That's very difficult to say, and depends on what happens with every new day. In the past, some have been surprised when upgrade suddenly went very junior. Right now, I don't see anything on the horizon that would cause this to happen again.
Brasilias are gradually being retired, and every one that goes away means a few less EMB crews are needed. This cancels out a portion of the growth. Since all the growth has been jets, the majority of upgrades have been in the jet, and they're going fairly senior. There have even been a few junior Brasilia captains who put bids in for downgrade to RJ right seat because they can make almost as much money AND have a life (i.e. hold a line).
My own guess given what I know as of TODAY: 2 to 4 years
I just finished CRJ training there, and most of the upgrading Capts were around 4 years. There were a couple with just under 3, and they got it because they were willing to go to ORD. I expect that trend will continue as ORD ramps up. Most SKW pilots don't want to go anywhere near Chicago. Really though, with all of the uncertainty at UAL/DAL, it is just anyone's guess how long the rapid expansion at SKW will last.
I'm one of those really junior EMB captains and think almost daily whether or not to downgrade to the CRJ FO seat. I don't think I'll get off of reserve for at least another 1.5 years from the looks of it, and am pretty tired of 10 or less days off and being schedulings, well b!tch.
From the latest EMB CA bid award, the most junior CA award has 2.5 years seniority and is going to IAH, the most junior base.
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