would barley be making a living! most have families to provide for.

 

[mamba20]

Um, I have a family to provide for as well. Why do you assume that I am some kid that dosent?

 

[BeCareful!]

Mamba -

I believe what you are talking about falls under the heading of "FlowThru."

Why don't you address your ALPA leadership and discover what they are really doing to secure such an agreement? I think the answer, if they are honest about it, will disappoint you.

 

[ableone]

Might want to ask your favorite Merger Committee member about that.

I have. According to them (AWA) there is no seniority list snapshot. They are still working on exchanging certified lists.

 

[dollacrackho]

Mamba -

I believe what you are talking about falls under the heading of "FlowThru."

Why don't you address your ALPA leadership and discover what they are really doing to secure such an agreement? I think the answer, if they are honest about it, will disappoint you.

thats kind of a cryptic answer. care to elaborate

 

[mamba20]

He means that there will never be a flow through for us. Our pilot group can't agree with itself on anything let alone working something out with mainline MEC. All we/they do is bicker back and foreth to each other about the JJ program.

 

[PA-22]

Most if not all the 190's will be flying out of PHL. The company is probably going to have to hire off the street for right seat positions in the 190. I doubt any furloughed guys would want it and it's to big of a paycut for any on the active list.

I also doubt any active F/O will go as an F/O either, so... if they hire off the street then those guys are going to be stuck forever as F/Os and nobody will take that either.
I guess we'll have to fly them single pilot, Doug will be happy.
Colt.