To those of you considering this profession

[Flying Ninja]

yes but when the hiring boom of 2018 makes him think of "Catch me if you can", the grass always looks a little greener on the outside, seen too many guys do it,

Hiring boom of 2018? Now it's 2018? I thought it was 2008, then it was 2011, then 2012, now 2018? Truth is, nobody knows when this "boom" is going to happen and any suggestion for a speculative time frame is foolish hope.

 

[pilotyip]

Boom!! 2012!!

It is the hiring boom of 2012, we just lost another pilot to another better job, and it is starting and will only accelerate as we approach December of 2012 peaking around May 23, 2013. However there will be hiring slump in the 2015-16 era that is followed by the next hiring boom. BTW don't forget I projected in Sept 2004 that we would see a hiring boom in June of 2007. There are patterns to this just like the stock market. Having been looking for jobs in this business for nearly 35 years, you pick up trends.

 

[Flying Ninja]

So now it's 2012 again. Make up your mind. I agree there are trends but I think the missing piece of information is that it's SPECULATION. If you're so sure, wire me $100,000 and when that boom hits in 2018, I'll give it back to ya. Still care to speculate?

 

[pilotyip]

of course

So now it's 2012 again. Make up your mind. I agree there are trends but I think the missing piece of information is that it's SPECULATION. If you're so sure, wire me $100,000 and when that boom hits in 2018, I'll give it back to ya. Still care to speculate?

Not for a $100K too much a risk, I not would risk that much in the stock market on a sure bet. It would be like buying gold. You could be 90% right, not able to accept the 10% downside, 2018 is too far out but if you are gentleman you will enter into a bet with me about 2012. Here is the offer is hiring in 2012 is not 3 times what is today, I will self ban myself from this site for 60 days. If I am right you ban your self for 60 days. How sure are you I am wrong?

 

[Flying Ninja]

My point is speculation is dangerous for someone who is planning their training-to-career expectations. There may be a very, very large gap between graduation and your first hire. What do you do while you're waiting for that ship to come in? That's the point I'm trying to make here.

Let's say I plan myself to get all my certificates, take out money (savings or loan), work hard and get all my certificates and ratings. It's 2012. The hiring landscape is drier than the Sahara. Now what? Didn't pilotyip say 2012 is it? What do I do now? I'm out of money. I have bills to pay. The lender wants their money. I'm jobless. What do I do with myself now? How did this go so terribly wrong? How could pilotyip be wrong with his 2012 pilot hiring boom statement? I planned my life on it!

Not that it really makes a difference with a whopping $18,000 a year job, industry wide and well known instability, zero job security, and the potential to be a career FO going nowhere fast. I'm hearing more and more stories of people getting out of this career than getting in.

 

[pilotyip]

go with the odds

My point is speculation is dangerous for someone who is planning their training-to-career expectations. There may be a very, very large gap between graduation and your first hire. What do you do while you're waiting for that ship to come in? That's the point I'm trying to make here.

Let's say I plan myself to get all my certificates, take out money (savings or loan), work hard and get all my certificates and ratings. It's 2012. The hiring landscape is drier than the Sahara. Now what? Didn't pilotyip say 2012 is it? What do I do now? I'm out of money. I have bills to pay. The lender wants their money. I'm jobless. What do I do with myself now? How did this go so terribly wrong? How could pilotyip be wrong with his 2012 pilot hiring boom statement? I planned my life on it!

Not that it really makes a difference with a whopping $18,000 a year job, industry wide and well known instability, zero job security, and the potential to be a career FO going nowhere fast. I'm hearing more and more stories of people getting out of this career than getting in.

There is much better chance that person who elects not to get his rating will miss the boat than there is of people getting there ratings and finding no jobs. It is a safe risk, like buying oil stocks when oil is selling a $38/brl. And so what if you start at $18K, you are paying your dues. It takes around 10 years to work into a career position; I have mentored far many pilots and am well aware of how a career tracks. This much like 2002 in the posts back then all the talk was the jobs are never coming back, guess what a funny thing happened on the way no jobs ever again. In this is much like 1973, 1982, and 1993. If someone is looking for a sure thing, the only sure things in life are death and taxes. BTW What if I had posted to buy oil stocks when oil was selling at $38/brl, would you ask me for a guranettee that you would not loose money? BTW2 ready to bet?

 

[Flying Ninja]

I'm not arguing about putting your dues in. I know people who have worked hard, spent a TON of money, are in severe debt, got into the regional airlines, and got furloughed in less than a year. Guess what? They still have to pay back the money they borrowed. With what income? So they left the flying career in pursuit of other more stable, better paid, careers.

What would you say to these people now? Would you suggest that they starve, default on their loans, ruin their credit, so that they can wait for that 2018 or whatever hiring boom hits?

There is no such thing as a sure thing. But I also know that if you're looking for something that's "surer", well, the career pilot is NOT it. You just don't hear about starving lawyers, doctors, nurses, engineers, construction workers, plumbers, cops, firemen, etc. You do hear a bunch of nightmare stories of getting into big debt chasing the big shiny planes and finding yourself crashing into the oceans of reality.

Out of curiosity, how are you selling this flying career to those aspiring these days? Every time someone asks me about how to get into the career, I advise them to:

1. Forget being an airline pilot.
2. Find another vocation.
3. Get your pilot's certificate because you want to fly for FUN.

I will never recommend this career path to my worst enemies. It's the equivalent of giving a toddler a loaded gun.

And by the way, one can swallow losing a few hundred dollars buying into oil or other commodities as an investment risk. When you shell out $100,000 on flight training getting ripped off, with no jobs, well, sucks to be you! And when you're there, nobody cares. Trust me. Been there, done that, got the t-shirt. And I do recall someone telling me that 2005 was going to be the start of the big hiring boom and how they're going to need 12,000 pilots!

 

[pilotyip]

Signaturte line

Out of curiosity, how are you selling this flying career to those aspiring these days? Every time someone asks me about how to get into the career, I advise them to:

When you shell out $100,000 on flight training getting ripped off, with no jobs, !

I recommended this career to my son he is doing fine, I am recommending it my grandson, he will do fine. Read my signature line it says it all, if like to fly this is the greatest job in the world. I have never met anyone who spent 100K to get their ratings, it must be one those college program things you are talking about, and college has nothing to do with flying an airplane

 

[Flying Ninja]

Glad it's working out for your family tree. Some of us are not so lucky. And my point is, putting out speculation on when pilot hiring will boom is harmful.

I went to a pilot factory who promised me job interviews. They produced zero. Water under the bridge now. End result is they produced someone who will never recommend this career to anyone, and have gathered enough media and real life stories to make one want to vomit to prove it's a bad decision.

 

[pilotyip]

to each his/her own

Glad it's working out for your family tree. Some of us are not so lucky. And my point is, putting out speculation on when pilot hiring will boom is harmful.

I went to a pilot factory who promised me job interviews. They produced zero. Water under the bridge now. End result is they produced someone who will never recommend this career to anyone, and have gathered enough media and real life stories to make one want to vomit to prove it's a bad decision.

Best of luck, sorry you are disenchanted. I am still living the dream of a five year old.

 

[filejw]

YIP Ive read your stuff before and I agree with you , except why not just say not needed but really required. This business is hard enough without starting off with * next to your name..JW
PS Me too... its been really great and I'm really lucky to have a good job. Nothing Iv done...

 

[pilotyip]

college?

YIP Ive read your stuff before and I agree with you , except why not just say not needed but really required. This business is hard enough without starting off with * next to your name..JW
PS Me too... its been really great and I'm really lucky to have a good job. Nothing Iv done...

were you referring to college? why not just say not needed but really required I agree many ways to skin a cat, doing it on-line while flying would be one way to do it. Man would I love to get one of these discussions going again.

 

[Talian]

I think one of the big factors to understand is?? Do I really love flying? Or do I want to also make a decent living in the time leading up to a job that actually pays decent in aviation. The reason I mention this is there are alot of other professions that allow you to make much better gains financially than aviation. Even if one makes it and lets say make six figures, how long did it take them to get there. I think the bottom line is they best really love flying. The pay that ninety percent of pilots make is absolutely embarassing.

 

[VW Pilot]

I regret not joining the Airforce...Bummer.