• NC Software is proud to announce the release of APDL - Airline Pilot Logbook version 10.0. Click here to view APDL on the Apple App store and install now.
  • Logbook Pro for Apple iOS version 8.1 is now available on the App Store. Major update including signature endorsements and dark/light theme support. Click here to install now.

The Pilot Shortage is here! Part 597

Dornier 335

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 3, 2005
Posts
1,089
Total Time
10300
Seriously!!

link

Is the industry facing a pilot shortage?

Japanese airlines are having to cancel schedules because they have too few flightcrew. American *****carriers, especially regionals, have the same problem. Ryanair is having to migrate crew around its network to patch up holes in local rosters.
Gulf carrier Etihad Airways, meanwhile, plans to acquire a local training academy, thus guaranteeing a steady flow of recruits for its own operation.
It is reasonable to ask whether the shortages are local issues caused by bad planning or something more general. A pilot shortage has been predicted for nearly 15 years but never seemed to arrive.
There is now, however, a growing nervousness about whether it is finally happening, because all the reasons why the previously predicted shortages failed to materialise since about 2000 are no longer applicable. The successive reprieves were the result of the travel slump after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the SARS crisis in 2003, the extension of the pilot working age from 60 to 65 in 2006, and the 2008 banking crisis.
There has also been the general move by all airlines to squeeze more flying hours out of pilots by tighter rostering and faster turnarounds. But now all that has happened, there is no more juice in the lemon.
Meanwhile the world?s economies are returning to steady growth, and airlines appear on a more robust financial footing too. The order backlog for single-aisles alone stands at over 8,000 aircraft, of which over 3,000 are on firm order for the fast-growing low-cost carrier sector.
And while some of these aircraft are for replacement, the reality is that the bulk of deliveries will be for growth. Airbus expects that over the next 20 years airlines will absorb 28,000 new airliners and retain around 5,000 of the aircraft they are flying today. So if Toulouse is right ? and Boeing sees similar growth -? the mainline airliner fleet will have to double from 16,000 aircraft today to over 33,000.
The vast majority of these aircraft ? 24,600 ? will be narrowbody Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 types. And assuming that short-haul fleets require an average of three sets of crew per aircraft, that means that by 2032 the world?s airlines will have to employ upwards of 147,000 A320 and 737 rated pilots. That compares with an estimated 33,000 such pilots today, applying the same metrics.
This short-haul pilot requirement estimate alone is a figure that is not only eye-watering but potentially challenging on many levels, from recruitment, to training, to oversight. And it?s not rocket science to work out where a large portion of these pilots will be located.
So pilots are needed, not just for the status quo, but for growth in a marketplace where no more flightcrew time savings can be made.
The Japan example is difficult to judge. Is it a demographic product of Japan?s ageing population, quiescent economy and falling birth rate? It is too early to judge.
The American example is easier to understand, being a self-inflicted condition resulting from the law passed by Congress after the 2009 Colgan Air crash at Buffalo. It required that FAR Part 121 airline pilots must have 1,500h experience before their hiring. Congress not only failed to question whether hours alone produced quality, but also how enough pilots would get the hours if no one was allowed to hire them.
Pilot unions say there are plenty of unemployed qualified pilots out there, arguing this means there is no panic. But just because a pilot has a licence it does not mean they are good, so a fair proportion of those remaining will not pass muster.
The next test for the industry is finding the instructors the training sector will need to meet the growing demand for well-trained, fresh pilots.
The pilot shortage is here, but, as with climate change, there are still unhelpful deniers.
 

wingnutt

...recognize this?
Joined
Mar 31, 2002
Posts
1,077
Total Time
+30yrs
Seriously!!
The pilot shortage is here, but, as with climate change, there are still unhelpful deniers.

lemme guess...does a mythical 97% of "industry experts" agree with the man-made-pilot-shortage?!?
 

begsby

Well-known member
Joined
May 13, 2004
Posts
73
Total Time
9600
Shortage is inevitable when management sucks all the joy and benefits from the industry.
 

livin'thesim

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 6, 2005
Posts
926
Total Time
.
Seriously!!
The pilot shortage is here, but, as with climate change, there are still unhelpful deniers.

I think someone misspelled the word "skeptics".

I understand that people of moderate scientific literacy buy into ideological arguments with nothing more than reading about it in the news, but some people require a more credible level of scientific rigor before buying into the hype.
 

CX880

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 19, 2006
Posts
2,861
Total Time
1898
Shortage is inevitable when management sucks all the joy and benefits from the industry.

It's too late, the industry is going to implode in a bit. They need to not just raise pay but raise benefits too. But prevention has never been the business mindset of airline management. Good luck.
 

FR8mastr

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 4, 2002
Posts
803
Total Time
13000+
I noticed the reason all the qualified pilots (1500 hrs) are NOT employed is because they could not pass muster. Not at all about them NOT being able to pay rent on the wages being offered.
 

atpcliff

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 26, 2001
Posts
4,260
Total Time
6000
Just got an email yesterday. The highest base pay for E-190 Captains in China just increased from $19.5 per month to $20.4/month. China has been increasing pay for several years now for expat captains....The highest base pay for ERJ-145 Captains is only $15.5/month.

I read that some US regional airlines are experiencing significant attrition to Asian carriers...I'm sure that situation will accelerate.
 

jmreii

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 15, 2006
Posts
584
Total Time
11,600
Seriously!!

link

Is the industry facing a pilot shortage?

Japanese airlines are having to cancel schedules because they have too few flightcrew. American *****carriers, especially regionals, have the same problem. Ryanair is having to migrate crew around its network to patch up holes in local rosters.
Gulf carrier Etihad Airways, meanwhile, plans to acquire a local training academy, thus guaranteeing a steady flow of recruits for its own operation.
It is reasonable to ask whether the shortages are local issues caused by bad planning or something more general. A pilot shortage has been predicted for nearly 15 years but never seemed to arrive.
There is now, however, a growing nervousness about whether it is finally happening, because all the reasons why the previously predicted shortages failed to materialise since about 2000 are no longer applicable. The successive reprieves were the result of the travel slump after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the SARS crisis in 2003, the extension of the pilot working age from 60 to 65 in 2006, and the 2008 banking crisis.
There has also been the general move by all airlines to squeeze more flying hours out of pilots by tighter rostering and faster turnarounds. But now all that has happened, there is no more juice in the lemon.
Meanwhile the world?s economies are returning to steady growth, and airlines appear on a more robust financial footing too. The order backlog for single-aisles alone stands at over 8,000 aircraft, of which over 3,000 are on firm order for the fast-growing low-cost carrier sector.
And while some of these aircraft are for replacement, the reality is that the bulk of deliveries will be for growth. Airbus expects that over the next 20 years airlines will absorb 28,000 new airliners and retain around 5,000 of the aircraft they are flying today. So if Toulouse is right ? and Boeing sees similar growth -? the mainline airliner fleet will have to double from 16,000 aircraft today to over 33,000.
The vast majority of these aircraft ? 24,600 ? will be narrowbody Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 types. And assuming that short-haul fleets require an average of three sets of crew per aircraft, that means that by 2032 the world?s airlines will have to employ upwards of 147,000 A320 and 737 rated pilots. That compares with an estimated 33,000 such pilots today, applying the same metrics.
This short-haul pilot requirement estimate alone is a figure that is not only eye-watering but potentially challenging on many levels, from recruitment, to training, to oversight. And it?s not rocket science to work out where a large portion of these pilots will be located.
So pilots are needed, not just for the status quo, but for growth in a marketplace where no more flightcrew time savings can be made.
The Japan example is difficult to judge. Is it a demographic product of Japan?s ageing population, quiescent economy and falling birth rate? It is too early to judge.
The American example is easier to understand, being a self-inflicted condition resulting from the law passed by Congress after the 2009 Colgan Air crash at Buffalo. It required that FAR Part 121 airline pilots must have 1,500h experience before their hiring. Congress not only failed to question whether hours alone produced quality, but also how enough pilots would get the hours if no one was allowed to hire them.
Pilot unions say there are plenty of unemployed qualified pilots out there, arguing this means there is no panic. But just because a pilot has a licence it does not mean they are good, so a fair proportion of those remaining will not pass muster.
The next test for the industry is finding the instructors the training sector will need to meet the growing demand for well-trained, fresh pilots.
The pilot shortage is here, but, as with climate change, there are still unhelpful deniers.



I know many Vietnam era military pilots who flew for the major/legacy carriers in the 1970's and 1980's and quit after a few years because these jobs didn't pay s##t. These same pilots are laughing all the way to the bank everyday because of the great decisions they made years ago. Too bad the current generation isn't as smart!
 

MDWCrashPad

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 20, 2004
Posts
52
Total Time
15000+
The word "shortage" is a political term, not an economic one. In a free market when demand for something increases, in this case a pilot, the price goes up until the supply and demand curves are in balance. In our case the pay for a pilot should be going up and then more people with enter the field in response.

The airlines, at the regional level, have all come to an agreement as to what the pilots will be paid (violative of anti trust laws). They make minor adjustments for per diem in training and hotels but they are all in lockstep as to pay currently with differences that are not really seen in the pay sheets (trip regs, etc.).

By holding the pay down few people are coming into the profession because few can afford it as they will only make 20,000 a year when they are done. Now the "shortage" begins to develop, but are you seeing the regional pay increase as airlines compete for pilots? No. What the airlines want to do is to get the government to fund a system that will produce pilots so that they may continue to pay peanuts. They want the "shortage" (political term) so they can get the government to create this system, and they will.

There are solutions. It can be made public that despite this "shortage" the airlines have kept the pay virtually unchanged for the last 30 years. The unions could advertise to the public what the pay is and ask the public if they feel comfortable with a pilot who makes 20,000 a year and has to work a second job in order to eat? Eighteen Hundred a month with a thousand per month for student loans doesn't leave much. Thank god for the second job. Who needs the sleep!

And for someone based in NY, where is someone going to live on that 800 a month that remains? So everyone commutes from low cost areas which is good because they all get to sleep on the plane during the commute.

How about having a federal prosecutor investigate the airlines for their lock-step pay agreement? I guess I should be doing that but it probably won't do much without some congressman taking the issue under his belt. Maybe people could write a letter to their congressman pointing out the "shortage"/no pay increase conundrum? Or perhaps just copy and send this post.

There will be another Colgan if the airlines are able to stay in lockstep and not let the price of a regional pilot to go up with the free market. In what other job does an American have to go to Nigeria, the Philippines, Panama, India, Ethiopia or other third world country to make a living?
 

atpcliff

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 26, 2001
Posts
4,260
Total Time
6000
The word "shortage" is a political term, not an economic one. In a free market when demand for something increases, in this case a pilot, the price goes up until the supply and demand curves are in balance. In our case the pay for a pilot should be going up and then more people with enter the field in response.

The problem here is that banks aren't loaning money for flight training, so it doesn't matter what the pay is, there won't be enough pilots. IF the banks started loaning money again, then it could change. OR, UAL/AA/DAL could loan the money for the new pilots, OR UAL/AA/DAL could pay for the new pilot's training. Any of the above 3 would work.
 

livin'thesim

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 6, 2005
Posts
926
Total Time
.
MDW Crashpad:

To a point, yes, but shortage can become an economic term when political activity like price controls are in place. Price controls will create shortages. See Venezuela under this new clown that followed Chavez.
 

CX880

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 19, 2006
Posts
2,861
Total Time
1898

Rerouted

What Dream?
Joined
Dec 18, 2001
Posts
198
Total Time
4000+
There is ABSOLUTELY a shortage of pilots....willing to work for poverty wages with substandard work rules. There are better ways to make a living.
 
Top