United Q1 $542M loss

[ualdriver]

You can cut the cash burn in half by removing the special dividend and profit sharing. Something tells me that there won't be any profits to share next year. Still, $300M/quarter is >$3M/day. If that keeps up, UAUA will be back in BK in less than a year.

Andy-

Where are you getting that cash decreased by 650M as you stated in a previous post? I'm missing that? I'm looking at UAL's Condensed Statements of Consolidated Cash Flows that they just released today, and I'm not seeing a figure resembling that one or even adding up to that figure?

I see that cash/short term investments for the YEAR of MAR 31 2007 to MAR 31 2008 decreased by 445M. I see that total cash (restricted and unrestricted) went down by 573M for the YEAR of MAR 31 2007 to MAR 31 2008. And almost half of those figures was a dividend they didn't even need to pay.

And for the quarter (this quarter), I see that cash went down 250M for that ridiculous dividend payment and 182M for debt repayment and 80M for operations.

So although these results absolutely suck, I'm a little skeptical of your claim that we couuld be in bankruptcy by the end of the year (barring something even worse happening to the industry), considering we have over 2.9B in unrestricted cash and 3B in assets (according to Brace) to borrow against and you're extrapolating that 300M dollars/quarter based on a traditionally weak quarter (1Q) and I assume an unecessary dividend payout.

As you mention, we probably won't be seeing profit sharing, and I would hope(!) that we're not going to see that second 250M dividend distribution. Just those two things alone would have taken a significant chunk out of our negative cash flow.

 

[pipe]

An ex-oil man. He can't even get the hedges right. What a complete incompetent.

The ONLY thing this azzhole does well is pay himself. He does that better than anyone on the planet.

PIPE

 

[Andy]

You think that Airtran will be here next year? Not too sure I'd take that bet. It's going to be an ugly year for all of us.

It's going to be tough times all the way around. Unlike the last downturn, everyone's cutting capacity. No carrier is using this as an opportunity to increase expansion.

 

[PCL_128]

Good luck to everyone at UAL. Things are looking ugly everywhere. I'm not sure that any of us are safe expect for the UPS and FedEx pilots.

 

[Rez O. Lewshun]

Good luck to everyone at UAL. Things are looking ugly everywhere. I'm not sure that any of us are safe expect for the UPS and FedEx pilots.

Aside from the Civ vs Mil debate at Fedex... they are feeling the pinch too....

 

[Andy]

Andy-

Where are you getting that cash decreased by 650M as you stated in a previous post? I'm missing that? I'm looking at UAL's Condensed Statements of Consolidated Cash Flows that they just released today, and I'm not seeing a figure resembling that one or even adding up to that figure?

I see that cash/short term investments for the YEAR of MAR 31 2007 to MAR 31 2008 decreased by 445M. I see that total cash (restricted and unrestricted) went down by 573M for the YEAR of MAR 31 2007 to MAR 31 2008. And almost half of those figures was a dividend they didn't even need to pay.

And for the quarter (this quarter), I see that cash went down 250M for that ridiculous dividend payment and 182M for debt repayment and 80M for operations.

So although these results absolutely suck, I'm a little skeptical of your claim that we couuld be in bankruptcy by the end of the year (barring something even worse happening to the industry), considering we have over 2.9B in unrestricted cash and 3B in assets (according to Brace) to borrow against and you're extrapolating that 300M dollars/quarter based on a traditionally weak quarter (1Q) and I assume an unecessary dividend payout.

As you mention, we probably won't be seeing profit sharing, and I would hope(!) that we're not going to see that second 250M dividend distribution. Just those two things alone would have taken a significant chunk out of our negative cash flow.

End of Q4 cash/equivalents was $3.55B; end of Q1 cash/equivalenets is $2.9B. I didn't pull any numbers apart, so that was first WAG back of envelope.

When we went into BK the last time, $2B was the critical number. Less than that, we couldn't come out the other side.
I know Q1's a weak quarter, but how much has the price of oil risen this quarter?
The unencumbered assets help.
The lack of deliveries help.
The aircraft coming off of lease help. (We could park more than 30 if things get worse).

I backed out the special dividend to come up with $300M. I seriously doubt that there will be a second special dividend. However, I've been wrong in the past and will be wrong in the future.

Those numbers were truly ugly. I don't see posturing for contract negotiations (way too early); every other airline's reporting bad numbers. I don't even think that these were kitchen sink numbers; I think that they were pretty straight up bad.
I'm only ~600 from the bottom so I figure that I'll be gone right after Christmas. I expect the first round of furloughs to occur this fall. Good luck to you and everyone left standing; I hope that they can avoid BK this time around.

 

[Bavarian Chef]

I think it's funny that people are throwing phrases around like "traditionally weak quarter" to defend the latest round of earnings announcements, as if the forecast for the next few is any better.

Let's face it -- they are all gonna be traditionally weak after this year, especially at these fuel prices.

 

[PCL_128]

I'm only ~600 from the bottom so I figure that I'll be gone right after Christmas.

You really think they'll need to furlough more than 600?

 

[Andy]

You really think they'll need to furlough more than 600?

There are some factors to consider with the 600 number. Although I don't know ualdriver's identity, I'm sure that he's been able to figure out mine from my posts on the UAL MEC board - along with any other UAL pilot who's curious (I haven't been secretive of my identity). So the information that I pass here will make it even easier to know who I am.

That 600 isn't really 600, it's more like 400 or less. Why?
We've got 195 newhires; almost all of them will be on the job when furloughed.
It's the other 400 ex-furloughees that is really 200 or so. A lot of them are on mil leave; a lot of them are on leave of absence.
I'm supposed to have a half dozen or so below me on the 757 at my domicile. From what I've seen, I'm the junior guy at my domicile who's not on a leave of absence.

In my RPT (returning pilot training) class, we were supposed to have 9 people. Only 6 showed up; 3 resigned.

I could see them doing an initial cut of 200 or so after summer. I could see the next cut being 400 or so after Christmas, netting an additional 200.

Needless to say, things could turn around quite a bit between now and Christmas. However, the economic data that I'm tracking is telling me that things are going to get worse, not better.

 

[ToiletDuck]

I'm not up on everything regarding this issue but didn't UAL do a poor job in during the CH11 Bk? NWA and DAL restructured while UAL just sat there.