United buys 40 EMB175s

[Jon Rivoli]

Twisting my tail? What exactly are you dreaming about? First off, I don't go that way....

LMFAO, score.

You claim you are too old to make a change to a legacy. Jon, that is your choice, but if you had 10 years to go, you'd make more thanks to better retirement (DC fund given to you by management, up to 13% of what you make each month, into an account in your name. You can also do your own 401K with 2% matching also), and you make RJ capt pay within 3 years. If retirements start to roll as planned (no age 70 rule as you stated), people will be jumping upward by leaps and bounds each year, making more by picking up Greenslips on current equipment, or bidding larger planes with higher pay rates. Great options as people retire in droves.

Blah Blah Blah. There is more to life than making money. Four days a week I do a SOCAL turn and am back in Portland by noon. I bought a new suitcase in December and I have used it like six times. I'm home with my family while you're jerking it in a hotel room. In the other half of the day when I get back from flying, I'm building houses. When the weather is good, I ride a Harley to work. When its crappy, I drive a Mini.

I wouldn't trade places with anyone. My life is good. Real good. How's your carpal tunnel syndrome?

But, some RJ Captains just want the legacy or mainline planes, but brought down to the Regional level. Thanks to consolidation and STRONGER scope clauses, that is just highly unlikely.

I don't want anything from you. I don't care if the data plate on the airplane says Boeing, Airbus, Bombardier or Mattel, it's just a tool. As for your STRONGER scope clauses, bold type is no match for economics. If you can't operate the airplanes profitably, you won't. If markets dictate the need for smaller gauge planes, someone will fly them, and it won't be you.

DL proved they could lease and then eventually buy a smaller mainline plane (717, smaller than DC9-50s) and commit them to Regional type routes flown by mainline crews, at high pay rates.

I could lease a lease a 747, that doesn't prove that I can make money with it.

A 717 will have operating costs fairly similar to an MD, yet it will generate a third less revenue. Brilliant!

And for the truely dumb out there, it is pretty standard to be given first right of refusal to purchase at the end of a lease, for the then current market. Which in the case of the 717 will probably be the value of the aluminum.

Can the economics work, you ask? How did the airline do with fees last year? Darn good. You always seem to leave that out of your equation.

While it is an additional revenue stream it doesn't change the basic equation. It's the overhead costs of the legacies that can't be amortized on the smaller planes. Costs that are far lower at the regionals.

Regardless, stay at SKW if you like it, but don't count on the legacies to fail so you can gain larger planes and a lot more pay. Extremely unlikely. Really Jon. Go twist your own tail in the corner now, and dream of the new MRJ that supposedly will come online someday. Good luck with that one...

I'm not counting on anyone to fail. I want to see everyone succeed. Focusing on areas where you can be most profitable helps everyone. Trying to eek out a profit in areas that are marginal hurts us all.

For the record, my dream involves a sailboat in the Mediterranean, not airplanes.

Bye Bye---General Lee

Arrivederci

 

[Nevets]

DAL did acquire the "smaller mainline plane" as you indicate, but another major dumped the "smaller mainline plane" to begin with.

Was AirTran operating them unprofitably?

 

[General Lee]

LMFAO, score.



Blah Blah Blah. There is more to life than making money. Four days a week I do a SOCAL turn and am back in Portland by noon. I bought a new suitcase in December and I have used it like six times. I'm home with my family while you're jerking it in a hotel room. In the other half of the day when I get back from flying, I'm building houses. When the weather is good, I ride a Harley to work. When its crappy, I drive a Mini.

I wouldn't trade places with anyone. My life is good. Real good. How's your carpal tunnel syndrome?



I don't want anything from you. I don't care if the data plate on the airplane says Boeing, Airbus, Bombardier or Mattel, it's just a tool. As for your STRONGER scope clauses, bold type is no match for economics. If you can't operate the airplanes profitably, you won't. If markets dictate the need for smaller gauge planes, someone will fly them, and it won't be you.



I could lease a lease a 747, that doesn't prove that I can make money with it.

A 717 will have operating costs fairly similar to an MD, yet it will generate a third less revenue. Brilliant!

And for the truely dumb out there, it is pretty standard to be given first right of refusal to purchase at the end of a lease, for the then current market. Which in the case of the 717 will probably be the value of the aluminum.



While it is an additional revenue stream it doesn't change the basic equation. It's the overhead costs of the legacies that can't be amortized on the smaller planes. Costs that are far lower at the regionals.



I'm not counting on anyone to fail. I want to see everyone succeed. Focusing on areas where you can be most profitable helps everyone. Trying to eek out a profit in areas that are marginal hurts us all.

For the record, my dream involves a sailboat in the Mediterranean, not airplanes.



Arrivederci

Truly funny stuff. Something you again fail to acknowledge is that the 717s come at a discount. SWA is paying $130 million to refurbish them, including C checks, new paint, wifi install, everything. Have you included that in your analysis? Didn't think so. Thanks to bag fees and change fees, the normal cost of a flight goes DOWN because each extra checked bag added in the cargo bin added extra revenue. That wasn't the case 3 years ago. Your analysis forgets that part, OBVIOUSLY.

Oil prices are lower, and having a refinery takes away the middleman in the East Coast and helps the bottom line. Does that help the 717 operation? Sure it will.

If for some reason the airline needs smaller planes, we will fly them. Why? Because the company can't just add new planes without getting the ok from the union. There are a max of 125 50 seaters allowed, and specific numbers of 70 and 76 seaters, and large props are also included in that number. So, you are WRONG.


There may be a "first right of refusal" for buying the 717s after the leases are up. But, if they are well maintained, the purchase price could be very low ($5-6 million range?), and they may last for years to come after that. The MD90s are the same size as a 737-800, and they are rumored at being around $8-9 million each, including the engines. They do the same mission seatwise as the 738, with a little less range, but can hit Caribbean points from ATL with ease. Have you thrown in initial purchase price into your analysis? I don't think so....

There is one point where your Regionals have an advantage, and that is cost of the pilots. Your costs are going down, thanks to whipsawing for contracts. Look at the PNCL pilots, they unfortunately have been smacked again, and their new rates will be your new rates most likely, especially if your contract (SKW doesn't really have one......non union....oh, right) comes up near feed contract renewal. Most of your pilots will see this and apply to all 3 legacies, and move on and make twice what you do at SKW within a few years, enjoying variety of planes and seeing things they couldn't see. You, in the meantime, will be flying around the West Coast, using memorized ATC frequencies all along the way. But hey, as long as you enjoy it....... Most of your cohorts are going to move on to bigger and better things. Enjoy PDX.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Jon Rivoli]

Truly funny stuff. Something you again fail to acknowledge is that the 717s come at a discount. SWA is paying $130 million to refurbish them, including C checks, new paint, wifi install, everything. Have you included that in your analysis? Didn't think so. Thanks to bag fees and change fees, the normal cost of a flight goes DOWN because each extra checked bag added in the cargo bin added extra revenue. That wasn't the case 3 years ago. Your analysis forgets that part, OBVIOUSLY.

I think I hear an echo.

Oil prices are lower, and having a refinery takes away the middleman in the East Coast and helps the bottom line. Does that help the 717 operation? Sure it will.

Did you know that the fuel burn per seat mile of an MD is only about 10% less than a fifty seat RJ and is worse that a 700 or 900. It is about 20% worse than a 737NG. But your getting free fuel so that won't matter.

If for some reason the airline needs smaller planes, we will fly them. Why? Because the company can't just add new planes without getting the ok from the union. There are a max of 125 50 seaters allowed, and specific numbers of 70 and 76 seaters, and large props are also included in that number. So, you are WRONG.

BOLD TYPE IS NO MATCH FOR ECONOMICS. Scope will only last as long as economics allow, then your CONTRACT will get amended.

There may be a "first right of refusal" for buying the 717s after the leases are up. But, if they are well maintained, the purchase price could be very low ($5-6 million range?), and they may last for years to come after that. The MD90s are the same size as a 737-800, and they are rumored at being around $8-9 million each, including the engines. They do the same mission seatwise as the 738, with a little less range, but can hit Caribbean points from ATL with ease. Have you thrown in initial purchase price into your analysis? I don't think so....

By then newer aircraft will be available that are far more efficient (C series) they will be worth scrap, but then again NW seems to like ancient obsolete airplanes so maybe they will keep flogging them like the DC-9's

There is one point where your Regionals have an advantage, and that is cost of the pilots. Your costs are going down, thanks to whipsawing for contracts. Look at the PNCL pilots, they unfortunately have been smacked again, and their new rates will be your new rates most likely, especially if your contract (SKW doesn't really have one......non union....oh, right) comes up near feed contract renewal.

SkyWest will continue to feed Delta as long as it is profitable to do so. When it isn't, it will be time to switch to a new business model. Did you know that the E175 is a common type with the E195 and they have 95% parts commonality. Three days of differences training and SkyWest is flying 125 seats. Were Delta to lose all of that feed it would go the way of Pan Am in about a year. That is what RA is worried about.

Most of your pilots will see this and apply to all 3 legacies, and move on and make twice what you do at SKW within a few years, enjoying variety of planes and seeing things they couldn't see.

I wish them well. You too for that matter.

You, in the meantime, will be flying around the West Coast, using memorized ATC frequencies all along the way. But hey, as long as you enjoy it

.......

Yes I will.

Most of your cohorts are going to move on to bigger and better things. Enjoy PDX.

Bigger? Yes. Better? No.

Bye Bye---General Lee

Hasta la vista

 

[General Lee]

Jon,

50 seaters are extremely inefficient with high gas, hence they are being dumped as fast as possible. Your assertion that your airline could transition over to the E195 can't happen when you feed any Legacy (scope clause again), so you would have to go up against all 3 legacies, SWA, and then true LCCs out there. You wouldn't last any longer than Indy Air. What will you do with those 100 MRJs btw? I can't wait to see what happens with that.

And, your cohorts will move on to bigger and BETTER. Better pay after a couple of years, better benefits, better retirement (DC fund plus 401k), better choices of different types of flying, and better chances of bringing your family up in lifestyle and paying for college, etc. A lot of what the legacies offer is better, but as a lifer, you try to ignore and also don't mention any differences to your FOs. There are echoes out there, but mainly between your ears. "Did I make the right choice? Hello! hello! Echo, echo, echo..."


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Jon Rivoli]

General Scope Lee,

Look at a Delta time table, half of you schedule is operated by SkyWest and we carry 20 to 25% or your passengers every day, the same is true of United. Were SkyWest put in a position where it could no longer profit under the CPA model and it did opt for independence with larger aircraft Delta would have no choice but code share and your precious scope would evaporate like a fart in the wind.

The Comair strike only crippled CVG and it cost DAL $1 billion. Imagine losing almost all of your feed at ATL, MSP and SLC overnight. Comair strike times ten. DAL will cave in a heartbeat.

Bye Bye

 

[General Lee]

General Scope Lee,

Look at a Delta time table, half of you schedule is operated by SkyWest and we carry 20 to 25% or your passengers every day, the same is true of United. Were SkyWest put in a position where it could no longer profit under the CPA model and it did opt for independence with larger aircraft Delta would have no choice but code share and your precious scope would evaporate like a fart in the wind.

The Comair strike only crippled CVG and it cost DAL $1 billion. Imagine losing almost all of your feed at ATL, MSP and SLC overnight. Comair strike times ten. DAL will cave in a heartbeat.

Bye Bye

Jon,

DL has agreements with other regionals for 70 and 76 seaters, and they decide who will fly where.. DL plans on dumping 215 in the next few years. Costs will come down, or the regionals will lose more. You somehow think your airline is picking and choosing, when in fact others will probably do it for cheaper. You are getting E175s for UAL, not DL. Thanks to new scope clauses, 50 seaters are being replaced by fewer 66/70/76 seaters. So, your expansion dreams are not reality, rather upgrading size to a limited number. Then, throw in legacy hiring, and that could cripple your airline and many other regionals, along with new fatigue rules and hiring rules. Don't get so giddy, and good luck with your own MRJ upgrade. That will be fun to watch. Where are you going to put 100 of those? Riiiight. Sayonara.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[flyboyike]

Russ, the Internet allows people to give opinions, and backing them up helps prove points. Your imaginary line that you think all manaments control is just not the case. They cannot use BK to move the line too often, but that really has been where it was moved recently.

You're making it sound like making money can stop airline management from filing bankruptcy, if they so decide. I hope you're right, but....

 

[PBRstreetgang]

You guys realize, you are arguing with a troll. Genny Sits in his basement "apartment" while his mom cooks the brisket for dinner. Has he ever offered anything, besides stuff he copies off the Internet and his inane mono dimensional theories cooked up with his Aspergers fueled mania. The man crush he has for DAL is un-natural and illustrates the true nature of his mania. I am not sure what is sadder, him or the vortex he sucks you all into.
Notice the massive inferiority complex he displays on a regular basis? He equates his perceived hierarchy and imagined place in that position as somehow superior to anyone who "flies" something smaller than his fantasy plane.
Anyone who has more than survival amounts of money, know that the number in your bank account does not correlate to intelligence, fame, or genitalia size, it simply means you have that amount in your account.
I know a guy at the local G/A airport who is a trust fund victim. Dumb, can't focus long enough to get a private, and all the CFIs refuse to fly with him any longer. He has lots of money, Genny, he can be your new idol.
So when you imply you have superiority, and some super secret insider insight, simply because you have the 767 MS flight sim, you are just a pimply, goober sitting in your moms basement wishing you were exactly, what you aren't, a pilot of anything, but since you aren't you resort to your bullying bluster.
Sorry for the drunk rant, a sixer of St Paulie, down by the pool, a sweet afternoon, just needed to give the Genny a tittytwister.

 

[General Lee]

You're making it sound like making money can stop airline management from filing bankruptcy, if they so decide. I hope you're right, but....

How about the SEC? You still have to prove why you are going BK. If not, there would be tons of lawsuits by shareholders. And, it would take awhile, sustained losses. Most businesses don't want to go BK once, let alone twice or more. Unlikely. Ask Horton if he was happy he went BK? Where did his $20 million go? That was another shot against the bow for management. They may make more money themselves if they stay OUT OF BK and try to make profits.....


Bye Bye---General Lee