By Shara Tibken
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Airline shares soared Tuesday after United Airlines parent UAL Corp. (UAUA) reported sharply higher passenger-unit revenue in January.
Late Monday, the parent of United Airlines said passenger-unit revenue--a key metric of the amount taken in for each passenger flown a mile--rose 9.5% to 11.5% in January compared with a year ago.
UAL recently pledged to provide more data in its monthly traffic reports. Tuesday, it disclosed its unit revenue data for the past two years and explained how its unit revenue changes in the first quarter of 2009 were worse than the industry average. In January 2009, for instance, United's unit revenue declined 6.7%, four points worse than the industry's unit revenue results. In February 2009, it had unit revenue results that were three points worse than the industry, and in March 2009 they were 1.2 points worse, year over year.
"The bottom line is United's numbers got the group going because analysts [and investors] think as United goes, so goes the industry," Jesup & Lamont analyst Helane Becker said, adding the numbers were better than expected.
She said United's numbers turned bad before the rest of the group as it has more exposure to international, premium business class traffic. And now United has reported better results, suggesting the rest of the industry could soon follow suit with improving numbers.
"We're totally seeing a recovery in the group," Becker said. "We should start to see the numbers come through in the next quarter or two."
In recent trading, UAL soared 16% to $15.17, while AMR Corp. (AMR) jumped 9% to $7.98. Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL) climbed 9.2% to $12.29, and Continental Airlines Inc. (CAL) rose 8.5% to $18.84. JetBlue Airways Corp. (JBLU) gained 7% to $5.06, and US Airways Group Inc. (LCC) grew 7.3% to $6.36. The general market also gained strongly Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average recently up about 200 points.
JPMorgan, meanwhile, hiked 2010 per-share earnings estimates for UAL to $1.99 from $1.23 after the airline's strong January revenue. The firm, which is very confident in a recovery for U.S. airlines this year, says it's close to upgrades for AMR, US Airways and UAL, even as shares trade at a discount to historical levels. The firm said Continental, Delta and Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) are likely to rally, but "in our view, all three are already reasonably valued."
In other industry news, Japan Airlines Corp. (JALSY, 9205.TO) chose Tuesday to keep its ties with AMR's American Airlines rather than strike a new alliance with Delta Air Lines. The decision capped a fierce, months-long battle between the two leading U.S. airlines over Japan's ailing national carrier. Despite its financial woes, JAL remains Asia's largest carrier by revenue, offering entry into the world's second-largest economy and an extensive route network through other parts of Asia.
"The Japanese news is really good news for American, but doesn't affect the rest of the space," Jesup & Lamont's Becker said.
She added it would have been bad for American if JAL didn't stay with the airline, but for Delta, it's "almost a non-event."
"The addition of JAL would have given Delta the strongest position of any U.S. carrier in Japan, but we think the alliance would have had a great deal of trouble getting antitrust immunity," Standard & Poor's Equity analyst Jim Corridore said in a note.
-By Shara Tibken, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2189;
[email protected]
(Susan Carey and Ann Keeton contributed to this report.)