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UAL Loses January 27, 2006 $17 Billion in 4th quarter

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BLUE BAYOU

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 15, 2002
Posts
836
January 27, 2006 United Airlines parent UAL on Friday said it lost a staggering USD$17 billion in the fourth quarter on reorganization expenses and skyrocketing fuel prices.
The USD$17 billion in reorganization items recorded in the quarter represent mostly claims allowed during the bankruptcy process. They are expected to be settled when the company exits bankruptcy for a small fraction of the amount, the company said.
"The USD$17 billion (loss) is meaningless because it involves all sorts of accounting issues," said airline consultant Michael Boyd.
The airline, which has been in bankruptcy since December 2002, has been hurt along with other major airlines by high fuel costs and overcapacity. Some carriers have seen renewed stability lately as excess capacity comes out of the market.
Excluding the charge, UAL said its operating loss was USD$182 million compared with USD$570 million in the same quarter last year. Total revenue increased by 10 percent, to USD$4.4 billion.
"These results set us on track for the year ahead," UAL's Chief Executive Glenn Tilton said in a recorded message to employees. "We will push forward and build on this momentum, knowing there is much to be gained simply in improving our execution."
The carrier ended the quarter with an unrestricted cash balance of USD$1.8 billion and a restricted cash balance of USD$957 million for a total of USD$2.7 billion.
The airline forecast its fuel price would average USD$1.92 per gallon in the first quarter. For all of 2006, UAL said it anticipates fuel expenses would increase by about USD$885 million over its previous assumption, which was based on a fuel price of USD$1.48 per gallon.
UAL has taken criticism in the last few months because of a fuel forecast that many experts say is overly optimistic. The carrier said in its reorganization plan, approved by a bankruptcy court, that it expects the price of oil to average USD$50 a barrel over the next five years. NYMEX oil futures were trading above USD$67 a barrel on Friday.
"They're facing reality," said Ray Neidl, airline analyst at Calyon Securities. "They can offset some of that in a better revenue environment."
UAL's Chief Financial Officer Jake Brace agreed the airline can offset high fuel prices by controlling non-fuel costs.
"It's consistent with what we've been saying all along," Brace said, adding the airline still believes fuel prices will fall in line with its forecast.
Currently, UAL has no hedges in place for 2006 to protect itself from unexpected spikes in fuel prices, due in part to restrictions placed on the airline in bankruptcy. Brace said the airline will consider fuel hedging once it emerges from bankruptcy.
UAL said it expects its mainline capacity, the number of seats it puts up for sale, to increase by about 1 percent in the first quarter of 2006.

(Reuters)

Can you say Lawyers???
 
That was equivalent to $145 per share. Wow. But, they just got Concourse A back at IAD, and now they are excited about expanding there. Good for them.


Bye Bye--General Lee
 
Just about all of it is only on papaer. They still have $2.7 Billion in cash so no difference from the last quarter. That 17B will be off the books for the 1st quarter numbers.
 
Ah, the magic of GAAP. I'm not worried about the $17B paper loss, just as I won't be doing cartwheels when UAL reports a $15B paper gain in the first quarter of '06.
I haven't taken a look at the detailed numbers yet, but I'd bet a dollar that the huge losses are due to UAL's debts being valued at 100%. When they're paid at ~8 cents on the dollar (in new stock) in the first quarter, this will show up as a huge paper gain.
 
Andy,

You are exactly right, but don't waste your time here. The UAUA bashing will continue no matter what. I'm sure there will be more flame about this "loss" in the coming days. The flamers won't listen, but as you said, the loss means virtually nothing. Just like the BILLIONS in PROFITS in the coming months will mean nothing. It's all paper.
 
flyguppy said:
Andy,

You are exactly right, but don't waste your time here. The UAUA bashing will continue no matter what. I'm sure there will be more flame about this "loss" in the coming days. The flamers won't listen, but as you said, the loss means virtually nothing. Just like the BILLIONS in PROFITS in the coming months will mean nothing. It's all paper.

100% SPOT ON!
 
flyguppy said:
Andy,

You are exactly right, but don't waste your time here. The UAUA bashing will continue no matter what. I'm sure there will be more flame about this "loss" in the coming days. The flamers won't listen, but as you said, the loss means virtually nothing. Just like the BILLIONS in PROFITS in the coming months will mean nothing. It's all paper.
Agreed.....but what's really happening? Are they actually making money or losing it?:confused:
 
flyguppy said:
You are exactly right, but don't waste your time here. The UAUA bashing will continue no matter what. I'm sure there will be more flame about this "loss" in the coming days. The flamers won't listen, but as you said, the loss means virtually nothing. Just like the BILLIONS in PROFITS in the coming months will mean nothing. It's all paper.

SWEET. This'll be like the old days (UAL pre-chap 11). UAL was a favorite punching bag among members of this site. That's when we'll know that UAL has recovered. Just look at how JetBlue and Southwest have become targets here.
 
:smash:
Andy said:
SWEET. This'll be like the old days (UAL pre-chap 11). UAL was a favorite punching bag among members of this site. That's when we'll know that UAL has recovered. Just look at how JetBlue and Southwest have become targets here.

Careful Andy....you've just given us way too much credibility for knowing how UAL is doing on the balance sheet. Seems like their own accountants can't really figure it out either....at least on the publically released documents. I for one intend to bash UAL regardless of how they are doing financially. Doing poor?= bad business tactics. Doing good?= gloating. Either one works for me. :smash:
 
J32driver said:
Still losing money. But wait... they are planning on $50 per barrel of oil... so everything is JUST FINE!

Thanks for affirming my previous post.
Yep; everything's static in the airline business. Ticket prices haven't increased since that business plan was tabled and JPM and C are just pissing away $3B.
I'm sure that Tilton, who worked in the oil biz for more than 30 years, could use some tutoring on oil price forecasts.
I'm also sure that what UAL disclosed publically is EXACTLY what they're planning in private.
 
WhiteCloud said:
:smash:

Careful Andy....you've just given us way too much credibility for knowing how UAL is doing on the balance sheet. Seems like their own accountants can't really figure it out either....at least on the publically released documents. I for one intend to bash UAL regardless of how they are doing financially. Doing poor?= bad business tactics. Doing good?= gloating. Either one works for me. :smash:

LOL!
I HATE the Dallas Cowboys and Oakland Raiders. Many feel the same way about UAL.
UAL kicked some a$$ and they've been handed a huge slice of humble pie. It'll be tough to kick a$$ against LUV's oil hedges, but it'll be interesting to watch the next three years.
Either way, good luck to ya, keep the shiny side up and may you always find a tailwind (unless you need additional duty time).
 
J32driver said:
Still losing money. But wait... they are planning on $50 per barrel of oil... so everything is JUST FINE!

But break even oil price is $67 or so. Try asking the other major airlines out there what their plan is. That's if they even have one. One other than UAL going out of business.
 
"These expenses reflect claims allowed against the company from our creditors as part of the restructuring process. In order to conform with the rules of (a set of accounting guidelines called 'Generally Accepted Accounting Principles,)' we have to record the full claims amounts as reorganization expenses now, even though these claims are expected to be settled to just a minor fraction of the claims recorded ... and in most cases, that will be for stock in the new company and not in cash." The Company expects to report a substantial gain at bankruptcy exit. According to a release issued by United today, these unsecured claims "are not expected to have a significant impact on the Company's cash position."
 
FlyBoeingJets said:

Although CASM is important it is just one factor. RASM is the key. You can have a higher CASM if your RASM is above that. In the case of ATA they touted their low CASM but that was because they had alot of seats to spread the costs. However their RASM was below the CASM and they ended up losing mucho money. They had too many seats and not enough revenue to cover their costs and make money.
 
And ATA's stage lengths were/are very long so the CASM was not entirely comparable to SWA's and Airtran's CASM numbers.


The CASM gap has been the legacies achilles heal for some time. Because of it, SWA could sweep into their markets and undercut them. Their CASM is now trending remarkably lower. With a RASM premium on international to cover the difference, they are newly competitive on domestic routes.
 
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hyflyt560 said:
"These expenses reflect claims allowed against the company from our creditors as part of the restructuring process. In order to conform with the rules of (a set of accounting guidelines called 'Generally Accepted Accounting Principles,)' we have to record the full claims amounts as reorganization expenses now, even though these claims are expected to be settled to just a minor fraction of the claims recorded ... and in most cases, that will be for stock in the new company and not in cash." The Company expects to report a substantial gain at bankruptcy exit. According to a release issued by United today, these unsecured claims "are not expected to have a significant impact on the Company's cash position."

In english........we owe our creditors a ton of money and are only going to pay them a few pennies on the dollar. We're not even going to pay them in cash.....we're going to give them some stock. We're keeping the money. :p
 
From an article about the $17 billion loss:


The net loss was a record $16.9 billion for the fourth quarter and $21.2 billion for the year, virtually all non-cash reorganization expenses. Most of those on-paper losses will be reversed within weeks, however, reflecting unsecured claims that will be settled for a fraction of the charges upon exit from bankruptcy. The company is expected to disclose a multibillion-dollar gain when it reports first-quarter results, formally accounting for the overturning of many of those losses.



Bye Bye--General Lee
 
I'm no MBA

What worries me is that UAL only shed their debt load to around $17B from somewhere in the neighborhood of $26B. I thought he whole point of Ch11 was to shed debt and restructure. Are their costs/debt now in a position to take on the LCC's in the domestic arena?

I'm rooting for you guys at UAL. There's a rich history there.


Of course, I woke up this morning and found out I was on strike -- I've got my own problems to worry about right now.
 
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FlyBoeingJets said:
And ATA's stage lengths were/are very long so the CASM was not entirely comparable to SWA's and Airtran's CASM numbers.


The CASM gap has been the legacies achilles heal for some time. Because of it, SWA could sweep into their markets and undercut them. Their CASM is now trending remarkably lower. With a RASM premium on international to cover the difference, they are newly competitive on domestic routes.

One spot that hub and spoke carriers have a distinct cost disadvantage revolves around aircraft utilization. I read an Aviation Week article recently that pointed out that the legacies could, on average, lower their CASM by 1.5 cents if they could get the type of utilization that SWA gets. That of course is impossible using hub and spoke large airports. Therefore, you hope such a system derives enough premium to cover this disadvantage. If it doesn't, you go after the employees to help subsidize the system.
 

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