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UAL Scope: Checkmate

100/hour/5y

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Scope: Checkmate

There seems to be a letter circulating around the L-UAL side that was forwarded to me by a buddy of mine over there that I found interesting. Scope is one of the most important sections we have in any contract and it seems there's a gaping hole in that section. We're so focused on 76 seaters and thinking that's the threat, but what about SNB as replacement a/c? I never even thought of it to be honest with you. Managment has made it known that they're wanting to replace the Airbus's and the 737-500's. So if you read this letter below, it sets up a senario that we might find ourselves in with big pay cuts and loss of seat, not to mention stagnation. Anyhow, worth the read and at the very least, should be brought up during the roadshows.

SCOPE CONSIDERATIONS UNDER THE PROPOSED UNITED CONTINENTAL PILOT'S TENTATIVE AGREEMENT

1. There is nothing in the current TA preventing the Company from replacing current aircraft types with lower paying single narrow bodies (SNB).

2. This would be an enormous cost savings for the Company to the estimate of $685,000,000 over the 5 year term of the contract. This estimate ONLY includes known crew costs and does not factor in unknown variables such as lease deferments, improved maintenance costs, etc.

3. The estimates below are based on the pay scales published in the TA.

4. I would be remiss to omit that there is a certain amount of speculation. However, examining the facts, listening to union representatives on how the pay scales for the SNB came to fruition, and knowing how our management team operates, the following is completely plausible.

Facts:

The more conservative pay of the 319, 737-700, and 737-500 were used for this exercise. All references to pay will be based on 12 years of service.

Captain

A319, 700-500 $181.24

EMB-195 $142.38 ($38.86)

EMB-190 $121.12 ($60.02)


First Officers

A319, 700-500 $123.79

EMB-195 $97.24 ($26.55)

EMB-190 $82.72 ($41.07)

The figures referenced above are the pay rates from the TA. The numbers in () are the differences between the rates from the A319, 737-700, 500 and the published rates for the SNB aircraft. These figures are used in the calculations below.

We have all heard that the company wants to get rid of the Airbus aircraft due to age, reliability, maintenance cost, etc. Additionally, it is known that the 737-500 will be gone prior to mid year 2013. Currently, United has a total of 203 aircraft that are either A320, A319, B737-700 or B737-500. The industry average of 6 crews per aircraft equates to 1218 Captains and an equal amount of First Officers. Assume an average of 80 hours of flight pay time per month for each of the mentioned pilots. Considering the above points and the figures from the pay rates, the following multiples are the staggering results which would support the Company's motivation to move high paying jobs from the current fleets to the lower paying jobs in the SNB's. Please keep in mind this is BASIC crew savings. Subject the same, the following calculations are on a PER YEAR based and SNB specific.

Captains

EMB 195 $45,438,220

EMB 190 $70,180,185


First Officers

EMB 195 $31,044,384

EMB 190 $48,022,329


Total pilot savings

EMB 195 $76,482,604

EMB 190 $118,202,514

Additional Savings--B plan contribution

EMB 195 $12,237,216

EMB 190 $18,912,402


TOTAL CREW COST SAVINGS PER YEAR

EMB 195 $88,721,820

EMB 190 $137,114,916


Note: An additional crew savings of $7-8,000,000 per year is realized with the reduction of the third flight attendant in the EMB 190 and 195.

The potential savings for the Company is HUGE. Additionally, the Company will be allowed to take advantage of the scope provision that allows them to increase the number of 76 seat RJ's by simply adding new SNB aircraft. Contractually, the Company must adhere to the 1:1.25 ratio if they increase the number of 76 seat aircraft above 153. In order to maximize the number of allowable 76 seat aircraft, 325 allowed under the T/A, they must add 215 SNB aircraft (total 76 seat hulls allowed=325, minus 153, 76 seat hulls currently allowed = 172 x 1.25= 215. The current combined number of A320, A319, B737-500, and 737-700 is 203, difference of 12 hulls.​
 

fam62c

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How are you going to stop the company from operating airplanes they want to operate on your certificate with your pilots? If the company is going to use 100 seat airplanes don't you want them flown by mainline pilots? As a union we've always tied pay to aircraft size to justify more pay for larger planes, this makes it hard to argue against lower pay for smaller planes.

What do you suggest as a solution here?
 

100/hour/5y

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How are you going to stop the company from operating airplanes they want to operate on your certificate with your pilots? If the company is going to use 100 seat airplanes don't you want them flown by mainline pilots? As a union we've always tied pay to aircraft size to justify more pay for larger planes, this makes it hard to argue against lower pay for smaller planes.

What do you suggest as a solution here?

At CAL we used to had 100 seats airplanes they were called DC-9's...
 

CesnaCaptn

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Did this bean counter figure out how much lost revenue there will be with fewer seats on these smaller planes?
 

Turtle21

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Did this bean counter figure out how much lost revenue there will be with fewer seats on these smaller planes?

They reduced pitch another 3" in first, 6" in couch, and introduced a standing only zone with over head handgrips to replace the last 8 rows.
 

minrest

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So to follow this logic, the company should get rid of the 787/777's and replace them with 767-300's. Then they should find a regional to undercut the current 70 seat rj's with some dirt cheap 50 seaters. Then they should round up a bunch of beech 1900's and replace the q400.
 

nimtz

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How are you going to stop the company from operating airplanes they want to operate on your certificate with your pilots? If the company is going to use 100 seat airplanes don't you want them flown by mainline pilots? As a union we've always tied pay to aircraft size to justify more pay for larger planes, this makes it hard to argue against lower pay for smaller planes.

What do you suggest as a solution here?

Paybanding! :beer:
 

scoreboardII

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you guys should be happy the company is trying to keep flying inhouse, smalle medium large, whatever.
 

amcnd

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A lot of "what if's"..... Delta TA said lots of hiring... Well that didn't happen....
 

General Lee

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A lot of "what if's"..... Delta TA said lots of hiring... Well that didn't happen....

DL is currently fat on pilots by about 400 due to capacity cuts and mods being done on widebodies that are getting lie flat seats and AVOD in the back of the seats. In 2013 DL will start getting 88 717s at 3 per month starting in AUG, along with 14 MD90s and 737-900ERs also coming at 3 per month starting in AUG(those 739s will replace older 757s/320s/767 Dom one for one). So, the 717s and MD90s will be growth planes, plus retirements will eventually take place. I don't think anyone thought there would be immediate hiring thanks to the TA. The additional planes don't come until next year anyway, and that was known.



Bye Bye---General Lee
 

fam62c

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Paybanding! :beer:


Sure, but that has to get negotiated. How much negotiating capital do you spend to increase pay rates for aircraft you don't have and may never have on property? My thought has always been to either avoid publishing rates for equipment that is not either on property or been ordered. Failing that put rates in with a sunset provision if there are no planes in that class on property by a certain date; this prevents rates from becoming stale especially in cases where there are limited comparable contracts to determine a market value.

I'm thinking that if 100 seat airplanes had compelling economics the airlines would be ordering them in droves but they are ordering 737's and A-319/320's in droves instead because these are the most versatile planes available for the majority of the flying most airlines do.

It's also important to keep in mind that as pilots we think we are the center of the universe around which all airline economic considerations revolve. Pilot compensation is just one consideration when choosing a new aircraft type and in the grand scheme of things it's probably not a deciding factor.
 

wms

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There is not an innovative bone at Ual. Once they see that dal is moving capacity to larger aircraft and making money they will follow.

Economics, a staffing shortage, and follow-the-leader will do to snb's what scope cannot.

What Ual needs to focus on is what's best for customers. Common sense mgmt principles would make it a better company for everyone.
 

flyboyike

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...plus retirements will eventually take place....

They've been "eventually taking place" as long as I've been playing with airplanes.
 

KNOTS

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DL is currently fat on pilots by about 400 due to capacity cuts and mods being done on widebodies that are getting lie flat seats and AVOD in the back of the seats. In 2013 DL will start getting 88 717s at 3 per month starting in AUG, along with 14 MD90s and 737-900ERs also coming at 3 per month starting in AUG(those 739s will replace older 757s/320s/767 Dom one for one). So, the 717s and MD90s will be growth planes, plus retirements will eventually take place. I don't think anyone thought there would be immediate hiring thanks to the TA. The additional planes don't come until next year anyway, and that was known.



Bye Bye---General Lee

Not true... Delta guys were on this forum saying hiring was going to start "fall '12" DALPA over estimated the number of early retirements also.
 

FDJ2

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A lot of "what if's"..... Delta TA said lots of hiring... Well that didn't happen....

Actually, the Delta TA didn't say that, but a comm piece was published that depicted the staffing impact of the new contract. That comm piece showed a net staffing change of 1 in 2012, 180 in 2013, driven by 717s coming online in the second half of the year, then in 2014 and 2015 approximately 400-500 additional positions each year as more 717s come online. All in the contract will create about 1,100 new mainline jobs through 2015, but only 1 this year.
 

General Lee

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Actually, the Delta TA didn't say that, but a comm piece was published that depicted the staffing impact of the new contract. That comm piece showed a net staffing change of 1 in 2012, 180 in 2013, driven by 717s coming online in the second half of the year, then in 2014 and 2015 approximately 400-500 additional positions each year as more 717s come online. All in the contract will create about 1,100 new mainline jobs through 2015, but only 1 this year.

And that also means about 550 new Captain positions (on 88 717s), along with 14 more MD90s next year alone too.(although they will replace the 17 DC9s exiting in 2014 now) The new 739s will be neutral with pilots, replacing one for one domestic 757s, A320s, and some domestic 767-300s. So, the 717s will be growth airplanes. Here's for hoping for a widebody order or buying used widebodies sooner than later...


Bye Bye---General Lee
 

IBNAV8R

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I'm getting deja vu from the early 90s.

Pilots: "We're not going to fly those little panty-waist airplanes"

Management: "Alrighty then, have a nice day"
 

Ben Franklin

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....
TOTAL CREW COST SAVINGS PER YEAR

EMB 195 $88,721,820

EMB 190 $137,114,916


Note: An additional crew savings of $7-8,000,000 per year is realized with the reduction of the third flight attendant in the EMB 190 and 195.

estimated cost of 203 E190/5's @ $30,000,000/ea = $6,090,000,000.00

estimated crew savings/yr from the original post = $233,836,736.00

Allowable per the TA.. but is it a good "dollars and sense" decision?
:nuts:
 

RJ Bum

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I'm getting deja vu from the early 90s.

Pilots: "We're not going to fly those little panty-waist airplanes"

Management: "Alrighty then, have a nice day"

What are you saying? Pilots reliving their mistakes? Say it isn’t so….
 
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