UAL getting 43 New 777's

[PHXFLYR]

Please...no more mergers . I've already been thru one too many...pick someone else.


PHXFLYR

 

[whymeworry?]

EMBpilot,

Look at the route map and think who flies politicians in their Delta Elite fleet. The losses can be sustainable for a long-long time

Seriously? You regard DALs sustainability because of it's correlation to the politicians they fly? Sounds like all the AQ pilots who said their 61 yr airline could never go out of business because: "Hawaii politicians would never allow it." Or the Air India pilots who claim their government will never let the state-run airline fail. As of today, AI is on the verge of going under, 98% of their routes lose money (Forbes Nov 2009) and they haven't paid their pilots in 4 months (a strike is scheduled for next week).

BTW, CAL flys political big-wigs too. So does everyone. Why do you think SWA gets so much support in Washington?

In business, you either have a sustainable model or you don't. No company is too big, or too connected, to fail. But I suppose you know all this already (que the GM/ GS/ AIG bailout history to make your point, I get it. Those were the exception. Beside the US gov't is broke).

As far as your making money on DAL. So did I... when the stock went from $7 to $8. Whoopy. Big deal. The fact is, the stock traded lower from the day the merger was announced and has never meaningfully recovered. Even today it is lower. Shareholders have been clobbered. But I doubt many noticed since so many lost money last year. For the time being the pilots are content because no significant cross-bidding has occurred and no furloughs have been announced as yet.

Regarding DAL's liabilities, I rechecked my numbers... to clarify, DAL lost $14.5 billion from 2000-2008. I should have been more clear about that. But it was an amount far higher than any other airline. And yes, they are $44 billion in debt.

As far as a UAL/ CAL merger, most of us think think the SLI process will be a blood-bath. No doubt! But overlap and excess staffing? No way. Much less overlap than NW/DAL. And if we adopt UAL's staffing formulas (which we and they will obviously push for) , there will be a need for up to 3000 more pilots. CAL's workrules suck, we've been understaffed for years because of it. But if they adopt our rules, there will be a furlough of an additional 1200 pilots between the two carriers.

Of course, these are just my opinions. But I have done the research based on current info.

Back to the point. Until DAL makes money, I don't think a merger is a forgone conclusion. Thus far the only thing a mega-carrier has amounted to is one heaping loss and debt-load. But I will agree it is early in the game as yet and they may actually pull this off. Their timing sucked and all those DC-9s aren't helping (despite what GH says).

It does beg the question though, why are Anderson and his team unloading all their shares right now if DALs future is so bright? I'm no rocket scientist but I'm pretty sure mgmt's lack of faith in the stock is not a good sign.

As humans, we all tend to see life through rose-colored shades. DAL pilots really exaggerate this point. I recall in 2003 when my good DAL buddy, who was furloughed at the time, made some rather foolish moves with his career at the company he was flying for. When I warned him to be careful he told me he wasn't worried 'cause he'd be going back to DAL soon (that didn't happen until 4 yrs later in 2007). I went on to warn him that I thought DAL was in a precarious position because they had more than $2.5 in liabilities coming due in 2004 and that he should be prepared to hunker down. You'd have thought I just stole his wife based on his response. Folks, this is all public information. I hardly think I am being biased about it when I'm merely sifting through financial data (not a hobby, it's just so easily available if you know how to read a financial report). So dont' shoot the messenger. Get educated and enlighten yourself.

Belive me, I am under no illustions that UAL is a sinking ship that may eventually bring CAL down. But there isn't much I can do about it except hope that my merger committee is prepared for the battle that may come; or that UAL will get its act together and become a great carrier once again. In the meantime, we wait.

 

[contrail67]

As far as a UAL/ CAL merger, most of us think think the SLI process will be a blood-bath. No doubt! But overlap and excess staffing? No way. Much less overlap than NW/DAL. And if we adopt UAL's staffing formulas (which we and they will obviously push for) , there will be a need for up to 3000 more pilots. CAL's workrules suck, we've been understaffed for years because of it. But if they adopt our rules, there will be a furlough of an additional 1200 pilots between the two carriers.


What are some of the "major" differences that would cause 3000 more pilots? Not sure of how CAL does their staffing.

 

[G4G5]

Since UAL has emerged from BK, Tilton has managed to accumulate $8 BILLION in debt. Their will be no sale of the Pacific routes because they are in essence owned by Citi as collateral on the debt. Citi and all of the other banks understand that UAL needs cash flow to service the debt. How would selling or merging help the banks?

UAL has managed to put it into a position where it's debt is to large for a merger.

Cal mgt will never merge with UAL, code share yes, merge never. No creditor will accept anything less then 100% on the UAL debt because UAL is currently servicing the debt. That puts CAL or AMR in the position of having to pay $8 billion to the banks before they incur a single penny of merger costs. Delta(15+ billion in debt) may have been willing to take on huge debt but AMR (9 billion in debt) and CAL's mgt (5+ billion in debt) appears to be of the mind set that in this economy cash and not debt is king.


The banks will continue to lend UAL money for assets just like October's $800+ million dollar loan for aircraft (12% pay out to the banks) until UAL has nothing left. At that point they will keep them on life support by purchasing FF miles.

It's going to be a long slow death by paper cuts until they either turn it around or reorganize under another BK.

Tilton burning through an average of $2 billion a year (in debt) and growing.........

Not so sure that DAL taking on $15+ billion in debt in a recessionary economy is a good thing, only time will tell....

 

[Yuppyguppy]

wow....you are such an expert G4G5 holy ********************

 

[G4G5]

wow....you are such an expert G4G5 holy ********************

Thanks

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

I read that UAL thinks the -777ER is old technology, and won't be buying any more (Emirates agrees).

cliff
NBO

 

[whymeworry?]

As far as a UAL/ CAL merger, most of us think think the SLI process will be a blood-bath. No doubt! But overlap and excess staffing? No way. Much less overlap than NW/DAL. And if we adopt UAL's staffing formulas (which we and they will obviously push for) , there will be a need for up to 3000 more pilots. CAL's workrules suck, we've been understaffed for years because of it. But if they adopt our rules, there will be a furlough of an additional 1200 pilots between the two carriers.


What are some of the "major" differences that would cause 3000 more pilots? Not sure of how CAL does their staffing.[/QUOTE]

You know, I'm not exactly sure. Some of the items might be that we DH our IROs out to Europe, UAL works them. UAL has some sort of rigs and perhaps better contractural staffing formulas. I got the info from one of our guys who sat down with the UAL NC last year when it looked like a merger was imminent (shortly before the CAL BOD rejected UAL's advances). He told me so long as we take their work rules and keep our pay rates we would all do pretty well in a merger. But now that I think about it, 3000 new pilots might be a high number considering both airlines have considerably reduced fleet size since I was told that number in Spring 2008 (CAL parking 67 737s, UAL parking 100 737s). But starting in 2010, CAL willl grow its fleet again. At the moment UAL doesn't have any fleet growth plans but I assume they will eventually replace at least half the airframes they parked. So factoring in "re-growth" to where we all were Spring '08 and their staffing formulas, we could see close to that 3000 number if a merger ever occurred... again, assuming we took their work rules.

 

[contrail67]

Well I am all for keeping United's work rules but I don't want CAL's current pay rates OR UAL's current pay rates. It would not surprise me at all if there is a "merger" contract already written....in some drawer somewhere.

 

[ATRCA]

3000 more pilots? What a joke! You can't be serious. No merger has EVER LEAD TO HIRING IN THE HISTORY OF THE WORLD! and this one won't either. There will be at least 1200 furloughes. CALALPA has already hinted about reductions at both companies should they merge.

Furloughs and workforce poison, that's what you're gonna get. I'll throw in a fist fight here and there for good measure too. This merger will be like all of it's predecessors, it will create wealthy executives who will all be on a 5 year exit plan, the employees will forever blame one another for their woes and the company will bleed cash and shrink. That's been the formula for decades in this industry. Anyone who thinks otherwise is foolish.

 

[St. Nic]

God this board can be funny! UAL is toast! 8 billion more in debt thanks to Tilton and nothing to show for it- except for more red ink, older employees and aging airplanes. WIthout a doubt, UAL is going bk and CAL is positioning itself to pick the good stuff from the carcass. Why else would CAL be so involved with such a hopeless airline?

 

[contrail67]

3000 more pilots? What a joke! You can't be serious. No merger has EVER LEAD TO HIRING IN THE HISTORY OF THE WORLD! and this one won't either. There will be at least 1200 furloughes. CALALPA has already hinted about reductions at both companies should they merge.

Furloughs and workforce poison, that's what you're gonna get. I'll throw in a fist fight here and there for good measure too. This merger will be like all of it's predecessors, it will create wealthy executives who will all be on a 5 year exit plan, the employees will forever blame one another for their woes and the company will bleed cash and shrink. That's been the formula for decades in this industry. Anyone who thinks otherwise is foolish.

Someone must have pissed in your cereal....a merger can work if thought out...did not see DAL and NWA furlough...either you really are upset about a failed interview or you are just out to blow b/s.....you cannot see the future.

 

[ATRCA]

Someone must have pissed in your cereal....a merger can work if thought out...did not see DAL and NWA furlough...either you really are upset about a failed interview or you are just out to blow b/s.....you cannot see the future.

DAL hasn't furloughed yet, they are losing millions and will continue. You gonna "think the merger out"?? make it all good for us?? Why do want it so bad? Tell us all that? I can promise you that I have never applied to UAL. When I was young, UAL was probably the worlds premier airline. By the time I was in a position to apply to legacies UAL was a complete $hithole thanks to Tilton and crew. Keep your head in the sand if you like but the history of airline mergers is available for your review. Our employee groups will fight with each other for decades, there will be animosity and the place will become simply rotten, the company will shrink and it will only be capable of servicing it's massive debt in BK.

Start asking the CAL crews you run into if they want a merger. Ask them to be honest with you and then get back to me about how well this is gonna play out.

 

[get2flyin]

God this board can be funny! UAL is toast! 8 billion more in debt thanks to Tilton and nothing to show for it- except for more red ink, older employees and aging airplanes. WIthout a doubt, UAL is going bk and CAL is positioning itself to pick the good stuff from the carcass. Why else would CAL be so involved with such a hopeless airline?

Funny, people use to say that about USAirways. Oh, wait...that was different, right?

 

[whymeworry?]

3000 more pilots? What a joke! You can't be serious. No merger has EVER LEAD TO HIRING IN THE HISTORY OF THE WORLD! and this one won't either. There will be at least 1200 furloughes. CALALPA has already hinted about reductions at both companies should they merge.

Furloughs and workforce poison, that's what you're gonna get. I'll throw in a fist fight here and there for good measure too. This merger will be like all of it's predecessors, it will create wealthy executives who will all be on a 5 year exit plan, the employees will forever blame one another for their woes and the company will bleed cash and shrink. That's been the formula for decades in this industry. Anyone who thinks otherwise is foolish.

You're probably right. But the reason for the need for so many additional pilots demonstrates how severely tightly staffed Continental is as an airline. It has been that way for the past 20 yrs. They rely on the scab-mentality (Me, me, me) which has permeated into the pilot group over the years (but that is changing rather rapidly). By that I mean they rely on pilots to be their staffing-error safety valve. In summer '08 some Captains were falling overthemselves to fly in the right seat at the company's 150% pay offer despite our airline being less than 30 days away from a furlough. I had a few 4-stripers show up as my right-seaters who gave me all the excuses in the world why they were there that day to justify their abhorant behavior (crew-scheduling JM's me, my kid is sick so I needed to trade for this trip, etc). And some of these guys were former COEX pilots. I would have expected more from these guys. CAL mgmt knows there are enough pilots who will pick up any slack in staffing screw-ups so we've always needed more crews. UAL pilots think differently. THAT is how they got that stellar contract in 2000.

But like I said, it is changing around here. A lot of scabs have left and with 1500+ new pilots on property in the last few years the mentality is starting to shift to that of a true unionist-airline once again. But it will still take more time until we get a chance to demonstrate that effectively. I'm not sure the exact number but I think we're down to 300 scabs now... so they're way of thinking is no longer a dominant influence.

 

[whymeworry?]

DAL hasn't furloughed yet, they are losing millions and will continue. You gonna "think the merger out"?? make it all good for us?? Why do want it so bad? Tell us all that? I can promise you that I have never applied to UAL. When I was young, UAL was probably the worlds premier airline. By the time I was in a position to apply to legacies UAL was a complete $hithole thanks to Tilton and crew. Keep your head in the sand if you like but the history of airline mergers is available for your review. Our employee groups will fight with each other for decades, there will be animosity and the place will become simply rotten, the company will shrink and it will only be capable of servicing it's massive debt in BK.

Start asking the CAL crews you run into if they want a merger. Ask them to be honest with you and then get back to me about how well this is gonna play out.

UAL is hardly a s-hole. They're pay-rates suck and their balance sheet is eff'd up but they still have pheonomenal work rules in comparison to CAL and other carriers. Plus, who's balance sheet isn't toast these days. We're all swimming in a pool of filth in this industry (save for SWA, FDX and UPS). Its just that some are about to drown in it and some are merely treading water.

 

[whymeworry?]

God this board can be funny! UAL is toast! 8 billion more in debt thanks to Tilton and nothing to show for it- except for more red ink, older employees and aging airplanes. WIthout a doubt, UAL is going bk and CAL is positioning itself to pick the good stuff from the carcass. Why else would CAL be so involved with such a hopeless airline?[/QUOTE]

Because CAL had no choice. DAL would've dominated every decision in Skyteam and CAL would've likely been out of business in 5 yrs (or severly shrunk) as a result. This was explained in great detail by our execs and union reps. Corporate customers is where the money is and they want clout when it comes to mileage loyalty. So CAL had a choice between gambling with Skyteam, signing up with OneWorld (American would've have chopped up CAL if that happened and there was too much overlap) or joining Star. I'm not particularly impressed with Star Alliance either but it's not like we had any other options.

RA started this consolidation phase... we're all along for the ride. Glad he got his $13.2 million. Funny how his shareholders got the shaft though. Caveat emptor when it comes to airline investing though, right?

 

[whymeworry?]

Well I am all for keeping United's work rules but I don't want CAL's current pay rates OR UAL's current pay rates. It would not surprise me at all if there is a "merger" contract already written....in some drawer somewhere.

I don't want UAL's rates either but CALs is much better from where I sit. In fact CALs is even better than The General's beloved Delta.

I'll be losing my left seat position soon (result of so many reduction bids) so I'm getting reacquainted with right seat pay-rates once again. I was surprised when I compared our pay-rates to UAL and DAL the other day. Just go to airlinepilotcentral.com. But I suppose it depends on where you sit. For me, it won't be as much of a pay reduction as I initially thought.

No contract is worked out yet... not on the union side anyway. The two NCs don't even communicate. It will take 3-6 mos for a deal to get worked out by both NCs and approved by both MECs before a "merger contract" is developed.

 

[Fly2AK]

It is funny how so many people are certain they know the fate of UAL, CAL, US Airways, DAL, ect.......No one really knows but I feel those that are certain UAL is toast are actually the ones hopeful they are. While on US airways property I heards for a couple years how the US Air group had maybe months to live yet here it is several years later and they are still here, my friends are still there and still earning a paycheck. All the doom and gloom managed to do is stress the hell out of my family. We can all speculate, but all those who think they know what is going to happen, I would like to know why they haven't made millions from the stock market if they are so business savy with all this insight. Time will tell the fate of all the US carriers, none of the carriers are in great shape and the carriers that traditionally were in great shape have had to take notice of the current economics of the airline industry.

 

[St. Nic]

Funny, people use to say that about USAirways. Oh, wait...that was different, right?

Way different, pal. Glad you recognized it!