No, I believe an arbitrator's decision would most likely be very close to relative seniority. I think most UAL pilot would push for DOH however.
I don't think that there will be many pushing for DOH at UAL. I haven't seen anyone suggest that on our ALPA boards. We went through that with USAirways in 2000 and are now the senior pilots DOH-wise compared to CAL.
Some have suggested tall fences, as what happened with NWA/Republic. I oppose fences because it will create too many barriers within the pilot group.
I would be very disappointed with UAL ALPA if they did not propose a reasonable seniority integration from the start. To do otherwise sets the pilots up for unrealistic expectations.
In my case, I'd benefit greatly from DOH; I was hired at UAL in 2000. I don't expect to see my relative seniority change by more than +/- a couple of percent.
I hope that a merger does not occur, but if one were to occur with United, I'd hope it to be with CAL. It makes the most sense in terms of route structures. There is not a great deal of overlap which would mean less cutbacks.