To finalize this great thread, let's hear our "expert" MB comment on this settlement:
link
The AA/US - DOJ Settlement.
Very, Very Troubling, But For A Lot of Different Reasons -
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But First, Let's Sink A Couple of Holiday Travel Myths...
Thanksgiving - No, There Won't Be Any More Flights Than Usual...
Fewer, Actually
Identify These Data: Down half of one percent. Up one-point-one percent.
The first is the difference in airline flights for the ten-day Thanksgiving period in 2013 v 2012. Yes, less
flights this year. The second is the difference in seat capacity, which will change very slightly due simply to fleet changes, not any airline industry intent to bulk-up seats for the holiday. Fact is, they aren't doing much if anything to meet the supposed "travel rush" that the media hypes every year. Regardless of lore to the contrary, scheduled airlines this year are not - repeat
not - adding capacity to meet the supposed Thanksgiving "crush."
Hard Numbers. Not Hype. Take a look at the ten days around Thanksgiving this year v 2012. Due to average aircraft size changes, seats are up just 1.1% - statistical noise. And flights offered - i.e., flights in the sky - will be
down. These are facts - as filed by scheduled passenger airlines with our partner, Innovata LLC and analyzed by Aviation DataMiner.
Thanksgiving 10-Day Period 2013 v 2012
Source: Aviation DataMiner Analysis of Data From Innovata LLC
No Increase In Flights - Therefore, No Increase In Propensity For Flight Delays. Fact: the breathless, me-too media stories we'll be seeing about the "expected" Thanksgiving "flight delays" are mostly un-researched pabulum. Certainly, the highways will see more cars, but the skies do not see more airplanes. So, the prognostications of holiday-induced flight delays are built entirely on sloppy reporting.
Nearly 5% Fewer Flights Than Non-Holiday Periods. In that same regard, what many of the media stories leave out is that there are typically
fewer seats and fewer flights in the skies over the Thanksgiving day period than usual - airlines actually pull capacity. Take a look at the ten-day period before Thanksgiving compared to the ten-day holiday period:
Summary of The Myths. Message to the media: over the holiday period, there are three key fact areas that are in play. Try to consider them:
- First, airlines will not be putting more airplanes in the sky this holiday compared to last year. So, you might want to consider that when you do the oh-so-exciting, reporter-live-from-the-airport pieces.
- Second, there are fewer flights in the sky over the holiday period than normal. That means try to avoid the breathless stories of "jam-packed" flights. It's not materially worse - volume-wise - than other weeks of the year. Flights will be full - just like the rest of the year... the days of a "holiday travel rush" at airports ended a decade ago. Airlines typically are at 80% and above load factors, anyway. Which means at peak periods, they are full - holiday or not.
- And, finally, there isn't a higher propensity for delays over the Thanksgiving period than any other time of the year. Less, actually because carriers are putting fewer, not more, flying machines into the sky. Back in 2007, the Bush Administration stuck its foot in its mouth by grandly announcing that it would open military air space to commercial flights over the holiday. The fact that it was normally open, and there were no additional flights scheduled in the sky tended to make one wonder who was feeding W the talking points. (He also announced higher compensation for oversales, and nobody yet has figured out how that had anything to do with air traffic control issues.)
To be sure, the traffic mix will change. More kids. More strollers. More less-than-experienced travelers that can slow the process. But that's marginal - and it does not affect the number of airplanes in the sky from an ATC perspective. Thanksgiving flights have the same potential for being off-schedule as flights on any other day.
A couple years ago, one network stationed a correspondent "live" at the FAA Herndon facility, to "get the facts out as soon as those Thanksgiving flight delays started..."
She got pretty bored.
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The AA/US DOJ Lawsuit:
The Real Messages Are Most Disturbing
It's about as obvious as a blemish on prom night that the settlement of the DOJ's suit against the AA/US merger was basically to get the feds off the hook from what was a very embarrassing political misstep.
But what is most disturbing about this DOJ suit is what it revealed about the people filing it.
Point One: The Sloppy Complaint Document. Anybody with a sense of integrity and a knowledge of the airline industry could tell on one reading that the DOJ complaint was tossed together by amateurs and done very hastily. Instead of using hard actual fare data, they took
screen shots of fare availability off of a website, and used it to "prove" that fares would go up. The use of the "HHI" was another sign of absolute ignorance of the airline industry, as that alleged index has little application within the realities of the US air transportation system - which is far from one open to easy competition.
Point Two: The Preparation Time Requested. Another indication the suit was filed in political haste was the DOJ's request for seven months to "prepare." Think about it - they spent time and taxpayer money filing a suit, and then admitted they were clueless about the facts of the matter. Of course, another strategy may have been to delay the trial in order to kill the merger. That's even worse than not being prepared - it was using bureaucracy to deny the defendant's day in court. Keep in mind that this is the
government doing it. You know, the people who are supposed to be open, honest and forthright.
Point Three: Refusal of A Government Agency To Provide Data. The DOJ - which supposedly represents the people, and is supposedly in the most "transparent" Administration in history - refused to make public requested documents that involved their prior merger decisions. Remember again - this is
not two private citizens bantering in court - it is the government of the people refusing to make public documents involving their own decisions. Worse, a Master appointed by the Court sided with the DOJ. But that doesn't change the truth:
the Administration refused to make public documents that related to decisions made affecting the public. Welcome to the Third World.
Point Four: The Settlement Delivers Minor - Very Minor - Consumer Changes. The comment attributed to Attorney General Holder that the settlement will change the landscape of the airline industry is about as credible as his boss telling folks they could keep their current health care plans if they wanted. First, the 44 flights (out of approximately 270) that will go to other carriers at DCA will still be mostly monopoly routes, not new competition as Holder implies.
Second, freeing a couple of gates at a few airports won't change any air traffic landscapes. At a couple of the airports involved, there is no gate shortage. At ORD, two gates won't cause fares to plummet, either. And the two gates AA agreed to give up at DAL are a joke. American has consistently lost its shirt trying to put mainline flights at Love. Those gates have been financial vapor-holes for American every time they tried using them. The hoot is that if Delta gets those gates permanently, it will be mostly to make life tough for Southwest - one of those Holder-anointed LCCs - when the Wright Amendment goes away next year. Any other
new entrant to the DFW Metroplex would be nuts to take them. DFW International draws traffic from the entire region. Dallas/Love accesses less than half - and virtually none of the traffic in the fast-growing areas west and north of DFW.